Tesla Model 3 - Now I get the hype.

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by flyingcheesehead, Nov 9, 2018.

  1. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    All those experts have math problems. For example, use the numbers from Tesla in Q2 is $408 Million loss, and 95,356 cars delivered (revenue recognition).
    That is a loss around $4K per car, less than 40% of what the experts are stating.


    Tim
     
  2. wayne

    wayne Pattern Altitude

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    What the heck is a family earning $153k doing buying a $90k+ car? My wife and I earn more that that and haven't spent that much on our last 4 car purchases combined.

    I wouldn't want to spend the $55-60k for the Model 3; yeah it supposedly starts at $35k, but....





    2018 median family income is $61,858.


    Wayne
     
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  3. wayne

    wayne Pattern Altitude

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    The bulk of those "subsidies" are standard tax deductions that any business can take advantage of.

    Remember the zero taxes that Amazon had?



    Wayne
     
  4. wayne

    wayne Pattern Altitude

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    I wonder why. Are the batteries that much? Or is the low volume hurting them?

    I looked at the Kia Niro EV and it looked like it was about $10-15k more than the ICE version.

    And they are still losing $10k?



    Wayne
     
  5. Cap'n Jack

    Cap'n Jack Final Approach

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    I just got a letter from my electric company I'm eligible for $7500 in tax credits for buying an electric vehicle. That doesn't sound like a subsidy either.
     
  6. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Depending on the structure of your electric company, and whether they are tax supported or not, it sounds more like an incentive than a subsidy. I have no problem with private companies offering discounts, or purchase incentives, as long as it isn't coming out of my pocket.
     
  7. Cap'n Jack

    Cap'n Jack Final Approach

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    It says "Federal electric vehicle tax credits"
     
  8. TheGolfPilot

    TheGolfPilot Line Up and Wait

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    My model 3 cost me just over $50k out the door. It’s a 4.4 0-60 car and runs me $7 to drive 300 miles. Access to fast charger that add 180 miles of range in the time it takes me to take a **** and wait in line for a candy bar, has Two motors (AWD) and requires very little Maintaince (tire rotation if you feel like it and tire replacement every 40k miles or so)
    Did I mention the car drives itself on the highway? It crushes it in the safety ratings.
    It’s super fun to drive.
    The car has gotten quicker, and has more features now than when I bought it.
    Not to mention I now have an emissions free garage now that I spend a ton of time in. I can get home from a drive and actually use my garage without it getting hot, that’s awesome. The five year cost of owning a $40k Tesla rivals an entry level Camry. I don’t understand why anybody would want anything else in that category of vehicle. Like I said earlier, I spent $20k less in aviation costs the first year I had my Tesla because I was using the car to go places I never would have driven to in a conventional car. In 3 years the car will pay for itself and all its electricity and a set of tires thanks to that alone.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
     
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  9. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    A big variable is living expenses where a family lives. DC, NYC or San Francisco and I’d guess $153k barely covers basic living expenses. In most of rural America, a LOT of that $153k would be left over to pay for a $90k car.

    My friend’s Model 3 was just over $40k. Lots of Acuras, Infinitys, Jaguars and Mercedes exceed that by a lot. In fact, many Accords, Sentras and Jeep Gladiators cost more.

    I guess I’m just saying $40k for a Tesla doesn’t seem all that rich anymore.
     
  10. wayne

    wayne Pattern Altitude

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    The Tesla fanboys call it an incentive. The Tesla haters call it a subsidy. :D

    Power customers are wondering who is paying for this.

    Probably the power company wanting someone to use more of their capacity at night, which helps them with costs.
     
  11. wayne

    wayne Pattern Altitude

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    The $153k income was the average for Model S buyers. The $128k was the average for Model 3 buyers.

    Most of the Teslas are going to the coasts and cities; at least what I read and that's from those that like Teslas.

    My wife and I talked about this just last night. We are definitely not in the "spend a lot on cars" category. Just over $40k for a Camry sized car seems like a lot to me. An EV would fit me very well. My one-way commute is 15 miles, even less if I take the direct surface streets, but that takes more time. My prior one-way commute was just 10 miles. I typically only drive ~8,000 / year and fly private or commercial for pretty much any traveling. We have a garage and the power panel is in there, so we could add a 240v outlet in there easily. We certainly could afford one. Just the sticker shock is a bit much for us.
     
  12. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Exactly. I think the idea for citing the median income levels by Model is highlighting that it seems crazy to spend that much money on a car. Dropping $50K+ for the average Model 3 just seems insane to spend that much of a portion of your annual household income on a depreciating asset. It's all relative of course, since you have to spend some portion on a vehicle every so often, but almost half of annual income on something to drive 30 miles/day? I'd balk, too. I suppose that's why they make Honda Civics for half that price.
     
  13. dudemize

    dudemize Filing Flight Plan

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    I have to stop reading this thread! I currently drive a Chevy Volt, and love it, however a Model 3 is definitely on my mind. As Golfpilot mentioned, I too wonder if I had a Model 3 with autopilot if I wouldn’t start driving a lot more instead of flying. I would certainly save a ton of money if I sold the Deb and bought a Tesla.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2019
  14. Cap'n Jack

    Cap'n Jack Final Approach

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    Yep, and I see the names in reverse too. The Tesla fanatics call the petroleum incentives "subsidies", while the Tesla haters call them "tax breaks" :rolleyes:

    The letter I received said it was a "Federal electric credit tax break" for an electric vehicle.
     
  15. Velocity173

    Velocity173 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Gotta gen 1 Volt and love it as well. 166 mpg lifetime. Test drove a Model 3 last week and to be honest, I’ll keep my Volt.

    To me, the best selling point, minus the awkward center screen, is the car’s looks. Same reason for aircraft I buy; looks and performance. In this case, the car really is beautiful. All these other new EVs except the I-Pace, have cheap looking styling. The Model 3 is well appointed inside and has classy modern styling outside. Forget all the auto pilot nonsense, it’s just a good looking high performance vehicle.

    Still don’t care for all the panel automation. Too many menus to navigate while driving. To move the steering wheel requires going into the menu for the tilt feature, then using a thumb wheel. Same for wipers. For both of those, I’d prefer a stalk / lever. Also, too much of a distraction looking right when a small LCD or HUD would’ve sufficed.

    Ride was stiff but I really prefer that type of sporty suspension. Reminded me of a BMW M3. I’m a coaster so I didn’t care at all for the regen even at “low.” If you drive your Volt in low then you would like this. Obviously the acceleration is a selling point but I think a lot of people who go nuts over it, are moving up from a Prius or something and have never experienced acceleration like that. If you’ve ever driven a sub 4 sec 0-60 car, then you’ll have the same feeling only it’s a quiet, smooth push. Very addictive. Visibility is outstanding, especially if you compare it to the horrible visibility out of a gen 1 Volt. Has substantial wind / road noise and I even thought the AC was loud due to the long slit the air comes out of. All of these noises are a common thing with the 3 and you can read about it on the Tesla forum.

    Didn’t get to use auto pilot but it’s not something I’d be interested in. I’ve watched several vids on YT and it looks more work intensive than just driving on your own. You still have to have your hands on the wheel and be attentive to what’s going on outside. No way those cameras / radar will hold up in rain, ice, dust etc. It’s only gonna work under the best of circumstances.

    Immersive sound system is excellent. It has some sort Pandora type setup but I’m more of a iPod / CD guy. Heck, most of the time I just listen to free local stations.

    Would I take it over my Volt? Sure I would but it’s at a bare min (for me) $45K investment with serious drawbacks. You can find many reports of poor customer service, poor QC at the factory (still) requiring many visits to the service center, lack of spare parts taking months to get a fender, expensive parts and high insurance premiums. God forbide you bring up any of these issues to the fan boys. They’ve got blinders on because they’re saving the environment.

    So to me it comes down to disposable income. I just can’t see spending this much on a car. I’d never buy a Volt for it’s original price ($43k) and I cant see spending it on a Tesla either. And while it would save me money driving vs flying, it still can’t compare. Next month I’ll be flying 3 hrs on a trip in the Velocity vs 10 hrs driving. I’ll spend the extra cash to fly.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2019
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  16. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    See, after having rented one for a week, I would say in reality it's the complete opposite. Yeah, you can spend a ton of time right at first getting everything set just right, but how often are you going to adjust your wheel and seats after that, especially since it knows who's driving and will automatically choose your entire driver profile and preferences, not just the seat/wheel? In reality, once I had everything dialed in on the first day I never had to touch any of it again. And I was completely used to the center display by the end of the first day (I drove about 2-3 hours).

    Again, that was not my experience at all. Autopilot did a stellar job even in the rain, at night - In fact, I would say it did a better job of holding the lane than I'd have been able to. There were a lot of distracting reflections with the various city lights reflecting off the shiny wet road and I was blown away at how well it did. I'd have thought it wouldn't have worked in those circumstances at all too, and I was really impressed.
     
  17. Stingray Don

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    Last edited: Sep 23, 2019
  18. Zeldman

    Zeldman Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Just curious, how much does it cost to use a charging station when away from home.??
     
  19. Stingray Don

    Stingray Don En-Route

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    Right now it’s free for the first two years. Normally runs .26 per kWh, which is significantly cheaper than gas.

    https://www.tesla.com/supercharger
     
  20. Cap'n Jack

    Cap'n Jack Final Approach

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    Having driven an number of rental cars, I'm a bit amazed how much of the panel the steering wheel sometimes hides. I sometimes wonder of the center display is nicer? Having said this, I don't have a problem seeing the speedometer in the same cars, which I consider a primary instrument.
     
  21. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    What exactly do you need to see? Fuel gauge and a speedometer are about all that’s needed anymore. Don’t get me wrong, I love watching the needles dance on a muscle car where there are no “idiot lights” when you love oil pressure or have engine temp get out of range. However, on modern cars I really don’t see much need for anything else since most gauges are designed to read “normal” for a wide range of conditions, so the needles don’t move much once the engine is warm.
     
  22. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    That’s a very good point. In my Clarity, I enjoy watching a “power flow” display indicating power going to or from the battery and engine, and a small icon that shows up when the car decides to drive the front wheels directly from the engine*. The display looks like this:

    upload_2019-9-23_21-39-50.jpeg

    I enjoy the show, and driving my friend’s Model 3 I felt information-deprived. But really, all you need to know, other than nav data, is how fast you’re going and how much range you have left, both of which were easy to see.

    I can be a tech nerd, but sometimes have to admit that simpler is better.


    *There’s no transmission, per sé, so the engine can drive the front wheels directly only when certain conditions are met - speed between 45-70 mph and certain loads. When running the engine in hybrid mode, it’s the most fuel efficient mode, moreso than the engine charging the battery and then drawing from the battery to drive the wheels. Cool, but quite complex compared to the Tesla.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2019
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  23. dudemize

    dudemize Filing Flight Plan

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    Nice write up . Thanks! My Volt is a Gen 1 as well (2015). I’m right around 184 mpg lifetime. I need to check out a Model 3 sometime. I’ve been in the X and S, never driven a Tesla though.

    Def keeping the airplane for now. No way I can afford both!
     
  24. Velocity173

    Velocity173 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Dang you rarely use ICE on that thing. Wish I had a 2015. Bigger battery and don’t have to worry about the infamous stator bearing failure.
     
  25. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    My Volt is a Gen 1 as well (2013). Unfortunately, my mileage has been going down significantly. I took a new job with a much longer commute (65 miles to my downtown office, 75 miles to the airport) so I'm burning a lot more gas these days. The i3 I used to have would be an ideal commuter now... Doh! Unfortunately, i3s are way too expensive for what they are unless you happen upon a sweet deal like I had ($155/mo lease takeover), so I'll have to continue waiting and saving for the Tesla.

    We are getting a second office at the airport, though, and it's going to have a charging spot for me, so that should help a lot on days I work there.
     
  26. dudemize

    dudemize Filing Flight Plan

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    Truth be told, the lifetime MPG on the display is 125 mpg. When I bought the car it had about 3,000 miles on it (had been on the lot a while) and had been driven mostly on the ICE as near as I can tell (lifetime was around 40 mpg). I set up one of the trip meters to track the mpg since purchase, which is where the 184 came from.
     
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  27. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I did exactly the same thing! Mine had about 92,000 miles on it, and it didn't seem to have been plugged in much... Something like 53 mpg lifetime when I picked it up. I've only put about 10,000 on it, and my personal number went up to about 130 and now is knocking on the door of 100 again with the long commute.
     
  28. Cap'n Jack

    Cap'n Jack Final Approach

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    Voltmeter, temperature gauge. Even if "normal" covers a wide range, it is good to quickly note "abnormal" so I can deal with the issue in a safer place than a highway, if possible. for my own vehicle, I learn what is really "normal". Any plane I've flown has much better visibility and access of all the gauges and controls. For rental cars, the arrow pointing to the side with the filler cap is important, since I learn where it is for my own vehicles. That is usually hidden by the steering wheel. I suppose on EVs, it would show the side where the plug is located.
     
  29. Caramon13

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    Bolded the area you mentioned for emphasis. This. Too many flashy panels and excessive information leads to distracted driving. But officer, I was watching the spinny wheel thingy to optimize my braking habits!!!!

    <sigh>..

    I am also a tech nerd and I admit it would be hard to resist the spinny wheel thingy. Simpler = better.
     
  30. PPC1052

    PPC1052 En-Route

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    Don't worry. All of our doughnut shops have recharging stations.
     
  31. wayne

    wayne Pattern Altitude

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    How many kWh do you need to buy to fill the battery? There are losses. After 80% the charge rate slows. I've read that after 95% it is really slow. Is the slowing an increase in the losses, or just that the battery won't take it as quickly? I'm curious, does it take more power or just more time to fill the battery.
     
  32. wayne

    wayne Pattern Altitude

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    Maybe I'm doing the math wrong, but I see that as very similar in cost.

    The EPA rated the 2017 90D Model S's energy consumption at 3.096 miles per kWh. That's $0.26 / 3.096 or $0.084 / mile. (0.0839793282).

    I drive a Ford Mustang Convertible V6 w/ manual transmission. I get ~23 mpg mixed commuting daily, 28+ mpg cruising the interstates. Gas just went up to $2.65/gal from ~$2.20/gal a couple of weeks ago. Mixed with current price is $2.65 / 23 or $0.115 / mile. (0.1152173913).

    You're saving 3.1 cents per mile. I drive 8,000 miles / year. That's $248 / year. Yawn.

    Ok, so what did I do wrong in the math?

    Yes, I know there is additional savings in maintenance, but you were talking about significant savings in fuel costs over gas.

    At home I could charge cheaper than that. Our power price is tiered and seasonal; it costs more in summer and the more we use in the summer the higher the price gets. In the summer the most it would cost me is 0.097/kWh. October to May it would cost 0.049 or 0.047 per kWh. That would be a lot cheaper. At $0.047 / 3.096 would be $0.015/mile (0.0151808786). That would save me $800/year, and I don't get that rate all year long. Still not enough to overcome the $60-70k cost difference in the cars, but definitely a savings.

    At some point I'll probably get an EV. Maybe even my next car, so I'm not an EV hater. I'm not going to run out and buy a $90k BMW 7 Series either. I just can't get myself to spend that much on a car.
     
  33. PPC1052

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    Yeah? How are you going to get to the airport?
     
  34. SoonerAviator

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    Just about every modern car will alert you if something falls outside of the normal range. It will throw an idiot light or warning chime/display a message/etc. You'll likely never notice the gauge drop before the car alerts you to the problem. Like I said, I get the desire for the instruments. I still have a periodic scan of my dash instruments every few minutes because that's how I learned to drive. However, if the gauge stays centered on "normal" when the battery voltage is 12V or 14.4V, what good does it do you to have it? Same with engine temp. If it's running 170 or 190, but the needle stays in the same spot, what information is it providing you? I agree with the filler cap icon, as I drive rentals monthly and have for over a decade of work travel. However, I don't really need it to be "in view" on the dash at all times, and I mentioned that having the speedometer and fuel gauge/range are really the only two indicators I need to see. If I'm driving the '67 Vette, I want the full gamut of oil pressure/engine temp/voltage gauges because I don't want to trash a 427cu in engine because the oil pump failed, or have it overheat while sitting in traffic on a hot day.
     
  35. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    There is a point where driving on electric costs more than driving on gas.

    It depends, of course, on the price of electricity and the price of gas where you live. And the fuel efficiency of your hybrid - I get about 42 mpg in the Clarity.

    Electricity rates vary widely. Thanks to Roosevelt and the TVA, rates tend to be lower where we live, around .15 per kw/hr in GA, .11 in TN all taxes and fees included. Elsewhere in the US rates can be a lot higher. But in general, when gas gets down to around $2/gal, it may be cheaper to just run on gas and not worry about charging.
     
  36. Stingray Don

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    The charging rate does slow down but that is only to protect the battery. You are just paying by the kWh and not per minute. I believe there are some Superchargers that do charge by the minute but it is tiered according to the charge rate.
     
  37. Stingray Don

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    The calculator on the Tesla website compares the cost of supercharging a Model 3 versus a gas car getting 28 MPG and $2.85 per gallon. This equates to about a 1/3 cost savings, which is still significant. However, keep in mind that the vast majority of your charging is done at home. It costs me about $4.25 to charge from 0 to full charge with a range of 310 miles versus $52 for the same range in my Jeep Liberty. That’s a cost savings of over 90%. I will save over $2,000 a year on fuel alone. Also, there are many free public chargers as well. There is even a free EV charger at my home airport.
     
  38. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    I think the high electric prices and high gas prices areas tend to go together. The spread between them and the amount of driving you do play a very large factor in determining if an EV is cost effective.

    For example, I used to work with a regional sales manager, he drove an average just over 200 miles visiting customers and managing sales staff. Occasionally he would hit 300 miles in a single day. At 50K miles a year, it places a very high maintenance burden on the car. A Tesla S; with the max range battery and all the options was cheaper on a monthly basis; including financing when compared to his previous paid off BMW 7 Series. He showed my the spread sheet; when you drive that much, OpEx is brutal on a gas car. He had a roughly $600 MX bill on the BMW every month for just scheduled work; and one larger scheduled bill once a year.

    Tim
     
  39. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Those gauges aren't telling you what you think they are. Most automotive gauges now are essentially dummy lights. They'll show a nice pre-selected value any time they're anywhere in the normal range, and a completely different (and bad) value if the associated system fails. They aren't really analog any more, and they won't alert you any earlier than a dummy light. Alternator's weak, and system voltage is 13 volts? Your gauge will still happily show 14.5 volts until the alternator fails entirely.

    In my *other* Tesla. :D
     
  40. wayne

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    wayne
    You have some cheap power. That's about $0.0425 per kWh; 310 miles should be ~100 kWh. We get close to that rate outside of summer, but it's higher in the summer. All the AC costs for keeping things cool here in Hotlanta in the summer drive up the rates. Georgia Power also has a plan for EV users where the night time rate is only 1 cent per kWh, but the peak time from 2 pm - 7 pm is 20 cents per kWh. :eek: Guess when the AC needs to run the most. :( Plus if the electric oven is needed for dinner.... If the Tesla batteries weren't so expensive one could do that rate and charge the battery at night for $0.01/kWh and then use it during the 2-7 pm peak rate time. :cool: