The other shoe drops...Grounded.

Composite longevity is quite good. Just look at the sailplane end of the spectrum. The very first GRP sailplane the FS.24 Phoenix first flew in 1957. IIRC there are still a few flying to this day. Plastic sailplanes have been relatively common starting in the mid 60's giving us airplanes that have 40+ years of use. Granted Sailplanes don't have vibration issues, and most don't see the flight time that power planes have, but I would say that "plastic" planes are a relatively proven 50+ year old technology.
I haven't the engineering background to comment but my uneducated guess is that extrapolating from sailplanes to powered aircraft is chippy. :smile:

The relative experience of the manufacturer plays in, take the ICON A5 which is (someday?) to be produced by a company with experience in composite boats. Is this would be a closer extrapolation to make re: airframe safety in its intended use.

I'm not anti-composite but several promises never came true, they aren't much if any cheaper for instance. Slicker looking and better in turbulence, certainly.
 
Personally, I prefer the version where Jay goes broke because he bought a dangerous airplane to the version where he dies because the wings fell off his dangerous airplane. Broke beats dead in my book.
Somehow, this post was tragically comedic. :)
 
I wonder what the LSA shakeout is, or ultimately will be. I ask only about planes that have severe design defects that will kill the marque (as I believe will be the case of the Zodiac XL).

We had a Remos crash (pilot error?), the Cessna Sky entry with troubles...what is the longevity of composite designed fuselages?

I don't think your going to see nearly as many S-LSA manufactures go away as many think is going to happen. With much lower certification costs on the S-LSA, and the ability to use many off the shelf parts, you could probably run a manufacturing plant with 3-4 people. Build 6 airplanes a year, at the right price point, and you probably could make it work.
 
I don't think your going to see nearly as many S-LSA manufactures go away as many think is going to happen. With much lower certification costs on the S-LSA, and the ability to use many off the shelf parts, you could probably run a manufacturing plant with 3-4 people. Build 6 airplanes a year, at the right price point, and you probably could make it work.
Here is an article that supports LSA safety.

http://www.flyingmag.com/piloting/1691/lsa-safety-picture-emerging.html

As to washout rates, I don't know what would be considered "a lot", "a few". I don't know how many LSA mfgs/planes are out there and to what statistics do you hold their washout rates to?
 
I don't think your going to see nearly as many S-LSA manufactures go away as many think is going to happen. With much lower certification costs on the S-LSA, and the ability to use many off the shelf parts, you could probably run a manufacturing plant with 3-4 people. Build 6 airplanes a year, at the right price point, and you probably could make it work.

Supporting this view is:

"In terms of sales, the segment is a success. According to a presentation given by the FAA at the Friedrichshafen (Germany) airshow, the total LSA fleet size is now nearing 10,000 airplanes. Of those, around 6,700 are experimental-LSAs and around 1,300 are special-LSAs. There are more than 100 approved LSA designs, a number that might not decrease over time, since the cost of admission to the industry is very low. And there seems to be an enthusiastic market for LSAs, much more so than many observers predicted." from the link above.
 


In all, the LSA fatal accident picture doesn't sound good. As of late spring, there had been 39 fatal LSA accidents (with 49 total fatalities). Of those fatals, 12 were in S-LSAs, meaning that nearly one out of every 100 S-LSAs has been involved in a fatal accident. Of those 39 total fatal wrecks (E-LSA and S-LSA combined), 54 percent were due to loss of control. Ten percent were due to structural failure. The numbers do suggest that the factory-built LSAs are faring much better than their kit-built counterparts.

In terms of the conventional safety matrix, LSAs are stacking up to be more than twice as risky (in terms of fatal accidents) as personal Part 23 airplanes (with professionally flown airplanes being twice as safe as that). The fatal rate per 100,000 hours flown for LSAs is, according to the FAA, just over five per 100,000 hours. The personally flown rate is just over two fatals per 100,000 flight hours.

Doesn't sound very good to me.


Trapper John
 
Here is an article that supports LSA safety.

http://www.flyingmag.com/piloting/1691/lsa-safety-picture-emerging.html

As to washout rates, I don't know what would be considered "a lot", "a few". I don't know how many LSA mfgs/planes are out there and to what statistics do you hold their washout rates to?

Right now, there are 104 S-LSA's that have been certified. Best list of them that I can find is found at the following link. I think that probably half of them will never sell more than a handful. The remainder may survive, but who knows. Lots of them, while S-LSA's, probably aren't really designed for the American market, and thus as such, will rarely be seen over here.


http://www.bydanjohnson.com/index.cfm?b=6&m=2
 
If Cessna has the same problem with the 162 that Zenith has encountered with their fleet, will the outcome for the owners be the same?
IIRC, Cessna ran a very comprehensive stall and spin series that went significantly beyond what was required, and as a result, they found a few things to tweak. Personally, I think it speaks well for Cessna, and I wouldn't worry about having to play test pilot in a 162.


Trapper John
 
If Cessna has the same problem with the 162 that Zenith has encountered with their fleet, will the outcome for the owners be the same?

Yes. And a big thank you to New Mexico and the awesome families here that sued and put Piper out of business.
 
If Cessna has the same problem with the 162 that Zenith has encountered with their fleet, will the outcome for the owners be the same?

Keyword is if. Yeah, Cessna doesn't pay for ADs, mandatory service bulletins, etc. that I know of, but I can't really think of any Cessnas that have had problems with the wings folding up, either.


Trapper John
 
If Cessna has the same problem with the 162 that Zenith has encountered with their fleet, will the outcome for the owners be the same?
Interesting question, how insulated is Cessna from product liabilities? How well are they insured? Could they yank production on the 162 and survive?

Are there only minor design issues left in the 162 or is there a hidden plane-killer as in the Zodiac XL?
 
Yes. And a big thank you to New Mexico and the awesome families here that sued and put Piper out of business.

How does whatever that means correlate with the fact that within the past 12 months Cessna has paid the parts and labor cost to install supplemental seat restraints in the entire 180 fleet (including my 1960 model and the 1954 model I recently sold to a friend) and none of which were manufactured after 1981?
 
Composite longevity is quite good. Just look at the sailplane end of the spectrum. The very first GRP sailplane the FS.24 Phoenix first flew in 1957. IIRC there are still a few flying to this day. Plastic sailplanes have been relatively common starting in the mid 60's giving us airplanes that have 40+ years of use. Granted Sailplanes don't have vibration issues, and most don't see the flight time that power planes have, but I would say that "plastic" planes are a relatively proven 50+ year old technology.

Some things to consider, not all plastic planes are alike. There are three basic resins, Polyester, Vinylester and Epoxy, and three basic reinforcement fibers, Glass, Aramid and Carbon. These come in various mats, weaves and rovings. Then there is the issue of curing, whether room temp catalytic or done in an autoclave, and if the material was a prepreg or wetted on sight. There is also the issue of sizing on the cloth and whether it is sized for ester or epoxy resin. Use the wrong one with the wrong resin and you'll have delamination problems. The strength and durability are highly dependent not only on the choices between the above and the schedules of the layup, but also the skill and care of the person doing the layup. What method of wetting and rolling, did they align the fibers correctly, did they use a vacuum bag method?

A whole lot of variables involved in plastic planes, and most od them are variable you can't check on non destructively.
 
I'm not anti-composite but several promises never came true, they aren't much if any cheaper for instance. Slicker looking and better in turbulence, certainly.

On what grounds do you consider a composite plane better in turbulence? BTW, a fabric, wood and steel plane is also a composite plane....
 
you'd think that, in turbulence, you'd want a material with a practically infinite fatigue life. like...wood.
 
On what grounds do you consider a composite plane better in turbulence? BTW, a fabric, wood and steel plane is also a composite plane....
Personal experience with Cirrus or Cessna 400 v.s. the P210 and the Velocity line of pushers where the wings absorb a great deal of vibration.
 
Right now, there are 104 S-LSA's that have been certified. Best list of them that I can find is found at the following link. I think that probably half of them will never sell more than a handful. The remainder may survive, but who knows. Lots of them, while S-LSA's, probably aren't really designed for the American market, and thus as such, will rarely be seen over here.


http://www.bydanjohnson.com/index.cfm?b=6&m=2

Nineteen (19) have over 80% of the market the least having sold only 15 planes or so. That would suggest a washout rate that is very high especially considering the 162 hasn't hit the tarmac yet.
 

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Right now, there are 104 S-LSA's that have been certified. Best list of them that I can find is found at the following link. I think that probably half of them will never sell more than a handful. The remainder may survive, but who knows. Lots of them, while S-LSA's, probably aren't really designed for the American market, and thus as such, will rarely be seen over here.


http://www.bydanjohnson.com/index.cfm?b=6&m=2

Nineteen (19) have over 80% of the market the least having sold only 15 planes or so. That would suggest a washout rate that is very high especially considering the 162 hasn't hit the tarmac yet.

Let's see... 19 of the 104 manufacturers have 80% of the market.

Wow.. Is there a better real-world example of the 80/20 rule!?
 
Personal experience with Cirrus or Cessna 400 v.s. the P210 and the Velocity line of pushers where the wings absorb a great deal of vibration.

That's an issue of wing loading, not material. If you get in an F-104, you'll find it better in turbulence than any of the above.
 
Originally Posted by thepetrostate
Personal experience with Cirrus or Cessna 400 v.s. the P210 and the Velocity line of pushers where the wings absorb a great deal of vibration.


That's an issue of wing loading, not material. If you get in an F-104, you'll find it better in turbulence than any of the above.

For the Velocity but not the more nearly comparable Cessna 400 and P210. I wasn't aware that there was disagreement with smoother riding in composite airplanes v.s. metal airframes; for instance if you were to skin two fuselages one with a slick composite and one with metal airframe in identical aircraft.
 
Nineteen (19) have over 80% of the market the least having sold only 15 planes or so. That would suggest a washout rate that is very high especially considering the 162 hasn't hit the tarmac yet.

Just because those 80% have only sold very few planes, doesn't mean they are going to close up shop. Again, the S-LSA's have a very low cost of certification, and then they can be build by a few guys, and not a whole heck of a lot of room. They can keep the "line" open forever, and when they get a order, build it.
 
How does whatever that means correlate with the fact that within the past 12 months Cessna has paid the parts and labor cost to install supplemental seat restraints in the entire 180 fleet (including my 1960 model and the 1954 model I recently sold to a friend) and none of which were manufactured after 1981?

Cessna paid for the latest seat mod on our 1971 182 as well. Including labor. :yes:

(Is yours the same "ghetto-ass" mod we have with the intertia reel under the seat and the belt bolted to the floor? Sheesh, wasn't the lawyer lock enough?)
 
If Cessna has the same problem with the 162 that Zenith has encountered with their fleet, will the outcome for the owners be the same?
I'm voting no because Cessna has lot more to lose, particularly their reputation. They also have deep enough pockets to make $5,000 repairs to airplanes.
 
Just because those 80% have only sold very few planes, doesn't mean they are going to close up shop. Again, the S-LSA's have a very low cost of certification, and then they can be build by a few guys, and not a whole heck of a lot of room. They can keep the "line" open forever, and when they get a order, build it.
You read my post wrong, The 80% have sold a significant number of planes, it is the remaining 20% that have not. See attachment.

Business is not just about making a few sales to keep the doors open, it's about ROI, working capital, investors who have control and want to cash out and a myriad of other reasons.
 

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You read my post wrong, The 80% have sold a significant number of planes, it is the remaining 20 that have not. See attachment.

Business is not just about making a few sales to keep the doors open, it's about ROI, working capital, investors who have control and want to cash out and a myriad of other reasons.

Sorry about that. I understand how business works. I'm just saying, that given the option between selling low numbers of S-LSA's versus low numbers of a Part 23 certificated airplane, it would be much easier to make money selling the S-LSA's.
 
In all, the LSA fatal accident picture doesn't sound good. As of late spring, there had been 39 fatal LSA accidents (with 49 total fatalities). Of those fatals, 12 were in S-LSAs, meaning that nearly one out of every 100 S-LSAs has been involved in a fatal accident.

...

Doesn't sound very good to me.


Looking at the Cirrus pistons (SR-V, SR-20, SR-22), there have been 4,286 shipped by the end of 2008, with 55 of them being involved in fatal accidents listed on the NTSB site. That's one in every 78. Doesn't seem to be hurting their sales too much... :no:

What I can't stand is how the established aviation industry just doesn't "get" LSA's. Here are airplanes that are cheap to buy, cheap to fly, and could stand to bring MANY more new pilots to the fold - Even private pilots, nothing says you HAVE to get a sport pilot certificate if you fly an LSA - But most flight schools don't want anything to do with them, despite the fact that they would allow people with reasonable medical "deficiencies", or who don't need more than a light two-seater, or who can't afford to rent a new 172 for $160/hr, or whoever, to fly when otherwise they wouldn't be able to. I just want to run around shouting "will you people WAKE UP!?!??" LSA's are a GOOD thing.

I'm glad Cessna got into the game, and I hope Cirrus comes back to it. I hope the bigger LSA-only brands all stick around (Remos, Flight Design, Evektor, etc). I hope Icon makes it big, too. This stuff is good for aviation as a whole. :yes:

I must admit, however, that there are some planes in the category that I wish would go away. The Allegro 2000, for example. It takes every misconception most people have about LSA's in general and makes it come true. It's also probably the only plane whose safety I question so much that I would not fly one, even for free. Ugh. :(
 
Pete, you should have mentioned the Marvel. It had a 250hp turboprop.

"The airplane was fabricated using fiberglass, making the MARVEL the world's first all-composite aircraft,"...

Raspet originally developed the MARVEL under a contract with the U.S. Army Aviation Materiel Laboratories in the late 1950s.

http://www.msstate.edu/web/media/detail.php?id=2584

http://books.google.com/books?id=-Y...v=onepage&q=Marvel composite aircraft&f=false


Composite longevity is quite good. Just look at the sailplane end of the spectrum. The very first GRP sailplane the FS.24 Phoenix first flew in 1957. IIRC there are still a few flying to this day. Plastic sailplanes have been relatively common starting in the mid 60's giving us airplanes that have 40+ years of use. Granted Sailplanes don't have vibration issues, and most don't see the flight time that power planes have, but I would say that "plastic" planes are a relatively proven 50+ year old technology.
 
Neat info Steve, but Raspet was a glider guy at heart, so he probably wouldn't mind :)
 
Looking at the Cirrus pistons (SR-V, SR-20, SR-22), there have been 4,286 shipped by the end of 2008, with 55 of them being involved in fatal accidents listed on the NTSB site. That's one in every 78. Doesn't seem to be hurting their sales too much... :no:

What I can't stand is how the established aviation industry just doesn't "get" LSA's. Here are airplanes that are cheap to buy, cheap to fly, and could stand to bring MANY more new pilots to the fold - Even private pilots, nothing says you HAVE to get a sport pilot certificate if you fly an LSA - But most flight schools don't want anything to do with them, despite the fact that they would allow people with reasonable medical "deficiencies", or who don't need more than a light two-seater, or who can't afford to rent a new 172 for $160/hr, or whoever, to fly when otherwise they wouldn't be able to. I just want to run around shouting "will you people WAKE UP!?!??" LSA's are a GOOD thing.

I'm glad Cessna got into the game, and I hope Cirrus comes back to it. I hope the bigger LSA-only brands all stick around (Remos, Flight Design, Evektor, etc). I hope Icon makes it big, too. This stuff is good for aviation as a whole. :yes:
+100 :yesnod:
 
I must admit, however, that there are some planes in the category that I wish would go away. The Allegro 2000, for example. It takes every misconception most people have about LSA's in general and makes it come true. It's also probably the only plane whose safety I question so much that I would not fly one, even for free. Ugh. :(

I've never flown an Allegro, but I have sat in one. I didn't seem to mind it. I'd rather see more of the Allegro type S-LSA's, around the 65-70K price point, rather than the 125+K Flight Designs, Tecnams, Remos and others. They make the "cheaper" flight argument of LSA's an even bigger point.
 
I've never flown an Allegro, but I have sat in one. I didn't seem to mind it. I'd rather see more of the Allegro type S-LSA's, around the 65-70K price point, rather than the 125+K Flight Designs, Tecnams, Remos and others. They make the "cheaper" flight argument of LSA's an even bigger point.

Cheaper is great, but not at the cost of safety, nor at the cost of the good reputation LSA's should get.

Here's some of my major issues with the Allegro:

1) The fuel tank is... The pilot's seat. Hello?!?!? What were the designers smoking when they thought that one up?

2) Abundance of Shimano bicycle shifters in the cockpit. IIRC, one was for pitch trim, one was for mixture, and there was a third one. While I appreciate the sentiment (the Wright Brothers went from bikes to planes, ya know), I think we left behind the bike-plane thing 100 years ago. I'm sure Shimano makes good stuff, but they make it for bikes, not airplanes.

3) Exposed and poorly routed control rods. The control rods are exposed and visible from the sticks, back between the seats, up to the top of the cabin behind the seats in the baggage area, then into the wings. They're painted bright red, with signs posted saying "DO NOT TOUCH THE RED RODS." Unfortunately, my bags can't read. Again... You have GOT to be friggin' kidding me.

4) General flimsiness. In particular, the wingtips can be easily bent significantly inwards with thumb and a single finger, and the prop is plastic. Not composite, just plastic. Again, a thumb and a finger and you can bend the tips 3-4 inches fore and aft. Other parts were similarly flimsy, enough so that I seriously questioned their ability to stay attached to the aircraft in normal flight.

If the plane scares me, as a pilot, what is it going to do to potential passengers except scare them away? That is BAD for aviation. I'm sorry to say it, but I hope Fantasy Air bites the dust.

OBTW - I was originally one of the established-aviation LSA naysayers, mainly due to the Allegro. When I finally got the opportunity to fly some better-designed LSA's, I was very impressed.
 
Looking at the Cirrus pistons (SR-V, SR-20, SR-22), there have been 4,286 shipped by the end of 2008, with 55 of them being involved in fatal accidents listed on the NTSB site. That's one in every 78. Doesn't seem to be hurting their sales too much... :no:

I don't think that comparing a day VFR fleet to the Cirri is that useful. How does the LSA fleet stack up to the C150/C152/C172?

What I can't stand is how the established aviation industry just doesn't "get" LSA's. Here are airplanes that are cheap to buy, cheap to fly, and could stand to bring MANY more new pilots to the fold - Even private pilots, nothing says you HAVE to get a sport pilot certificate if you fly an LSA - But most flight schools don't want anything to do with them, despite the fact that they would allow people with reasonable medical "deficiencies", or who don't need more than a light two-seater, or who can't afford to rent a new 172 for $160/hr, or whoever, to fly when otherwise they wouldn't be able to. I just want to run around shouting "will you people WAKE UP!?!??" LSA's are a GOOD thing.
I guess "cheap" is a relative term, but to me, $100,000 to $120,000 for an LSA is a lot of money for what you get. I'd like to see what the C162 will rent for, if someone around here gets one, though. I'd like to be optimistic, but a lot of the rental fleet around here is old planes with a hull value much much less than a new LSA, so I'm not holding my breath for a spectacularly low rental rate.


Trapper John
 
I don't think that comparing a day VFR fleet to the Cirri is that useful. How does the LSA fleet stack up to the C150/C152/C172?

I guess "cheap" is a relative term, but to me, $100,000 to $120,000 for an LSA is a lot of money for what you get. I'd like to see what the C162 will rent for, if someone around here gets one, though. I'd like to be optimistic, but a lot of the rental fleet around here is old planes with a hull value much much less than a new LSA, so I'm not holding my breath for a spectacularly low rental rate.


Trapper John

I have a hard time arguing with that. I haven't seen an LSA yet that I'd value higher than $60K and most of them I'd value closer to $30K.
 
2) Abundance of Shimano bicycle shifters in the cockpit. IIRC, one was for pitch trim, one was for mixture, and there was a third one. While I appreciate the sentiment (the Wright Brothers went from bikes to planes, ya know), I think we left behind the bike-plane thing 100 years ago. I'm sure Shimano makes good stuff, but they make it for bikes, not airplanes.


4) General flimsiness. In particular, the wingtips can be easily bent significantly inwards with thumb and a single finger, and the prop is plastic. Not composite, just plastic. Again, a thumb and a finger and you can bend the tips 3-4 inches fore and aft. Other parts were similarly flimsy, enough so that I seriously questioned their ability to stay attached to the aircraft in normal flight.

Well, that's always the question with an lsa, where do you save the weight?
 
I suspect that the LSA standards were penned with something that looks more like an fat ultralight than a Normal or Utility category airplane in mind. I think they envisioned something that looks more like the Quicksilver GT-500 (which actually is certificated in the Primary category), for example, than something that looks like a C-152. After all, adding another couple hundred pounds to the MTOW would have allowed all those existing (and proven) C-140s, C-150s and C-152s to be flown under the SP rule. But the 1320 pound limit prevailed in the end.

Most new LSA airplanes sre designed to look and feel as much like conventional, Normal category airplanes as possible, however, which I think is both good and bad.

On the "good" side, it's obvious that the LSA standards have stimulated the birth and growth of an entire new segment of the industry. I also think the LSA standards allow for the development of a great deal of innovative technology in both airframe and powerplant design that would have been difficult to accomplish under the stricter Part 23 standards, but which will eventually benefit all of GA once these technologies and techniques prove themselves.

On the down side, it's simply more difficult to build a structurally safe aircraft that looks and feels like a Normal-category airplane while staying within the LSA standards. Surely designers don't intentionally cut corners on safety. Nonetheless, it's difficult for me to imagine that engineers designing LSA don't, from time to time, wish they could incorporate a beefier spar or more ribs into a wing without increasing weight and thus sacrificing useful load. And although some of the weight-saving innovations they've come up with are novel and even admirable, the LSA fleet is still put into the position of being a test bed, and those who fly these aircraft into being test pilots.

That many of these test pilots may have had streamlined training and may not be the picture of perfect health (the SP rule being designed, in my opinion, with flying something really simple, like the GT-500, in mind) further complicates the question of how safe LSA are. Granted, not even Sully would be likely to survive his airplane's wings folding up in flight. But is it possible that a general lack of skill and experience on the part of low-time, minimally trained pilots causes these LSA (especially those used for flight instruction or rental) to suffer the cumulative effects of frequent maneuvers outside the limits of their design envelopes?

Nonetheless, I think there exist some common-sense guidelines for pilots and potential purchasers or LSA. One is simply to be realistic in one's expectations. Don't expect an LSA to look and feel just like a Normal-category airplane. It's not. It was designed to stay within very inflexible weight limits, and something had to be sacrificed in order for it to comply. What was that "something?" I would prefer that it be a "something" that's not going to get me killed.

In addition, I think researching how extensively a design was tested before being put on the market, and waiting until it has proven itself in real-world flight, is a necessity when considering an LSA, perhaps more so than when considering any other purchase I could contemplate. I don't want to be a test pilot. The Skycatcher failures, for example, demonstrate that Cessna was willing to put its design to tests beyond those that were required, even at the cost of holding up production (and revenue) until the problems causing the failures were addressed.

-Rich
 
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