Thunderstorms in S. Texas Sunday a.m.?

scottd

scottd

Pre-takeoff checklist
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scottd
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scottd said:
The Hyrdometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) is showing the potential (30 to 50 percent coverage) for showers and thunderstorms in southern Texas based on the forecast...

Who's right? What other products can you use to help figure this out? Will there be thunder in southern Texas tomorrow morning?
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It's a big area. Wouldn't surprise me if there were a few, but not widespread...

Ryan
 
Well, Scott, I am no weather expert (we rely upon you for that, and I need a lot more), but I am something like experienced in Texas weather, so here's my home-boy experience talking.

With a flow of moisture up from the gulf across Mexico, I always expect the morning clouds, and as the day heats up, the possibility of convective stuff. But, absent a frontal system, you'll always have someplace to go, and you'll be able to avoid convective weather using the mark II eyeball.

In any event, being now in south Texas (T82) and intending to fly home tomorrow, I sure hope it's OK!
 
Well, Scott, I am no weather expert (we rely upon you for that, and I need a lot more), but I am something like experienced in Texas weather, so here's my home-boy experience talking.

With a flow of moisture up from the gulf across Mexico, I always expect the morning clouds, and as the day heats up, the possibility of convective stuff. But, absent a frontal system, you'll always have someplace to go, and you'll be able to avoid convective weather using the mark II eyeball.

In any event, being now in south Texas (T82) and intending to fly home tomorrow, I sure hope it's OK!
 
scottd said:
Local experience does certainly help.



There will be an abundance of moisture with boundary layer winds from the south and southeast - this will no doubt keep some low level stratocumulus clouds around 1500 to 3000 feet AGL. And it might even be thick enough in some areas to produce some morning -DZ. But the question is, will there be thunderstorms in this region as indicated by the HPC forecast? My personal belief is that the HPC forecast is a bit off base with a forecast for showers and thunderstorms at 12Z Sunday.
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I'm also a local... not that old, but over 25 years of South Texas weather would make me skeptical of more than an isolated thunderstorm here or there. I'm not the best weather person - yet (I'm trying to get better), but that's my guess looking at it right now.

Ryan

P.S. Just looked at your website and signed up. Never heard of it before, but it looks like it's worth watching.
 
Spike's instrument rating shall come in handy!

I like these weather threads you start, Scott. Thank you. Can you tell us how you determined the atmosphere was capped?

P.S. driving home to Fort Worth from Kansas City today, late afternoon and evening, so I'm watching that mid-plains risk area.
 
TangoWhiskey said:
Spike's instrument rating shall come in handy!

I like these weather threads you start, Scott. Thank you. Can you tell us how you determined the atmosphere was capped?

P.S. driving home to Fort Worth from Kansas City today, late afternoon and evening, so I'm watching that mid-plains risk area.
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I'm wondering if he used a skew-log-T to determine capping...I'm sure he'll chime in with the real info...
 
It was VFR, something like 1,800 broken, 2,200 overcast when I left, tops at around 6,000. Smooth air and a good push (20+ knots).

Misty & rainy at sun-up, bright clouds on departure at noon-thirty.
 
Just FYI: We're sitting on Mustang Island, (Port Aransas, Texas) enjoying a cold lemonade.

There isn't a cloud in the sky -- although it started off overcast this morning...
 
Yeah, the weather screwed up my plan to fly to Austin this morning.
 
scottd said:
Bruce,

The sounding analysis you posted was for last night...
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Yes Scott, I know that, it was to match the time frame being discussed.... :) . SAT has historica data! We have a little advantage looking backwards....rather than 3 hours ahead.
this morning's cap was even greater and wasn't expect to erode significantly throughout the day as it often does in the later afternoon.
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We're currently under a tornado watch red box here in PIA...
 
Spike posted at 10PM last night......the point being, that particular SAT SkewT would have been available.
 
bbchien said:
Spike posted at 10PM last night......the point being, that particular SAT SkewT would have been available.
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I guess that the time has come for me to ... ummm ... learn this whole "Skew-T" thing.

Motion on the floor: "I nominate the Honorable Bruce Chien, MD to th epost of Lecturer Extraordinaire at the First Gaston's Skew-T Introductory Seminar!"

Do I hear a second?
 
What did occur was a fairly decent blanket of light rain all across the San Antonio area overnight. Everything was really nice, green, and fresh! VERY, VERY hazy this afternoon.

Ryan
 
bbchien said:
We really ought to invite Scott.....
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Bright, blinding light...

...common-sense idea.

You must be some kind of smart-guy, Doc...
 
Yeah, let Scott talk about advanced concepts of meteorology for about 30 minutes, then snap a picture of the deer-in-the-headlights look on Cutler's face. Or one of me sound asleep in my chair.

bbchien said:
We really ought to invite Scott.....
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wabower said:
Yeah, let Scott talk about advanced concepts of meteorology for about 30 minutes, then snap a picture of the deer-in-the-headlights look on Cutler's face. Or one of me sound asleep in my chair.
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You know me too well.

There is photographic proof that I can fall asleep on the flightline, too. I think Lance Flynn was also a victim of the snoozles.

Idea is, we schedule the weather stuff *before* the likkering-up has occurred.
 
SCCutler said:
Well, Scott, I am no weather expert (we rely upon you for that, and I need a lot more), but I am something like experienced in Texas weather, so here's my home-boy experience talking.

With a flow of moisture up from the gulf across Mexico, I always expect the morning clouds, and as the day heats up, the possibility of convective stuff. But, absent a frontal system, you'll always have someplace to go, and you'll be able to avoid convective weather using the mark II eyeball.

In any event, being now in south Texas (T82) and intending to fly home tomorrow, I sure hope it's OK!
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Concur.. moist onshore flow combined with ground heating and unstable air results in scattered CB's typically in the mid to later day.. but since its not frontal or squall line, you can usually dodge them without much trouble.
 
Scott,

At this point, what would you expect for Saturday early to mid-morning?

Ryan
 
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