The problem with general aviation

Jay Honeck said:
As always, it's a matter of degree. If you are one of the 60,000+ people who bought a freaking Escalade, you COULD have bought a great used aircraft like Atlas.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S3...
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Let's see, with "Atlas" you didn't have an airconditioner, no entertainment system, very little baggage room. You fly to an airport then have to futz around bumming a ride or renting a car to get to where you are really going. Your passengers get to "enjoy" turbulance and the unpredictability of weather ("Honey, what do you mean we can't go back home today?)

In the Escalade you ride in comfort, use less fuel, don't need any special training or recurrent training to drive it, if it's raining or snowing you can still drive, stop along the way and eat or find a rest room. And it gets you exactly where you left from to where you are going.

Private aviation is not for the masses and never will be. In today's society people are seeking instant gratification and are not willing to go through what is required to participate in GA.
 
bartmc said:
Purchase price is the cost of entry.
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Exactly this.

For the fixed and variable costs of owning (not including cost of purchase), you could get a brand new Jaguar convertible every two years.

Direct fixed and variable costs are ~$15k/yr. You can do a lot with $15k.
 
When did Cessna start selling 40 year-old marginally-equipped Pipers?

Jay Honeck said:
As always, it's a matter of degree. If you are one of the 60,000+ people who bought a freaking Escalade, you COULD have bought a great used aircraft like Atlas.

What would Cessna do with 61,000 orders?

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S3...
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bartmc said:
My plane is a $65,000 plane. On top of that, I fly 100-150 hrs per year. That's about $15,000 to $20,000/yr if nothing goes wrong., if I had a payment... add another $10,000 or so Purchase price is the cost of entry. I give up a-****ing-lot to fly.
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All of us do.

But don't forget, until 2010 I owned a 1/3rd share in an Ercoupe worth a whopping $18K. My TOTAL investment was $6000, and our per hour cost was $15.

About what I paid for my motorcycle.

It wasn't fast, and it wasn't comfortable, but man, it was FUN, and even my college student son could afford to fly it.
 
Speaking of which, your perfect storm of the 70's did not acknowledge the timing of the affluence of the thousands of military-trained pilots from the various wars and police actions 20-25 years earlier.

denverpilot said:
Jay Honeck said:
What would Cessna do with 61,000 orders?
/QUOTE]

Raise prices.

No, I'm not kidding. A Skylane would be $1M if demand were that high.

If they didn't, their investors would tear their heads off.
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Speaking of which, your perfect storm of the 70's did not acknowledge the timing of the affluence of the thousands of military-trained pilots from the various wars and police actions 20-25 years earlier.
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That's very true. In the '70s, the WWII guys were in their 50s, at their peak earning potential. It's been downhill for GA manufacturers ever since.

In a very real sense, the aircraft manufacturers who ramped up production after the war, thinking that all those pilots would buy airplanes, were 100% right. They were just 30 years early.
 
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The post-war choices of transportation-quality planes were very limited, as were the avionics and ground-based nav-aid systems.
Jay Honeck said:
wabower said:
Speaking of which, your perfect storm of the 70's did not acknowledge the timing of the affluence of the thousands of military-trained pilots from the various wars and police actions 20-25 years earlier.



That's very true. In the '70s, the WWII guys were in their 50s, at their peak earning potential. It's been downhill for GA manufacturers ever since.

In a very real sense, the aircraft manufacturers who ramped up production after the war, thinking that all those pilots would buy airplanes, were 100% right. They were just 30 years early.
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I think we can all agree that there has been significant improvements in electronics/navigation/instrumentation over the last 50 years. No one disputes that fact. The point remains, however, that the airframes have lagged far behind at least for the big GA OEMS Like Cessna and Piper. They certainly know how to make a fixed gear single perfectly suitable for training (and ownership) that can crack 140Kts on 160-180HP, so why haven't they? Well, certification costs is the general consensus which leads to lack of competition. There is still a large segment of the aging pilot population that will not consider an experimental aircraft and there aren't a lot of players in the certified Market. Cirrus came along and showed the old timers what modern aerodynamics can do and is certainly providing some needed competition but the price of admission remains high. Mooney is no longer building airplanes and new Bonanzas certainly perform, but out of reach for many of us. For the bulk of us looking for an affordable used certified aircraft there simply isn't a lot of high performing choices, and with Cessna and Piper still cranking out the same basic 50 year old airframe design there may not be any good choices for a while. I don't know what the next catalyst will be that changes GA but I hope it comes soon. Maybe changes in the certification process, maybe the potentially huge demand for GA aircraft in emerging markets will bring new players, or maybe the experimental market with its rapid innovation will eventually totally eclipse the certified market. Who knows.......Until then, I'll keep my old Mooney flying, start looking at experimentals, or hope my fortunes increase so I can afford a nice A36 :)
 
As long as demand is the word mentioned immediately after supply, some of it must exist in order to stimulate the market. Are you willing to spend multi-millions to design and certify anything new and exotic?
Perezhr said:
I think we can all agree that there has been significant improvements in electronics/navigation/instrumentation over the last 50 years. No one disputes that fact. The point remains, however, that the airframes have lagged far behind at least for the big GA OEMS Like Cessna and Piper. They certainly know how to make a fixed gear single perfectly suitable for training (and ownership) that can crack 140Kts on 160-180HP, so why haven't they? Well, certification costs is the general consensus which leads to lack of competition. There is still a large segment of the aging pilot population that will not consider an experimental aircraft and there aren't a lot of players in the certified Market. Cirrus came along and showed the old timers what modern aerodynamics can do and is certainly providing some needed competition but the price of admission remains high. Mooney is no longer building airplanes and new Bonanzas certainly perform, but out of reach for many of us. For the bulk of us looking for an affordable used certified aircraft there simply isn't a lot of high performing choices, and with Cessna and Piper still cranking out the same basic 50 year old airframe design there may not be any good choices for a while. I don't know what the next catalyst will be that changes GA but I hope it comes soon. Maybe changes in the certification process, maybe the potentially huge demand for GA aircraft in emerging markets will bring new players, or maybe the experimental market with its rapid innovation will eventually totally eclipse the certified market. Who knows.......Until then, I'll keep my old Mooney flying, start looking at experimentals, or hope my fortunes increase so I can afford a nice A36 :)
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denverpilot said:
Raise prices.

No, I'm not kidding. A Skylane would be $1M if demand were that high.

If they didn't, their investors would tear their heads off.
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Well then they wouldn't have that many orders.
 
RotorAndWing said:
Let's see, with "Atlas" you didn't have an airconditioner, no entertainment system, very little baggage room. You fly to an airport then have to futz around bumming a ride or renting a car to get to where you are really going. Your passengers get to "enjoy" turbulance and the unpredictability of weather ("Honey, what do you mean we can't go back home today?)

In the Escalade you ride in comfort, use less fuel, don't need any special training or recurrent training to drive it, if it's raining or snowing you can still drive, stop along the way and eat or find a rest room. And it gets you exactly where you left from to where you are going.

Private aviation is not for the masses and never will be. In today's society people are seeking instant gratification and are not willing to go through what is required to participate in GA.
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I was nodding my head in complete agreement with your post, until the last sentence. Today's society isn't really any different than yesterday's society except that today there are fewer middle class people that can afford to fly. I know people that are willing to participate, but there is no way they're going to be either able to pay, or willing to take the major financial sacrifice needed just to have fun buzzing around.

In addition, people with money are now much more informed and educated on the subject of the private plane. It's limitations and expenses are much better understood. Back in the '70s a good salesman combined with hyped up flight instructors could get people all excited about the dream of the personal airline. Today, consumers are more savvy and sales folks and instructors are a bit more realistic.

For example, a guy gets sick of driving his family on weekends and holidays and thinks wouldn't it be great to get there faster? In the '60s, or '70s he goes to a airplane dealer and tells the guy he wants to be able to fly his family around and the salesman says "Sure buddy, no problem. We can hook you up! We can get you into this one right over here and after some flight training you're good to go. I have an instructor right over here."

Today, the same guy comes into the dealership and is much more likely to get a realistic estimate as to the costs, time investment and limitations of the "personal airline" from both the salesperson and the flight instructor. The consumer weighs the facts, realizes it costs way more than he ever dreamed it would, sees there is no way to compete with the airlines and the dream is finished.

It now really boils down to just people that really like airplanes and desire to get in the air no matter what. There are no more, or no less of these people than in the past, there are just fewer of them with the money to be able to act on their dreams.
 
When and where did you start flying?
Dav8or said:
I was nodding my head in complete agreement with your post, until the last sentence. Today's society isn't really any different than yesterday's society except that today there are fewer middle class people that can afford to fly. I know people that are willing to participate, but there is no way they're going to be either able to pay, or willing to take the major financial sacrifice needed just to have fun buzzing around.

In addition, people with money are now much more informed and educated on the subject of the private plane. It's limitations and expenses are much better understood. Back in the '70s a good salesman combined with hyped up flight instructors could get people all excited about the dream of the personal airline. Today, consumers are more savvy and sales folks and instructors are a bit more realistic.

For example, a guy gets sick of driving his family on weekends and holidays and thinks wouldn't it be great to get there faster? In the '60s, or '70s he goes to a airplane dealer and tells the guy he wants to be able to fly his family around and the salesman says "Sure buddy, no problem. We can hook you up! We can get you into this one right over here and after some flight training you're good to go. I have an instructor right over here."

Today, the same guy comes into the dealership and is much more likely to get a realistic estimate as to the costs, time investment and limitations of the "personal airline" from both the salesperson and the flight instructor. The consumer weighs the facts, realizes it costs way more than he ever dreamed it would, sees there is no way to compete with the airlines and the dream is finished.

It now really boils down to just people that really like airplanes and desire to get in the air no matter what. There are no more, or no less of these people than in the past, there are just fewer of them with the money to be able to act on their dreams.
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You guys all make some excellent observations about the issue facing general aviation. As a guy who is not a pilot, does not own a plane, but does indeed have a deep interest in general aviation let me say this. After training the only way I'll be able to afford a plane is if I go into a shared ownership with a friend with whom also obviously shares my same interests. In my opinion, which keep in mind is coming from an outsider in GA, is that general aviation will die eventually unless single ownership is much more feasible. Right now the cost of gas, storage, repairs, and training is just not reasonable at this time. As I stated in another thread, there is no reason a brand new capable aircraft is priced in the hundreds of thousands of dollar range with companies still crying about lack of purchases. Lower the prices, make a decent product that is safe and more in tune with what people want NOW and not thirty or forty years ago and general aviation might see a revival. Until then guys like myself and my friend have decided that once things in our own lives improve and we make it through training an old C-172 is all we'll be able to afford.
 
I think you might find the historic production-by-year numbers for GA airplanes to be interesting. Prices don't decrease when demand drops, the builders simply produce fewer units. If they can't sell them at a profit, they don't build them. Plants are closed, workers are sent home, and they wait until things get better to resume production. If things don't get better (and after ~six bankruptcies and reorgs) companies like Mooney just throw in the towel. Another GA manufacturer produced and delivered 101 planes in 1981 compared with 26 a year later. If you're waiting for lower prices on new planes to make your move, a different strategy might prove to be more rewarding.

LJS1993 said:
You guys all make some excellent observations about the issue facing general aviation. As a guy who is not a pilot, does not own a plane, but does indeed have a deep interest in general aviation let me say this. After training the only way I'll be able to afford a plane is if I go into a shared ownership with a friend with whom also obviously shares my same interests. In my opinion, which keep in mind is coming from an outsider in GA, is that general aviation will die eventually unless single ownership is much more feasible. Right now the cost of gas, storage, repairs, and training is just not reasonable at this time. As I stated in another thread, there is no reason a brand new capable aircraft is priced in the hundreds of thousands of dollar range with companies still crying about lack of purchases. Lower the prices, make a decent product that is safe and more in tune with what people want NOW and not thirty or forty years ago and general aviation might see a revival. Until then guys like myself and my friend have decided that once things in our own lives improve and we make it through training an old C-172 is all we'll be able to afford.
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$7,000 brand new. Yeah I know it isn't a Bonacirrus with TVs and stuff. Funny thing is it would probably meet most pilots(real not imagined) missions. Oh I know there is one guy in the sunny South that uses his GA plane for real travel. Maybe two. Let old school GA and all of its bloated infrastructure die, then there will be a market for someone to finally build George Jetson's ride.
 
LJS1993 said:
You guys all make some excellent observations about the issue facing general aviation. As a guy who is not a pilot, does not own a plane, but does indeed have a deep interest in general aviation let me say this. After training the only way I'll be able to afford a plane is if I go into a shared ownership with a friend with whom also obviously shares my same interests. In my opinion, which keep in mind is coming from an outsider in GA, is that general aviation will die eventually unless single ownership is much more feasible. Right now the cost of gas, storage, repairs, and training is just not reasonable at this time. As I stated in another thread, there is no reason a brand new capable aircraft is priced in the hundreds of thousands of dollar range with companies still crying about lack of purchases. Lower the prices, make a decent product that is safe and more in tune with what people want NOW and not thirty or forty years ago and general aviation might see a revival. Until then guys like myself and my friend have decided that once things in our own lives improve and we make it through training an old C-172 is all we'll be able to afford.
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And there is nothing wrong with a partnership in an old 172. After all, it is EXACTLY the same as the new ones they're building today.

If all you want to do is fly, I contend that it's still affordable. Go buy yourself an Ercoupe or C-150 for $17K, tie it on the ramp, and go fly the pants off of it. Get a partner, and your monthly cost is peanuts, on a par with boating.

If you want to actually go somewhere reliably, however, now you're talking bigger bucks. Even a 182 or my old Pathfinder isn't worth a darn in bad weather. You need to jump up to turbine power in order to get near all-weather capability, and that's still beyond all but the richest people.

So, most of us exist somewhere in between. My RV cruises at 160+ knots, as high as my oxygen system can take me. It's not worth a dang in thunderstorms or icing, so we avoid bad weather. This approach works 90% of the time, which is good enough for us. YMMV.
 
I am a low time pilot, I finished my ticket in 2006 and have not flown since...I simply could not afford it at the time and tried to "forget" my dream... but now I am considering it again, thinking about getting back in. I am thinking about purchasing a 60's era plane, fixed pitch, fixed gear, but even this will probably run about $15000 a year. I am also worried about buying a plane and watching GA die around me ( maybe too dramatic a statement ) but at least having no one left to sell a plane to when I feel ready to move up.
 
mnewb1 said:
I am a low time pilot, I finished my ticket in 2006 and have not flown since...I simply could not afford it at the time and tried to "forget" my dream... but now I am considering it again, thinking about getting back in. I am thinking about purchasing a 60's era plane, fixed pitch, fixed gear, but even this will probably run about $15000 a year. I am also worried about buying a plane and watching GA die around me ( maybe too dramatic a statement ) but at least having no one left to sell a plane to when I feel ready to move up.
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Do you have a mission in mind?
 
ClimbnSink said:
$7,000 brand new. Yeah I know it isn't a Bonacirrus with TVs and stuff. Funny thing is it would probably meet most pilots(real not imagined) missions. Oh I know there is one guy in the sunny South that uses his GA plane for real travel. Maybe two. Let old school GA and all of its bloated infrastructure die, then there will be a market for someone to finally build George Jetson's ride.
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What are those things like to fly?
 
e.pie said:
What are those things like to fly?
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Para/chutes/gliders are among the most fun of all flying machines. Never flown with a ppg motor, have several friends who fly them. Obviously you ain't flying to Grandmas. This guy is an airline pilot, owns a Bo and a helicopter and prefers flying powered parachutes. Biggest downside is you won't get any mutual appreciation from the FBO couch warming crowd.
 
ClimbnSink said:
Para/chutes/gliders are among the most fun of all flying machines. Never flown with a ppg motor, have several friends who fly them. Obviously you ain't flying to Grandmas. This guy is an airline pilot, owns a Bo and a helicopter and prefers flying powered parachutes. Biggest downside is you won't get any mutual appreciation from the FBO couch warming crowd.
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So if I want to do some sight seeing along the coast of SoCal one of those things will do the job? What if I want to take my wife?
 
LJS1993 said:
So if I want to do some sight seeing along the coast of SoCal one of those things will do the job? What if I want to take my wife?
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Then you need the ultralight tandem exemption, which is handled by one of the ultralight orgs. Everything is possible. But gosh darn it we don't want previously unknown to us possibilities we want what we saw the slave in line before us get.
 
Alexb2000 said:
Do you have a mission in mind?
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Flying here in Michigan...I certainly don't plan on any long cross country travel...weekend fly-ins, maybe a Mackinac Island, UP trips...no good concrete plan.
 
mnewb1 said:
Flying here in Michigan...I certainly don't plan on any long cross country travel...weekend fly-ins, maybe a Mackinac Island, UP trips...no good concrete plan.
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I know of a really nice older 172E that has a constant speed prop. conversion, tip tanks, recent top, and some other goodies. It isn't on the market yet and it could be bought very reasonably. If you are worried about resale and a GA decline, a well maintained 172 can always be sold quickly and offers good resistance to market down turns; because someone could buy a plane like the above and do their training in it, sell it, and be way ahead of $150 HR rentals. Therefore the market is always good on something like the above.
 
I am thinking about purchasing a 60's era plane, fixed pitch, fixed gear, but even this will probably run about $15000 a year.
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Hi M Newberry. A 60's era airplane will do what you want. The yearly cost probably won't be $15,000. Our fixed cost, including hangar, runs about $5,000. I don't put away an engine reserve, so if you add that, your cost would be a little higher. We have a simple, single engine kind of like you described. A C-172 or Piper Cherokee would be a good choice.
 
somorris said:
Hi M Newberry. A 60's era airplane will do what you want. The yearly cost probably won't be $15,000. Our fixed cost, including hangar, runs about $5,000. I don't put away an engine reserve, so if you add that, your cost would be a little higher. We have a simple, single engine kind of like you described. A C-172 or Piper Cherokee would be a good choice.
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$6/galx10GPHx100hours = $6,000 in fuel.
Insurance, add another $1,000
Annual, add another $1000
Hangar? add another $3,000.

you won't fly a 4 banger 4 seater spam can any amount of time most anywhere in the US for $5,000/year all in.
 
wabower said:
As long as demand is the word mentioned immediately after supply, some of it must exist in order to stimulate the market. Are you willing to spend multi-millions to design and certify anything new and exotic?
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I have to agree here. It's not that manufacturers can't build a new whiz-bang airplane, it's that they have no one to sell them to.

Take Jay's Ercoupe and go back to my description of Joe Blow with a quarter million dollars of mortgage debt, two to four offspring to feed, and two adults not able or unwilling to sacrifice the "let's go to the mall again this weekend because shopping is entertainment" mentality with an average of over $20K in credit card debt, not to mention the cars...

... and tell me where that guy or gal is going to pull $18K from to buy an Ercoupe.

It's ALL about the money and the inability to budget, let alone forego a lifestyle. Even the frugal folk are hurting if they're making a median salary minus the 50% in ALL taxes that come either out of their paycheck directly before they even notice it, or as an add on to the purchase price of every consumer good they purchase.

Take a simple one: how about we put the actual price of gasoline on the pump and right next to it, the current taxation price and then the total price? Think people might pay more attention to where their money is going? Or be less interested in alternative fuels once they see the actual breakdown of how cheap petrochemical fuel really is? Just one example.

I doubt it would matter. Most folks don't look at even the sales tax rate on big ticket items and drive a few extra miles to buy it elsewhere outside the city tax area. Some do.

They usually have their financial ducks in order in every other area of their life too, so it's no surprise to them. They might even save up enough in ten years to buy that Ercoupe. ;)
 
Let's say they figure out how to buy the Ercoupe. What's the payoff? Why would anybody with a lick of sense walk an extra 10 feet to buy a two-seat airplane?

denverpilot said:
I have to agree here. It's not that manufacturers can't build a new whiz-bang airplane, it's that they have no one to sell them to.

Take Jay's Ercoupe and go back to my description of Joe Blow with a quarter million dollars of mortgage debt, two to four offspring to feed, and two adults not able or unwilling to sacrifice the "let's go to the mall again this weekend because shopping is entertainment" mentality with an average of over $20K in credit card debt, not to mention the cars...

... and tell me where that guy or gal is going to pull $18K from to buy an Ercoupe.

It's ALL about the money and the inability to budget, let alone forego a lifestyle. Even the frugal folk are hurting if they're making a median salary minus the 50% in ALL taxes that come either out of their paycheck directly before they even notice it, or as an add on to the purchase price of every consumer good they purchase.

Take a simple one: how about we put the actual price of gasoline on the pump and right next to it, the current taxation price and then the total price? Think people might pay more attention to where their money is going? Or be less interested in alternative fuels once they see the actual breakdown of how cheap petrochemical fuel really is? Just one example.

I doubt it would matter. Most folks don't look at even the sales tax rate on big ticket items and drive a few extra miles to buy it elsewhere outside the city tax area. Some do.

They usually have their financial ducks in order in every other area of their life too, so it's no surprise to them. They might even save up enough in ten years to buy that Ercoupe. ;)
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wabower said:
I think you might find the historic production-by-year numbers for GA airplanes to be interesting. Prices don't decrease when demand drops, the builders simply produce fewer units. If they can't sell them at a profit, they don't build them. Plants are closed, workers are sent home, and they wait until things get better to resume production. If things don't get better (and after ~six bankruptcies and reorgs) companies like Mooney just throw in the towel. Another GA manufacturer produced and delivered 101 planes in 1981 compared with 26 a year later. If you're waiting for lower prices on new planes to make your move, a different strategy might prove to be more rewarding.
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Well Wayne with all I said if life goes "right" and this friend and I still have the desire to get the training I bet we'll make it happen. But there are a lot of variables involved as neither of us are young pups.
 
Hope it happens. Better to do it whenever you can than trying to save it for the prom.

LJS1993 said:
Well Wayne with all I said if life goes "right" and this friend and I still have the desire to get the training I bet we'll make it happen. But there are a lot of variables involved as neither of us are young pups.
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bartmc said:
$6/galx10GPHx100hours = $6,000 in fuel.
Insurance, add another $1,000
Annual, add another $1000
Hangar? add another $3,000.

you won't fly a 4 banger 4 seater spam can any amount of time most anywhere in the US for $5,000/year all in.
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Another good reason to fly a 2-seater:

Cessna 150:
$3.84/gal x 5 GPH x 100 hours = $1,900 in fuel (Autogas STC)
Insurance (if you get it, we're talking about a 150!): $750
Annual: $500
Tiedown: $650
--------------------
$3,820
 
Which grand-kid do I leave behind?

SoloEqs said:
Another good reason to fly a 2-seater:

Cessna 150:
$3.84/gal x 5 GPH x 100 hours = $1,900 in fuel (Autogas STC)
Insurance (if you get it, we're talking about a 150!): $750
Annual: $500
Tiedown: $650
--------------------
$3,820
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No.

The problem is that in 1956, you could probably buy that 172 for a little over a grand or two, brand new. Now, that same plane, brand new, costs almost if not more than $200,000.

Why? Because we allow it and because we litigate so much.
 
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