Thunderstorms w/IFR. Go high and dodge the large buildups or go low IMC?

JasonM

Pattern Altitude
Joined
Mar 24, 2012
Messages
1,837
Location
West Virginia
Display Name

Display name:
JM
I will make my own call, but looking to see what you guys think you would prefer if planning a trip in these conditions.

I would normally just stay low and dodge the storms, but looking at the forecasts tomorrow, they are predicting some IFR and low ceilings along with thunderstorms that will have tops upwards of FL350-FL400.

Would if be any easier to dodge around FL200 or would you prefer to stay low but likely IMC? I've never tried dodging storms from above. Am I wrong to assume that most of the clouds would not top out like the storm clouds?
 
You only want to get to close to a thunderstorm once. Use the system to your advantage,file and let atc help you avoid the storms.
 
CBs are easy to visually navigate around if you're on top of the layer. IMC with embedded CBs requires some source of real time weather (NOT XM or ADS-B!). Unless you just enjoy betting your life.

Above the layer, it's bright, sunny and the build ups are obvious. Below the layer it's variably darker, and you can spot the rain from CBs but cannot see where things are building up.
 
What airplane? I view storms differently when in a single piston versus the PC-12.

Edit: looking at your sig, id assume its an SR22T. If you had oxygen, id try to thread the needle between buildups. I will never go IMC into an area with heavy to extreme precip.
 
The few times I've been within 30 miles of a thunderstorm, I've kept the storms in sight. The ride at higher altitudes has been much better than the ride down low.

The one place I really don't want to be (other than inside the thunderstorm) is in a solid layer with embedded thunderstorms. If I can see'em I can avoid'em. If I can't see'em then I'm trusting ATC (hello Crossfield) and old processed radar data to keep me out of trouble.
 
What do you think the odds are of being VMC above most of the clouds (not the storms) at FL200-FL240? It will be in the SR22T with oxygen.
 
Take a look at the skew-t forecast, that should give you some idea where the tops will be, or where you can be between layers. FWIW, dodging buildup was exactly what I did on the way home from Wings. At 9000 they were easy to spot and avoid.
f2db8b4b68a62ea228a7072fca0893e5.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Well I can officially say that I know what it's like both above and below, FINALLY! :)

I also preferred above. Now I can only speak to flying around scattered CB with a semi-solid layer below. And only went to 10k, but that was SOOO much better than running underneath and sometimes having to dip down even lower when the cig's started to fall.

x2PUhoTl.jpg
 
Even in PC12 I don't like to mess with a thunderstorm, I'll go around, I'm not going under it, and topping some of the nasty ones car be hard even in a turbine.

Stay at least 25nm away, if you're climbing over it think the saying is 1,000 above it for every 10kts of wind in the cloud tops.


What do you think the odds are of being VMC above most of the clouds (not the storms) at FL200-FL240? It will be in the SR22T with oxygen.

Sounds like you need to go around, or go on a airliner.
 
In the SE US, flying with T-storms is required if traveling anywhere in the summer.
CBs are easy to visually navigate around if you're on top of the layer. IMC with embedded CBs requires some source of real time weather (NOT XM or ADS-B!). Unless you just enjoy betting your life.

Above the layer, it's bright, sunny and the build ups are obvious. Below the layer it's variably darker, and you can spot the rain from CBs but cannot see where things are building up.
Yep, I'm always headed for somewhere on top of cloud base. If I can't get there, it's not flyable.

I did embedded storms once. Never again. I'm thinking it can be done in certain circumstances with XM/ADSB Nexrad but I've never even been tempted and don't plan to be.
The few times I've been within 30 miles of a thunderstorm, I've kept the storms in sight. The ride at higher altitudes has been much better than the ride down low.
Well I've been a lot closer than that without a worry... I've also stayed further away without a worry. They are not all the same and you can safely make certain judgements as long as you stay VMC while using Nexrad to calibrate your eyeballs and look around corners.
What do you think the odds are of being VMC above most of the clouds (not the storms) at FL200-FL240? It will be in the SR22T with oxygen.
I think you need to ease into summer T-storm conditions and get some experience. It's not about odds, it's about staying VMC or getting the heck out. You can bust a corner here and a layer there as long as you know what's on the other side but staying mostly visual with deviations and reroutes is key. I rarely fly above 11k and never get over 15k. I do what I need to do to stay VMC between the buildups. If I could get up to 20K+ I would be in heaven but it's not required.
Even in PC12 I don't like to mess with a thunderstorm, I'll go around, I'm not going under it, and topping some of the nasty ones car be hard even in a turbine.

Stay at least 25nm away, if you're climbing over it think the saying is 1,000 above it for every 10kts of wind in the cloud tops.
I am incapable of topping anything that needs to be avoided but I can almost always go around. If it's a solid line, turn around and land. If it's moving, wait it out. If it's stationary, look for the nearest breach and try there but always with a way to turn back and land. Going IMC to try a weak spot is definitely not recommended.

Before cockpit Nexrad and sans onboard radar, depending on ATC was all there was. I flew 'back then' and frankly scared the crap out of myself once or twice. With Nexrad, there's no excuse for ending up over your head as long as you stay mostly VMC. And while you should get a much help as you can from ATC, never depend on them. In the end the only thing they are required to do is to keep traffic separated. But again, they are a tremendous resource, especially in places like FL (the JAX folks rock!)
 
I flew into what I can only guess was a microburst a little while back over Colorado in a Debonair in IMC (70 plus miles east of the Rockies). At the time I was about 25 miles from any real nasty radar return and was in IMC in what was "green" on the NEXRAD.

I think I was around 8,000 feet MSL, ground level was 4,600 ish. We were flying through some light chop. I was actively communicating with ATC about what they saw on their radar and watching my nexrad feed very closely. I looked down at my iPad for a brief period of time and looked up again to see the S-Tech autopilot's trim alert going off and the airspeed falling rapidly along with the VSI down and the altimeter unwinding. I disconnected the autopilot, shoved the prop to full RPM, and pitched down regain airspeed then informed ATC I was unable to maintain altitude and I'm descending in a full power climb. Down we were coming whether or not I wanted to. Not much I could do other than wish like hell I had a turbo and more displacement. After about 700 ft of altitude loss we regained the ability to maintain altitude.

I then removed the seat from my ass, verified I didn't **** myself, and decided perhaps we should swing about another 20 degrees left. Be careful up there, the moment you think you have things figured out, is the moment mother nature decides to show you that an IO-470 at full power isn't ****.

I never did observe a rapid increase in airspeed before the rapid loss. But perhaps I missed it...
 
Last edited:
I flew into what I can only guess was a microburst a little while back over Colorado in a Debonair in IMC (70 plus miles east of the Rockies). At the time I was about 25 miles from any real nasty radar return and was in IMC in what was "green" on the NEXRAD.

I think I was around 8,000 feet MSL, ground level was 4,600 ish. We were flying through some light chop. I was actively communicating with ATC about what they saw on their radar and watching my nexrad feed very closely. I looked down at my iPad for a brief period of time and looked up again to see the S-Tech autopilot's trim alert going off and the airspeed falling rapidly along with the VSI down and the altimeter unwinding. I disconnected the autopilot, shoved the prop to full RPM, and pitched down regain airspeed then informed ATC I was unable to maintain altitude and I'm descending in a full power climb. Down we were coming whether or not I wanted to. Not much I could do other than wish like hell I had a turbo and more displacement. After about 700 ft of altitude loss we regained the ability to maintain altitude.

I then removed the seat from my ass, verified I didn't **** myself, and decided perhaps we should swing about another 20 degrees left. Be careful up there, the moment you think you have things figured out, is the moment mother nature decides to show you that an IO-470 at full power isn't ****.

I never did observe a rapid increase in airspeed before the rapid loss. But perhaps I missed it...

VERY good point

NEXRAD is OLD data, it's something for big picture planning, but nothing you want to bet on if you're going to be anywhere near convective activity in IMC or night. The wx radar ATC has is more or less the same old info.

A 20 minute old readout, well that's a lifetime for a convective cell.

In those condition, if I don't have radar, as in a active onboard radar system, I won't get anywhere near convective IMC or night conditions.
 
VERY good point

NEXRAD is OLD data, it's something for big picture planning, but nothing you want to bet on if you're going to be anywhere near convective activity in IMC or night. The wx radar ATC has is more or less the same old info.

A 20 minute old readout, well that's a lifetime for a convective cell.

In those condition, if I don't have radar, as in a active onboard radar system, I won't get anywhere near convective IMC or night conditions.

Typically I track the speed of the storm, the direction, and then add significant buffers for the delay. In this case, upon analyzing all the weather later, nothing significant was really ever where I was. Who the hell knows.

Even with onboard radar I've had the weather surprise me. There really is no perfection in this stuff.

I hate to call it a 'practice' but to a degree aviating is. You do what you can to reduce risk, always be willing to learn more, and accept the reality that there is never a guarantee especially when you're dealing with weather.
 
CBs are easy to visually navigate around if you're on top of the layer. IMC with embedded CBs requires some source of real time weather (NOT XM or ADS-B!). Unless you just enjoy betting your life.

Above the layer, it's bright, sunny and the build ups are obvious. Below the layer it's variably darker, and you can spot the rain from CBs but cannot see where things are building up.

:yeahthat:

And the higher, the better.
 
I flew into what I can only guess was a microburst a little while back over Colorado in a Debonair in IMC (70 plus miles east of the Rockies). At the time I was about 25 miles from any real nasty radar return and was in IMC in what was "green" on the NEXRAD.



I think I was around 8,000 feet MSL, ground level was 4,600 ish. We were flying through some light chop. I was actively communicating with ATC about what they saw on their radar and watching my nexrad feed very closely. I looked down at my iPad for a brief period of time and looked up again to see the S-Tech autopilot's trim alert going off and the airspeed falling rapidly along with the VSI down and the altimeter unwinding. I disconnected the autopilot, shoved the prop to full RPM, and pitched down regain airspeed then informed ATC I was unable to maintain altitude and I'm descending in a full power climb. Down we were coming whether or not I wanted to. Not much I could do other than wish like hell I had a turbo and more displacement. After about 700 ft of altitude loss we regained the ability to maintain altitude.



I then removed the seat from my ass, verified I didn't **** myself, and decided perhaps we should swing about another 20 degrees left. Be careful up there, the moment you think you have things figured out, is the moment mother nature decides to show you that an IO-470 at full power isn't ****.



I never did observe a rapid increase in airspeed before the rapid loss. But perhaps I missed it...


That sounds like it could have been a microburst if summertime. Most are dry since the outflow air has given up all its moisture and is now returning to Terra Firma.

Given the distance from the mountains, if it were winter it could also be the line where the downwind mountain wave was hitting the plains.

What were the winds aloft that day? Big westerly? Did you have a nice tailwind?

If it was winter, my money would be on the wave. If summer, microbursts and convective stuff.

The same wave that takes gliders at Boulder into the flight levels in their little box where they're allowed, comes smashing down onto the plains a ways out east of cowtown. People do forget that.

You were further east than my place but I'm outside of the Denver "bowl" to the east and wind, continual wind, is pretty much commonplace here. It's almost rare to not see a standard 4 x 6 flagpole flag standing straight out.

There's also a gap of airports and weather reporting stations from about a north south line from Ft Morgan through Limon where just west of there the stuff is always happening, big summer and winter, but there's nothing there to see or record it. Nothing in that gap until you get to KFTG and that's where the NWS Doppler sits, on a small tower. (FAA/Mil radar sits atop the hill just east of E470 and Smoky Hill Road, much further southwest of FTG.)

Both phenomena happen with "dry" air so they don't show up at well on radar. The Doppler radar folk can sometimes see it if the dry is colliding with moist as a shear and direction change, but I've never seen a way to see that mode of the radar full time. I think they have to manually do that.

In winter, one trick is to go to the NWS Boulder soaring forecast page. (Yep. There's a whole page for that.). If the wave is there, it'll be bouncing off the dirt somewhere out east too.

The really scary stuff is when the microburst is over the approach end of the airport. But I've told that story before and I know Clark has been there, done that, too. Not real fun.

It's always heartwarming to know Dr. Fujita did most of his studies on tornadoes and microbursts at the modern day location of DIA. The F-scale and later of course the EF scale for tornado damage is named after him. ;) I'm still amazed one hasn't ripped the tent off of the terminal roof yet.

Back before it was there if you departed FTG or Aurora Airpark (closed) northbound in summer you were just guaranteed to get your ass kicked in turbulence over where modern day DIA sits.
 
These storms are not associated with cold fronts and are mostly scattered smaller pop up storms. Just to clarify things, I'm not asking nor was I ever planning on flying below, threw or above a thunderstorm. I am flying around them only and was seeking the insight as to if doing that up high may be a better option than down low, especially since down low if some forecast IMC.

Thanks for the posts fellas. Off to the airport to go storm dodging!
 
Looks like one thunderstorm over the mountains to dodge, cloud tops 18-20K, vfr conditions unless one is going over the mountains. As the thunderstorm generator gets going, this afternoon will be a little more exciting. Have fun and fly safe.
 
If I can get over the solid layer I go above. If the solid layer is higher than I or the plane are capable of (no O2 on board) I will go VFR and pick my way around underneath. I won't fly in the solid layer as I don't have radar. If neither is on option. I will wait a few hours, or a day or two.
 
If I can get over the solid layer I go above. If the solid layer is higher than I or the plane are capable of (no O2 on board) I will go VFR and pick my way around underneath. I won't fly in the solid layer as I don't have radar. If neither is on option. I will wait a few hours, or a day or two.

Yes, same here.
 
I don't have radar or O2, but I do have ADSB weather and Stormscope. I use them both, but very often the MarkII eyeballs are just as important in picking out the best deviations. ATC's input is also very useful, although they seem to be seeing similar info.
In my experience so far, ADSB delay is rarely over a few minutes, and I generally look at cell motion and give its predicted position a wide berth.
 
I will make my own call, but looking to see what you guys think you would prefer if planning a trip in these conditions.

I would normally just stay low and dodge the storms, but looking at the forecasts tomorrow, they are predicting some IFR and low ceilings along with thunderstorms that will have tops upwards of FL350-FL400.

Would if be any easier to dodge around FL200 or would you prefer to stay low but likely IMC? I've never tried dodging storms from above. Am I wrong to assume that most of the clouds would not top out like the storm clouds?

WAY better to go high, provided you can get on top. Air is smoother and cooler and you can see the buildups.

If you go low, you need to go low enough to maintain visual separation from the storms. Low and in IMC with t-storms around? Never.

I did have an encounter kind of like Jesse's once, but in the opposite direction - I flew into a cloud just as it decided to become a buildup. With nary a bump, the VSI suddenly did a back flip and pegged at +2000 fpm. With power at idle and the nose down with airspeed approaching Vne I was still climbing like a bat out of hell. Called ATC and let them know I was in an uncontrolled climb, but it went away just as quickly. They said they weren't painting anything on radar... But then a few minutes later, they were. Wrong place, wrong time.
 
Nothing like a surprise climb to get your attention! I reduced throttle and gave her 10° nose down and was still climbing at > 1500 fpm while Center was having a pleasant back-and-forth conversation with a passing airliner. By the time they paused for breath, I was > 10' above my assigned altitude, and continuing to climb.

At least it wasn't a quick descent towards the ground . . .
 
I'm in the go high crowd. Much easier to see and avoid.

I'm in the stay at home crowd. :lol: It's overkill, but it's my personal minimum. Unless I know there is a clean line b/t me and the destination, I won't go. I don't generally fly more than a few hours distance, and I have ADSB and a stormscope. I try to go early or late in the day to avoid convective activity.
 
I had an SR-22 N384SR just fly over descending into HTS from LOU, pulling prop knob back. Thought of OP. Sounded nice. TS dying down in the area. Too bad most went around my vegetable gardens.
 
I go low, I stay VFR underneath so I can see what the energy is doing at the bases, and peak up in the gaps to see what the winds aloft are doing to the anvils, and to see if the towers are played out or building. You have to see the clouds to read the cloud. Safest place I know around convective systems is down on the deck. If it gets bad enough, there's always a road to stick it on, just avoid urban centers.
 
Higher the better for me on longer trips. Avoid the buildups. If its a solid line or squall line, I get on the ground and wait it out. Short trips I stay low and VFR. And use radar and storm scope.

To Jesse's point, I've ridden the mountain waves in NM and AZ more than once. Best thing to do is kick off the AP and ask for a block altitude. Down drafts and outflows are not uncommon up to 50 miles from a big storm.
 
What a day! Today ranks in my top 5.

Almost exactly 1000nm flown between WV and around NC with an afternoon splattered many scattered popup thunderstorms to navigate around.

I went high in the afternoon at 17,000 which got me above most of the clouds and gave me a very clear view of any thunderstorm buildups.

I also got my first taste of what had to be SLD icing. Granted I have a FIKI SR22T, it was -6C and I had what looked like a pretty tame looking cloud in front of me that was maybe another 1000' taller than my alt at 17K. The second I entered it I heard what sounded like heavy rain for a fraction of a second and then I exited the cloud. The windshield glazed over instantly and I looked at the wings (which I already had the TKS system on knowing it was possible known icing) they had a good solid 1/4" of clear ice. It did break apart and slide off from the TKS pretty quickly, but was a real eye opener as to what something like that could have been had you flown in it for any longer of a duration.

I definitely think being up high is better. Days like today down low are bumpy as hell. I couldn't have asked for smoother air up high.

Wonderful flight!
 
Still forecasting SLD up to FL21 at this time. Wow, interesting experience. Glad you made it safely back to Earth.
 
I'm not sure there's any one-size-fits-all answer to this dilemma.

A few years ago in the summer I took a day trip to GLR (Gaylord, MI) from 76G (Marine City, between Detroit and Port Huron), in a rental 182RG. It was a typical August day in Michigan, with scattered buildups and isolated showers in the morning. I stayed low on the way up and had no trouble dodging the convection as it was isolated. By the time I was getting ready to go back, the buildups were all over the mitten, and were maturing into some mean storms with tops over FL350. Worse, the storms were starting to coalesce into solid lines.

There was, that I could see, no way to return VFR by the route I had taken in the morning. I almost resigned myself to spending the night in Gaylord. But I noticed that there were no radar returns at all over Lake Huron. All the storms were over the land. The over-water route would be a little out of my way, but satellite showed it to be scattered to clear, and because 76G was in the extreme eastern part of the Thumb, I could avoid hazardous weather completely as long as the storms didn't build any further east. My plan was to go high and pick my way among any buildups, knowing that there were clear skies and a way down just a few miles farther out over the water. If the convection pushed into the Thumb, I'd land at BAX or PHN.

I filed an IFR at VFR/075 for the return trip with a briefer from a phone at the GLR terminal, listing my route as GLR APN BAX 76G. This was before I was instrument rated. Ahead of me in line to use the phone was an instrument-rated pilot with 3 passengers, who was headed to OZW - Howell, MI. He spent at least 10 minutes agonizing over the decision of whether to file or go VFR.

In the end he elected to go VFR underneath where he could see the weather.

It was the right decision for him, assuming he went at all. The over water route would have been way out of his way, and he would still have had to pick his way around storms regardless, since Howell is much farther inland.

I never found out if he made it or was forced to divert and wait out the weather, but I thought about him as I flew south over the Lake, in perfectly calm air over a broken deck, then a scattered one, then clear skies, watching one of the most spectacular light shows I've ever seen in daylight only 40 miles or so off my right wing.

As always, the devil was in the details. Because of where I needed to go, I could go high with no risk of being trapped by weather, even VFR. Going to OZW was a whole different ball game with no easy way out, even with an IR.

Today, if I absolutely had to deal with storms, I'd go underneath rather than try to go above and go around the buildups, unless I knew for sure that I could top the deck. Even so, there's no way to be sure you won't get trapped in a maze of developing storms with no clear way around them. I think that if I was in the other pilot's position that day, even with an instrument rating, I would have just waited it out.
 
Some weather on the way home today.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_1201.JPG
    IMG_1201.JPG
    1.1 MB · Views: 49
  • IMG_1202.JPG
    IMG_1202.JPG
    1.1 MB · Views: 39
  • IMG_1203.JPG
    IMG_1203.JPG
    1.1 MB · Views: 35
  • IMG_1204.JPG
    IMG_1204.JPG
    1.1 MB · Views: 33
I flew into what I can only guess was a microburst a little while back over Colorado in a Debonair in IMC (70 plus miles east of the Rockies). At the time I was about 25 miles from any real nasty radar return and was in IMC in what was "green" on the NEXRAD.
If I'm interpreting that correctly that's what flying blind among embedded storms is; IMC in the green paint with scattered convective activity. Nexrad can bite in that circumstance.

The only way I'm willing deal with that in my plane at this time is to either get below the layer or preferably, above the layer and to stay in VMC.

Nexrad is incredibly effective despite the time lag if one stays visual and uses it to calibrate and extend the pilot's vision Seeing around corners is magical.

An IFR clearance relieves you of cloud clearance requirements and enables penetrations when prudent. Excess power for climb is real useful as well.

I've done just enough flying west of the Mississippi to know that what works for me east is just background for western storm systems. Most of my western experience is sans engine and it gave me nothing but respect for how much more energy is involved.
 
You guys crack me up ! "Go high ?" How high can you go ? I've been at 410 and it ain't high enough. A nice tool if you can afford it is Stormscope. It can see the early building phase of a storm before there's any precip yet.
 
You guys crack me up ! "Go high ?" How high can you go ? I've been at 410 and it ain't high enough. A nice tool if you can afford it is Stormscope. It can see the early building phase of a storm before there's any precip yet.

Nobody has said "go high over the CB."

What we have said is "go high over the layer if you can, then you can see the CBs and visually navigate around them.

A Stormscope is invaluable, I love mine. Much better than NEXRAD / ADS-B time-delayed weather, although it doesn't have the same range; it is, however, real time.
 
The Doppler radar folk can sometimes see it if the dry is colliding with moist as a shear and direction change, but I've never seen a way to see that mode of the radar full time.

I use this app (RadarScope), available on Apple or Android, and change the view to one of the Velocity Products, such as SuperRes Velocity, as shown here:

http://radarscope.tv/faqs/base-velocity/

One of the most valuable apps I've paid for, when the weather is hitting the fan. I can tell if the cell approaching the house has rotation in it or not!
 
It is rare that I have won that battle of 'going high, above the buildups or associated layer to see and avoid thunderstorms'.
Quite often, the buildups become too close together, and build so fast they are shooting through 20K that you cannot avoid them by going high. Now, if it is scattered, that's different. And I guess there are some places in the country where the CB/TS environment does not promote such rapid widespread vertical development, and that can work - but when there are large areas building in places where I usually fly, typically it's better to go below. Unless you can go above 30K, and drive around the tops!
 
Back
Top