The cost of owning?

John Baker

John Baker

Final Approach
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John Baker
I have no clue how many used airplanes are up for sale at this point, I also have no clue about just how many active pilots we have. I'm just wondering that if every active pilot could pick out any plane they wanted, for free, from the "for sale" used aircraft fleet on the market today, how many airplanes would not get a new owner? Or would there be active pilots who did not get an airplane?

I know the aviation industry is hurting big time right now, yet prices for everything, training, airplanes, avionics, repairs, etc. do not seem to be dropping at all. If anything, they are climbing.

I believe we have more equipment than we have current pilots who are interested, but I am just guessing.

Thoughts?

John
 
XM weather
Fuel totalizers
GPS
MFD's
ADS-B out
ADS-B in
TIS

Think about how much that stuff costs and how the airplane's flying
characteristics are completely unrelated to that stuff.

Low end airplanes are completely overwhelmed by the price of all the toys
people apparently absolutely must have in the airplane, even those just
flown VFR.
 
Bob Noel said:
XM weather
Fuel totalizers
GPS
MFD's
ADS-B out
ADS-B in
TIS

Think about how much that stuff costs and how the airplane's flying
characteristics are completely unrelated to that stuff.

Low end airplanes are completely overwhelmed by the price of all the toys
people apparently absolutely must have in the airplane, even those just
flown VFR.
Click to expand...

Yea, I couldn't live with this panel:
watermarked_2f8345638ddb708d2a10aea0c9f0141f.jpg


I had to add a Mode C Transponder.

I should probably get the turn coordinator fixed some day too.
 
Aircraft ownership has never been more affordable than it is right now. Used aircraft are available for a fraction of what they cost just 8 years ago.

Yet, few buyers are stepping forward. You can barely give an airplane away now.

If you ever needed a "canary in the coal mine" to measure confidence in our nation's economy, this is it. :sad:
 
Much more equipment out there than pilots, however, much of that equipment is unairworthy and financially unviable for restoration to flying condition. There is enough good equipment out there though that everyone who wants to own a plane can in nearly any reasonable budget.
 
Bob Noel said:
XM weather
Fuel totalizers
GPS
MFD's
ADS-B out
ADS-B in
TIS

Think about how much that stuff costs and how the airplane's flying
characteristics are completely unrelated to that stuff.

Low end airplanes are completely overwhelmed by the price of all the toys
people apparently absolutely must have in the airplane, even those just
flown VFR.
Click to expand...

I have none of these items, other than a hand-held GPS, and I get along just fine VFR and light IFR.
 
Henning said:
Much more equipment out there than pilots, however, much of that equipment is unairworthy and financially unviable for restoration to flying condition. There is enough good equipment out there though that everyone who wants to own a plane can in nearly any reasonable budget.
Click to expand...

Example: there's a cherokee 235 at GXY (Beegles) that had an unfortunate accident with another aircraft's prop while on the ground. Right wing is shredded, some fiberglass work needed on the cowl (or a replacement) and some other relatively "minor" work. Asking price on eBay is $22.5K. Estimate on repairs is $28K.

On the other hand, if an A&P wanted to work on it in spare time, this might be the same concept as "Flip This House".

Hm...Anyone here an A&P? We could start our own TV show, "Flip This Airplane"...oh wait, that's probably not a really good title.....
 
I think there are far more active pilots than there are airplanes for sale but that's counting all active pilots, not just GA-only pilots. How many would want an airplane if you gave it to them free is another question. Now if you gave it to them free and said the operating expenses were also free...
 
Jay Honeck said:
Aircraft ownership has never been more affordable than it is right now. Used aircraft are available for a fraction of what they cost just 8 years ago.

Yet, few buyers are stepping forward. You can barely give an airplane away now.

If you ever needed a "canary in the coal mine" to measure confidence in our nation's economy, this is it. :sad:
Click to expand...


I wouldn't say that. Acquisition cost is not the issue when speaking of used aircraft ownership. Clearly the fact that people can't give away planes shows this better than anything else.
 
I beg to differ - yep, prices have come down, but the ambitious are still buying. No better time to buy, as far as I can tell. Speaking of which... I'm going to have to change my username soon...
 
murphey said:
Example: there's a cherokee 235 at GXY (Beegles) that had an unfortunate accident with another aircraft's prop while on the ground. Right wing is shredded, some fiberglass work needed on the cowl (or a replacement) and some other relatively "minor" work. Asking price on eBay is $22.5K. Estimate on repairs is $28K.

On the other hand, if an A&P wanted to work on it in spare time, this might be the same concept as "Flip This House".

Hm...Anyone here an A&P? We could start our own TV show, "Flip This Airplane"...oh wait, that's probably not a really good title.....
Click to expand...

A friend of mine is an A&P/IA/Grand Champion home-builder, and he's doing just that. He and a partner decided to take advantage of this market, and buy tired old airplanes for a song, fix 'em up and sell 'em.

He found an old basket-case Cessna 180 that was stuffed in a barn somewhere, and restored it from the ground up. Every nut, bolt, wire, clamp has been checked, repaired or replaced. New paint, avionics, etc. It is gorgeous.

He's now done the same with a cool old TriPacer, a Champ, and an Ercoupe.

None of them have sold.

They're starting to get quite worried, as they've dropped the price several times. Soon, they will be at a "break-even" point, negating the entire year-long project. The market is *that* bad right now.
 
John Baker said:
I believe we have more equipment than we have current pilots who are interested, but I am just guessing.
Click to expand...
It has to be the case, I think. The number of GA pilots falls by about 700 per year. In the same time, GAMA reports about 1500 small airplanes sold (it varies with the market). I don't know how many hull losses happen, but we are looking at about 1800 accidents (350 fatal). Even if every acident was a write-off leding to scarpping of an airplane, we would still have 400 surplus airplanes every year that linger around airports waiting to be scrapped. Probably way more than that in reality.

Here's a sad Stinson that in all likelyhood will never find an owner:

20100820a1.jpg


-- Pete

P.S. A report I saw for 2000 suggested about 360 total losses, which means we would have a surplus even if new airplanes were not made at all.
 
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Fly-in's are a sobering reminder of the current pilot demographic. I've been to Oshkosh and three regional events since August. If those drawing social security checks had stayed home, the attendance would have dropped by at least 50%.
 
wabower said:
Fly-in's are a sobering reminder of the current pilot demographic. I've been to Oshkosh and three regional events since August. If those drawing social security checks had stayed home, the attendance would have dropped by at least 50%.
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When my 17 year old son flew our Ercoupe into OSH three years ago, he was a media star.

On the one hand, that's great. On the other hand, why should it be so special? What he did was not difficult, nor dangerous.

We have GOT to dispel the myth that "flying is hard" or "flying is expensive". There are 17 year olds all over the country playing golf with Ping clubs, and (especially down here on the Gulf coast) driving their dad's $400K boats -- why in the world anyone thinks a kid flying an $18K Ercoupe is "amazing" is just beyond me.

We are our own worst enemy.
 
murphey said:
Example: there's a cherokee 235 at GXY (Beegles) that had an unfortunate accident with another aircraft's prop while on the ground. Right wing is shredded, some fiberglass work needed on the cowl (or a replacement) and some other relatively "minor" work. Asking price on eBay is $22.5K. Estimate on repairs is $28K.

On the other hand, if an A&P wanted to work on it in spare time, this might be the same concept as "Flip This House".

Hm...Anyone here an A&P? We could start our own TV show, "Flip This Airplane"...oh wait, that's probably not a really good title.....
Click to expand...

Just how bad does "damage history" taint a plane's future resale?
 
Jay Honeck said:
We have GOT to dispel the myth that "flying is hard" or "flying is expensive". There are 17 year olds all over the country playing golf with Ping clubs, and (especially down here on the Gulf coast) driving their dad's $400K boats -- why in the world anyone thinks a kid flying an $18K Ercoupe is "amazing" is just beyond me.
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While I don't think flying is "hard" as in impossible for people of average intelligence to learn, I think it requires more effort and persistence than many people anticipate when they first start out. I think that's part of the reason there is a pretty low completion rate. I also think that flying is expensive, especially for the average 17-year-old. I wouldn't consider someone whose dad owns a $400K boat to have an average family income. I don't think it's the danger aspect which deters most people either. Many people perceive motorcycles as being dangerous and look how many riders there are. I think that flying requires a serious commitment of time, money and effort, as well as desire, and that the stars don't align like that for very many people.
 
Everskyward said:
While I don't think flying is "hard" as in impossible for people of average intelligence to learn, I think it requires more effort and persistence than many people anticipate when they first start out. I think that's part of the reason there is a pretty low completion rate. I also think that flying is expensive, especially for the average 17-year-old. I wouldn't consider someone whose dad owns a $400K boat to have an average family income. I don't think it's the danger aspect which deters most people either. Many people perceive motorcycles as being dangerous and look how many riders there are. I think that flying requires a serious commitment of time, money and effort, as well as desire, and that the stars don't align like that for very many people.
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The $400K boat owner is not "average" -- but there are certainly a brazillion of them down here on the Texas Gulf Coast, and they've got 17-year-old kids, just like we do.

Of course, to drive that boat requires about 10 minutes of instruction. To dock the boat takes much more, of course -- but nothing approaching a pilot's license.

Our best hope, I'm afraid, is technology. Once we start incorporating UAV software into aircraft (auto-land, primarily) we will start to see the pilot population grow again.

And then we'll be "the old timers" who actually "...used to land the plane ourselves!".

:wink2:
 
Discounting the "personal satisfaction, accomplishment, etc. factors" IMO it's hard to find an edeavor that is more costly and with less potential tangible return or future reward than learning to fly an airplane.

Everskyward said:
While I don't think flying is "hard" as in impossible for people of average intelligence to learn, I think it requires more effort and persistence than many people anticipate when they first start out. I think that's part of the reason there is a pretty low completion rate. I also think that flying is expensive, especially for the average 17-year-old. I wouldn't consider someone whose dad owns a $400K boat to have an average family income. I don't think it's the danger aspect which deters most people either. Many people perceive motorcycles as being dangerous and look how many riders there are. I think that flying requires a serious commitment of time, money and effort, as well as desire, and that the stars don't align like that for very many people.
Click to expand...
 
Learning to fly an airplane is easy, almost idiot work. learning to land an airplane can sometimes be a little challenging. Getting a permanent license to do either is a whole other matter altogether.

John
 
wabower said:
Discounting the "personal satisfaction, accomplishment, etc. factors" IMO it's hard to find an edeavor that is more costly and with less potential tangible return or future reward than learning to fly an airplane.
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Of course it's the intangible rewards that motivate most of us, like being able to take ourselves and friends to fun destinations in an hour or two that would take several hours of driving to reach. I spent yesterday afternoon riding my bicycle up M-37 from TVC, had dinner at the Red Mesa Grill, rode back to the airport at sunset, and on the flight home enjoyed a beautiful sunset from the air and the lights of dozens of towns and cities spread out below along the way. I can't put a pricetag on being able to do that, it never gets old and friends I've taken along seem to agree. :)

I don't think it is really that difficult to learn to fly an airplane but I agree that it takes effort, dedication, some money, and the luck to have enough spare time over a few months to devote to training. OTOH the actual kind of flying that most of us (including myself) do isn't the kind that takes any real stick-and-rudder skill. I'm not really as much a pilot as an airplane driver, my car just has wings. :D
 
I am blue collar. I think we should try to appeal to more blue collar folk as potential pilots. I have a number of friends who have spent more than enough on bikes to be pilots and aircraft owners. I think AOPA is almost elitist, by only reaching out to a more affluent class and ignores the common folk as potential pilots. DaveR
 
The only color that matters in aviation is green.

Ddayle said:
I am blue collar. I think we should try to appeal to more blue collar folk as potential pilots. I have a number of friends who have spent more than enough on bikes to be pilots and aircraft owners. I think AOPA is almost elitist, by only reaching out to a more affluent class and ignores the common folk as potential pilots. DaveR
Click to expand...
 
wabower said:
The only color that matters in aviation is green.
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not as much green as most people think. And the FACT that flying CAN be affordable to a far great segment of the population is exactly my point. I would like to own. I look & drool over cheap aircraft. I could never afford the planes I fly, but an excellent club(actually i belong to 2) makes flying planes i can not afford to own a reality. I even WON my rookie outing as a racer at the Great NW air race at KEAT this June in a club aircraft, w/o exceeding the POH & using 75% cruise most of the flight. I spend no more , in fact often less on flying than a lot of my drag racing street rod & biker pals. I did give up riding dirt bikes, the money I spent there is now my flying money. I still race & show my car but spend a lot less on it now. Slowly a few of my pals are beginning to show an interest. Does it matter if a pilot doesn't ever wear a tie? DaveR
 
Sorry, folks, but the argument that "flying is just too expensive" begs the question -- what kind of flying?

Cross country 400nm IMC at 200 knots will be a bit more expensive than VFR 80 MPH at 500' AGL.
 
Expensive is directly related to ones income and available disposable income. A person who manages their money well can earn as little as thirty thousand a year and find that their flying is easily affordable. Another person who earns eighty or more thousand a year might find flying to be way beyond their financial wherewithal.

Most people I talk to who are not pilots, will tell me that although they would like to know how to fly an airplane, they feel it to be a frivolous waste of money.

John
 
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Jay Honeck said:
The $400K boat owner is not "average" -- but there are certainly a brazillion of them down here on the Texas Gulf Coast, and they've got 17-year-old kids, just like we do.

Of course, to drive that boat requires about 10 minutes of instruction. To dock the boat takes much more, of course -- but nothing approaching a pilot's license.

Our best hope, I'm afraid, is technology. Once we start incorporating UAV software into aircraft (auto-land, primarily) we will start to see the pilot population grow again.

And then we'll be "the old timers" who actually "...used to land the plane ourselves!".

:wink2:
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99% of boat owners/operators could benefit from hours of instruction approaching that of a private pilot certificate.
 
dmccormack said:
Sorry, folks, but the argument that "flying is just too expensive" begs the question -- what kind of flying?

Cross country 400nm IMC at 200 knots will be a bit more expensive than VFR 80 MPH at 500' AGL.
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I fly 172's 150's 182's & a PA28-180. 90 hours last yr. learned after I was 50. spent 7k learning. Yes i admit if i needed to fly a citation X or a war bird to satisfy my flying bug, It would be unaffordable. But I can jaunt to the ocean (1 hr) or explore the foothills, (our foothills are bigger than what the east coasters call mountains) fifteen minutes away.
 
If the same amount of instruction were required, boat sales would plummet. A guy can go for a ride in a friend's boat and immediately envision himself basking in his own cruiser next weekend. Not so with an airplane.

When I talk to golfers at the practice range, they are always dragging out some new club they bought, only to find it doesn't work as well as they had hoped. Watching them swing it is proof plenty of the underlying reason why. When I ask if they ever took a lesson, they offer many reasons why not. Bottom line is that people will spend money for hardware (and hoped-for immediate gratification) but not for training and practice necessary to improve.

alaskaflyer said:
99% of boat owners/operators could benefit from hours of instruction approaching that of a private pilot certificate.
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wabower said:
If the same amount of instruction were required, boat sales would plummet. A guy can go for a ride in a friend's boat and immediately envision himself basking in his own cruiser next weekend. Not so with an airplane.
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The other thing we don't like to talk about so much as a deterrent to flying is the level of regulation. You don't need to have a medical to drive a boat. You also don't need to pass a checkride or keep current to be legal. I'm sure there are some rules but not nearly as many as in aviation. I wonder if boating forums have people parsing each word of a regulation. I wonder if boaters get on other boaters for not using the proper phraseology...
 
I think the real problem is that you can't drink quite as much when you're flying.:wink2:

Everskyward said:
The other thing we don't like to talk about so much as a deterrent to flying is the level of regulation. You don't need to have a medical to drive a boat. You also don't need to pass a checkride or keep current to be legal. I'm sure there are some rules but not nearly as many as in aviation. I wonder if boating forums have people parsing each word of a regulation. I wonder if boaters get on other boaters for not using the proper phraseology...
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All great points. Sidestep the airman certification aspect for a second, let's talk about the aircraft certification. There's your ugly baby. Automotive equivalent parts and maintenance complexity circa 1940s and you pay Ferrari dealership markup for your troubles and like another poster said, the rat trap isn't any faster than it was in ' 68. No thanks.

We need to get a better handle on the tort law aspect of this equation, it's ridiculous. Sue-happy is keeping this thing prohibitive. Going experimental is one conduit to circumvent some of this, but it's not the full answer. And the day somebody successfully sues a prior builder/owner for an experimental mishap, that's when we might as well go home and turn in the headsets because the game will be over at that point for the working stiffs amongst us.

It ain't like we really need full scale static and dynamic failure testing on our de facto motorcycle with wings, and pay the legal fee for it. Let me put it this way, if I can feel relatively safe driving around a 1993 buick, with the material and manufacturing technology of the day, and consider myself to be as close to as safe as if I was driving the 09 model, then it stands to reason I could fly the 1970s contraption without having to pay boeing 777 certification testing prices for it. Let's just accept a little bit of personal accountability for the fact that life's kinda a crapshoot, and live a little already.

Of course I'm jousting at windmills; there's no political capital to turn the clock on tort law in this country. GA will continue getting more prohibitive. It will be left to the law-benders amongst us on one pool, and those who outright have more money than skill on the other, to remain flying. The rest will be left looking up at the sky. It's a damn shame.
 
Jay Honeck said:
We have GOT to dispel the myth that "flying is hard" or "flying is expensive".
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I disagree. It is a simple fact that among my expensive hobbies it definitely is the most expensive. And it is not just the most expensive, it outstrips everything else by order of magnitude. In fact, my flying expense not only dwarfs the discretionary spending, it exceeds my mortgage payments.

We have GOT to stop living in denial about the expense of flying. Only then the solutions can be found.

-- Pete
 
Well, little lady, since you asked . . . *evil smirk, twirls mustache*:wink2:

We flew to the lake for breakfast last weekend, and on the way out saw the boats all rafted up on north island in Texoma, one of the benefits of a warm October. I assume they were all drinking Bloody Marys and cooking on the beach. Maybe we should re-think this aviation stuff. :D



Everskyward said:
That too. What would happen to "party cove"?
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wabower said:
We flew to the lake for breakfast last weekend, and on the way out saw the boats all rafted up on north island in Texoma, one of the benefits of a warm October. I assume they were all drinking Bloody Marys and cooking on the beach. Maybe we should re-think this aviation stuff. :D
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Maybe you should put some floats on the C180. :yes:
 
You're right, it would be a hoot. I've toyed with it, but straight floats aren't practical here and it won't fit in the hangar with amphibs.

flyingcheesehead said:
Maybe you should put some floats on the C180. :yes:
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zaitcev said:
I disagree. It is a simple fact that among my expensive hobbies it definitely is the most expensive. And it is not just the most expensive, it outstrips everything else by order of magnitude. In fact, my flying expense not only dwarfs the discretionary spending, it exceeds my mortgage payments.
Click to expand...

I'd be interested to know what you're flying.

Flying can certainly be expensive, no doubt about that, but it doesn't *have* to be. Certifications and medical issues aside, I think the biggest problem GA has with the general public is its perceived cost. Going out on a limb, basically every golfer or boat owner I know could own a decent, 70s-era C172 or similar, but they sure don't realize it.
 
About a year ago, I was flinging the bull with an avionics shop owner, I asked him, when you can buy old radios, CB equipment, stereos, short wave radios, etc., on the used market for pennies on the dollar, why on earth does it cost several or more thousand dollars for a used K-155?

His answer was simple, "people will pay it." That, in a nutshell, is our whole maintenances and equipment problem. We will not only pay it, we have to pay it if we want to fly our own airplanes.

A boat will suck up your money like anything else, but the difference between boats and airplanes is that a boat owner puts the money into his boat at his own discretion. An airplane owner puts his money into his airplane at the FAA's discretion. We are a captive audience, through regulation, we have no choice, but to pay.

John
 
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