(Soon to be) Hurricane Lee; This could be ugly

J

JOhnH

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Right Seater
Projected to be a CAT 4.

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Nothing like the media hyping up a tropical storm ,not even sure where it’s going.
 
Lame stream media loves to push the climate angle ... this might be the second hurricane of the season ... a few years back before climate change became "cool", I think the Gulf had 4 or 5 enter in one season ... not counting I think 2 went up the east coast ...
 
Brad W said:
It's way too early to really even say this...not worth much at this point
but the spaghetti models I saw have it turning up roughly towards Bermuda
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Both the European and GFS models have it going that way.
 
Having lived through Charley, Irma, Ian, and a number of smaller storms including most recently Idalia I can confidently say it does not matter if it is the storm of the century or not. They can all put a damper on your life not to mention your bank account.
 
danhagan said:
Lame stream media loves to push the climate angle ... this might be the second hurricane of the season ... a few years back before climate change became "cool", I think the Gulf had 4 or 5 enter in one season ... not counting I think 2 went up the east coast ...
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The forecast for this season is for a lower count due to El Nino in the pacific. This causes trouble for storms trying to develop into hurricanes. Don't worry, climate change still exists and matters even if there aren't record breaking storms this particular season.
 
douglas393 said:
Having lived through Charley, Irma, Ian, and a number of smaller storms including most recently Idalia I can confidently say it does not matter if it is the storm of the century or not. They can all put a damper on your life not to mention your bank account.
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Are the aircraft flown out or are they in a sturdy hanger, if there is such a thing. Imagine insurance coverage would be hard to get.
 
172andyou said:
The forecast for this season is for a lower count due to El Nino in the pacific. This causes trouble for storms trying to develop into hurricanes. Don't worry, climate change still exists and matters even if there aren't record breaking storms this particular season.
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Not worried. Fortunately, the planet is cooling. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/
That’s good right? Because I heard somewhere that a warm planet is bad. Which I never really understood because wouldn’t that mean that plants would grow more in warm climates.
But, I just support the latest thing. So much easier.
 
Salty said:
People have always died from climate. Both cold and warm. I know which I'd choose if I had to choose one or the other.
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Me too. We're better adapted to hot weather, and now people die from cold than hot, so global warming is saving lives. Not to mention that weather-related financial losses have been decreasing.
 
danhagan said:
Lame stream media loves to push the climate angle ... this might be the second hurricane of the season ... a few years back before climate change became "cool", I think the Gulf had 4 or 5 enter in one season ... not counting I think 2 went up the east coast ...
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Could be worse, so people have been pushing the end for the last 2000 years.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Not worried. Fortunately, the planet is cooling. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/
That’s good right? Because I heard somewhere that a warm planet is bad. Which I never really understood because wouldn’t that mean that plants would grow more in warm climates.
But, I just support the latest thing. So much easier.
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This is not a research paper - it's an editorial. It was invited by the editor of Temperature (which is a physiology, not a climate journal) as the author (Zharkova) had to retract the original research publication due to errors. You can read about the drama here: https://phys.org/news/2020-03-retracted-paper-climate-distance-sun.html

If you want another discussion of solar irradiance and climate you can read this summary from NASA: https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age
 
AlleyCat67 said:
This is not a research paper - it's an editorial. It was invited by the editor of Temperature (which is a physiology, not a climate journal) as the author (Zharkova) had to retract the original research publication due to errors. You can read about the drama here: https://phys.org/news/2020-03-retracted-paper-climate-distance-sun.html

If you want another discussion of solar irradiance and climate you can read this summary from NASA: https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age
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FWIW, I did read that one, but its conclusion didn't fit my narrative. So, I went with the other one.
 
I'm old enough to remember the worries (in the 1970's) about a resurgence of the ice age that was ending . . .back when Time magazine was the souece of most people's opinions. . .no dog in the fight; it might be getting cooler. Or warmer. Or maybe not. And it might be our fault. Or not. . .
 
fast99 said:
Are the aircraft flown out or are they in a sturdy hanger, if there is such a thing. Imagine insurance coverage would be hard to get.
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Did not have a plane during Charley started flying a few years later, but the airport, KPGD, sustained quite a bit of damage . My I n structural lost her 210, though a few of my friends sustained little or no damage. Some of the hangars from what I understand were damaged but most did well. For the other storms I had my plane in a hangar and no damage. The airport w a s c l owed for about a month after Ian but remained open after the o t her storms. Do not know how long it was closed after Charley. I am sure some moved their planes but do not know anyone who did. As for insurance as far as I know I am covered and have not had any issues getting insurance and the price seems in line with others not in hurricane alley
 
Right now it’s track takes it between US coastline and Bermuda and hitting near Maine, but it should be weaker by then because of wind shear and cold waters.
 
Good site aggregating lots of storm tracking sites:

Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment!

spaghettimodels.com spaghettimodels.com

Path looks dire now, but theoretically the jet stream will veer it off to the NE before it gets to the mainland US.

As an aside, maybe the global warming debate deserves its own thread - I’d hate to see this one locked due to a derail.
 
My
focal_plane said:
Yep, climate has been changing for about 4.5 Billion years. It will continue to change long after humans have departed.
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And people have been dying for and long as there have been people. But I still try to put it off for as long as possible. And when it does come i intend to make it as painless as possible.
 
FastEddieB said:
Good site aggregating lots of storm tracking sites:

Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment!

spaghettimodels.com spaghettimodels.com

Path looks dire now, but theoretically the jet stream will veer it off to the NE before it gets to the mainland US.

As an aside, maybe the global warming debate deserves its own thread - I’d hate to see this one locked due to a derail.
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Weird. I would have expected a URL like 'spaghettimodels.com' to go to something COMPLETELY different.

That's an interesting site. Lots of stuff consolidated in one place. The layout reminds me of some of the first websites I built when I first learned the 'magic' of HTML tables and background colors. Not sure how you could get that much content condensed into one page without doing it like he did, though. Nice.
 
CJones said:
Weird. I would have expected a URL like 'spaghettimodels.com' to go to something COMPLETELY different.

That's an interesting site. Lots of stuff consolidated in one place. The layout reminds me of some of the first websites I built when I first learned the 'magic' of HTML tables and background colors. Not sure how you could get that much content condensed into one page without doing it like he did, though. Nice.
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That website is like having 50 pop-up ads in your face at one time, lol.
 
douglas393 said:
Did not have a plane during Charley started flying a few years later, but the airport, KPGD, sustained quite a bit of damage . My I n structural lost her 210, though a few of my friends sustained little or no damage. Some of the hangars from what I understand were damaged but most did well. For the other storms I had my plane in a hangar and no damage. The airport w a s c l owed for about a month after Ian but remained open after the o t her storms. Do not know how long it was closed after Charley. I am sure some moved their planes but do not know anyone who did. As for insurance as far as I know I am covered and have not had any issues getting insurance and the price seems in line with others not in hurricane alley
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I think I read somewhere in my insurance policy that relocation of aircraft to non hurricane area was covered (the cost, think it was limited to $500), is this a requirement or an option? Have anyone else heard about this?
 
mandm said:
I think I read somewhere in my insurance policy that relocation of aircraft to non hurricane area was covered (the cost, think it was limited to $500), is this a requirement or an option? Have anyone else heard about this?
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Usually an option, and a risky one as the storm’s predicted path is pretty unpredictable. Unless you travel hundred of miles, you’re as likely to duck into it as escape it.
 
Half Fast said:
Usually an option, and a risky one as the storm’s predicted path is pretty unpredictable. Unless you travel hundred of miles, you’re as likely to duck into it as escape it.
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Not sure I most would agree but would rather have my plane in a hangar going through a major hurricane (especially one that has weathered a number of hurricanes ) than tied down outside on a tarmac which may end up in the storms path(even if the storm has deintensified).
 
Half Fast said:
Usually an option, and a risky one as the storm’s predicted path is pretty unpredictable. Unless you travel hundred of miles, you’re as likely to duck into it as escape it.
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I did this when a Cat 5 threatened Florida, I flew to Pennsylvania to visit family. The storm ended up staying offshore, the insurance (Global) paid $500 but I think they stopped doing that now.
Took me less than 8 hours, my neighbor drove to Tennessee, took him 21 hours. When evacuating the roads become congested with traffic, being able to flyover it all is fantastic. So if it’s bad enough that you need to evacuate…I’d fly, even if the insurance didn’t cover the costs.
 
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douglas393 said:
Not sure I most would agree but would rather have my plane in a hangar going through a major hurricane (especially one that has weathered a number of hurricanes ) than tied down outside on a tarmac which may end up in the storms path(even if the storm has deintensified).
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sometimes being in the hangar isn't the best solution. A friend was allowed to tuck his cherokee in a hangar in advance of a hurricane. The aircraft outside didn't suffer any damage. However, one section of the hangar wall blew open and debris damaged his cherokee... to the tune of several thousand dollars (back when that was real money)
 
Half Fast said:
Usually an option, and a risky one as the storm’s predicted path is pretty unpredictable. Unless you travel hundred of miles, you’re as likely to duck into it as escape it.
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If you're near the coast, moving a hundred miles inland can make a big difference.
 
Dana said:
If you're near the coast, moving a hundred miles inland can make a big difference.
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Here in Florida, moving a hundred miles away from one coast just puts you a hundred miles closer to the other coast.
 
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