The Next Big Thing In General Aviation

If you are looking for a place to invest $500K and expect some growth from your investment, the high end of the GA market is the only place where there is any appreciable growth. That is a reflection of the growing schism between the "haves" and "have nots". The lower end of the GA spectrum was supported by a solid middle class that has been eviscerated. Spirit airlines is an air carrier and by definition is not a GA investment.

If you are looking to contribute $500K to have a positive impact and are not concerned about ROI, then there are a number of places where money could help. There are many GA mercy flight organizations (like the Air Charity Network, Corporate Angel Network and Honor Flight Network) that could use help, there are facilities like the Rhinbeck Aerodrome in New York and the Flying Circus in Virginia that serve to keep aviation history alive with flying antiques and there are restoration centers like the Smithsonian Air and Space Udvar Hazy museum that would be happy to take donations.
 
I do not think it is a coincidence that Spirit and Allegiant are doing as well as they are considering the state of the economy over the time period in which this has occurred. I suspect their popularity will go away as the economy strengths and people have the confidence and ability to buy better flights.

Spirit might not be a great airline but it doesn't make itself out to be. I think they're pretty clear about what they're selling.

If aviation history has taught us anything is that nay-sayers are usually wrong. Think about JetBlue. All the legacy guys thought that JetBlue would be under in a couple of years.

Worlds worst airline:

73363304.s1MDaVRt.jpg
 
If this was 1950, United States, where would you invest? Transfer that thought process to China and India, and in another 20 years, maybe Africa. They are your general aviation growth markets and where GA investments will show a return.
 
N747JB said:
Delta should be doing better, they got rid of their only real competitor in Atlanta, their biggest hub! With Airtran going away, they can raise fares as much as they want! :mad2::mad2:
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Is Southwest now pulling out of ATL?

At any rate, American proved that having a virtual monopoly of their main hub does not guarantee success.
 
Engine said:
Spirit might not be a great airline but it doesn't make itself out to be. I think they're pretty clear about what they're selling.
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Not unlike Ryanair in Europe. Wretched airline, but still and kicking.
 
Engine said:
I do not think it is a coincidence that Spirit and Allegiant are doing as well as they are considering the state of the economy over the time period in which this has occurred. I suspect their popularity will go away as the economy strengths and people have the confidence and ability to buy better flights.

Spirit might not be a great airline but it doesn't make itself out to be. I think they're pretty clear about what they're selling.

If aviation history has taught us anything is that nay-sayers are usually wrong. Think about JetBlue. All the legacy guys thought that JetBlue would be under in a couple of years.

Worlds worst airline:

73363304.s1MDaVRt.jpg
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All the other airlines are horrible. The service level delta between them is a rounding error. I'd pay the extra money if I felt like I was getting something for it. I'd have no issues trying Spirit out. I'll crawl before I get on another United flight. I'd rather be riding in the back of a hearse.
 
Aviation hockey sticked long ago.

You need to find something truly new for significant wealth growth.

Inside aviation there's are little companies once in a while that finds a niche that's growing, example Foreflight after someone else did the hard part (iPad). If your heart is set on investing in aviation, they're the way to go if they're interested in you as a partner. High risk, you'd probably be an angel venture capitalist type and there would only be a few of you in any particular highly risky venture.

Finding one at the stage where they know they have something viable and need capital to get it going, virtually requires that you be an insider.

Airlines? Don't make me laugh. Subsidized public transportation.
 
vdehart said:
I want to know what you guys think the next big thing in general aviation will be? Suppose I had approximately $500,000 to invest in something general aviation related that would benefit the community as a whole. What would you put your money into that would provide a significant return on investment?

I'm curious to see what you folks think the next big thing is.
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It kills my soul to be negative about this because I love General Aviation, but I'm afraid that the only way to get ROI from most anything GA related is to find a way to sell short.
 
denverpilot said:
Aviation hockey sticked long ago.

You need to find something truly new for significant wealth growth.

Inside aviation there's are little companies once in a while that finds a niche that's growing, example Foreflight after someone else did the hard part (iPad). If your heart is set on investing in aviation, they're the way to go if they're interested in you as a partner. High risk, you'd probably be an angel venture capitalist type and there would only be a few of you in any particular highly risky venture.

Finding one at the stage where they know they have something viable and need capital to get it going, virtually requires that you be an insider.

Airlines? Don't make me laugh. Subsidized public transportation.
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I really don't think Foreflight is seeking or needing a partner or influx of cash. Just my guess.
 
Flyhound said:
I believe you can fly any LSAs on an IFR flight plan under VFR conditions if you have the appropriate rating. I don't believe any LSA is certified for flight into IMC. Certainly the ASTM committee responsible for the LSA consensus standards voted to ban LSA flight into IMC.
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There are aircraft that meet the LSA criteria that can fly IFR. Some Experimental homebuilts and certified aircraft can be flown by a LS pilot in VFR conditions and by a PPL in IFR conditions including IMC provided the PPL has an instrument rating.
 
The next big thing that will happen in GA is some new regulation or regulation interpretation, in the name of improving safety, that will increase the cost or make aviation impossible for more people. The not so well hidden agenda is to regulate us FLIBs out of the air so we stop contributing to accident rates. (Says one who recently gave up and sold his plane)
 
Garmin's sales are stagnant, but the company is still profitable, and its stock pays a 3.5% dividend.

If you're looking for an investment that's better than raking your cash into a pile and burning it, that might qualify.
 
Art VanDelay said:
That's got to be without doubt THE crappiest airline on the face of the planet.
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You apparently have not had the pleasure of flying very many airlines in less prosperous parts of the planet. Some of them are good, but some are stunningly bad.

I know somebody who flew a domestic airline in China in the late 1980s, when the crew set up folding chairs in the aisle to accommodate extra passengers. Now that sets the standard, IMHO.
 
Maybe a little late to the party on this thread, but here's my 2 cents: Synergyaircraft.com


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Here is an aviation investment opportunity. The Mooney plant in Texas needs a new roof. I am sure you could work out a deal with the new owners. Might be a real contribution to GA.
 
Electric or hybrid light GA. Or new fuel to replace 100LL and STCs to modify engines on existing GA planes. This is going to be required anyways sooner rather than later.
 
docmirror said:
I will take that as a; 'no, I can't beat your ROI'.

Gotta say, I'm no stock pick genius or anything. I flew Spirit the first time in about Feb 13. The planes were PACKED to the gills, the website had a bazillion hits, so I looked at their LTD(another mentioned that) and took a position on them in early Mar last year. I got more last Sept and right now things are plenty fine. Maybe it'll crash, maybe it won't. I have a stop loss sell order for $45. We hit it early Feb this year, and I took a chance and told them to hold. I got lucky, and no shame in saying so.
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You're right, you're not a stock pick genius !
 
What is NEEDED are IFR GPS's that are easy to operate. So someone unfamiliar with the unit could use it with just the information on it. No need to know the box. Much like anyone can use a VOR. Basic function that is common to all the units. I dunno, its a hard problem. They have so much information and capability. But no one knows how to use them (except a dedicated owner that has flown it a lot).

I know how to use a King KLN90B and a Garmin 430 and I looked at a Garmin G500 flat panel and had no clue which button to push, sorry to say. And Garmin's are the best there is.
 
vdehart said:
I want to know what you guys think the next big thing in general aviation will be? Suppose I had approximately $500,000 to invest in something general aviation related that would benefit the community as a whole. What would you put your money into that would provide a significant return on investment?

I'm curious to see what you folks think the next big thing is.
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How about a reliable traffic count system for non-towered airports.
See http://aeropathsystems.com

Full disclosure: I do the programming for this outfit.:D
 
hyphen81 said:
Maybe a little late to the party on this thread, but here's my 2 cents: Synergyaircraft.com


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Those are the guys in Kalispell. I hope they make it but I won't be investing.
 
Why would the local airport want an accurate traffic count? Perhaps so they could get more government cheese for expansions that legitimately can't be justified? My airport claims 165 a day, let's figure a realistic 14 hour day, that works out to about 12 per hour, at no time have I ever seen that much traffic. The line guys say maybe 30 a day which is a long way from claimed numbers. Point of my rambling is if it would lead to cutbacks no one would support it.
 
Take part of the $500k, invest in something likely to benefit from whatever legislation you can buy with the remainder. I'd love to be able to put experimental stuff in my mooney. Wasn't there something for that? Primary non-commercial or somesuch?
 
Getonit said:
Why would the local airport want an accurate traffic count? Perhaps so they could get more government cheese for expansions that legitimately can't be justified? My airport claims 165 a day, let's figure a realistic 14 hour day, that works out to about 12 per hour, at no time have I ever seen that much traffic. The line guys say maybe 30 a day which is a long way from claimed numbers. Point of my rambling is if it would lead to cutbacks no one would support it.
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A single plane in the pattern doing T&G's is ~20 operations per hour.
 
Flyhound said:
I believe you can fly any LSAs on an IFR flight plan under VFR conditions if you have the appropriate rating. I don't believe any LSA is certified for flight into IMC. Certainly the ASTM committee responsible for the LSA consensus standards voted to ban LSA flight into IMC.
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You're right about new planes, but I know of one CTLS that is IFR certified and grandfathered at KCID Cedar Rapids.

Can one fly a standard certificated light sport compliant airplane properly and legally equipped on an IFR flight plan in IMC?

This is thread hijacking, but do you suppose that with ADS-B and the right GPS system could come automatic updating of altimeter settings, or maybe a notice to acknowledge a suggested update? Flying from 29.92 to 29.91, the altimeter either updates itself or dings till you choose to or ignore it.
 
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