Return of Investment in Oil Analysis

[JohnAJohnson]

Good question, and I think the answer is maybe. If you run a plane without an engine monitor and don't do SOAPs, and get 2000-3000 out of it before overhaul, then the SOAP was certainly not worth the $1800 - $3600 it cost during the life of the engine, and the engine monitor would have obviously been a waste of money too.

But I do SOAPs every oil change, and I review my engine monitor data often. And I borescope the cylinders and valves, check the compression, and in addition to changing the filter, I also check the suction screen.

I do this not for the ROI, but to do everything I can to foresee an engine problem that could result in an in-flight engine problem. So in this case, you really hope you don't have a return on investment.

 

[denverpilot]

OK but you were the one who brought up cumulative cost. I simply provided an example to show that the cost was IMO, negligible over time in context to the overall cost of ownership. I also stated that value was what was important. Again IMO oil analysis is kind of like insurance in that if you never have to use you'll never see any kind of tangible return

No, the OP did. I've only been reiterating his or her original question as misunderstood by most of the responders.

Let's say you change oil every 50 hours and you have a 2000 hour TBO engine and it makes it to at least that mythical number without problems.

You've spent $2800 on oil analysis.

If it wasn't the oil analysis that lead to the ultimate decision to tear down and/or overhaul, the OP is asking if the marginal cost of spending $2800 was worth it.

What's really needed to decide that are two pieces of data:

- What is the average time at which the majority of engines get overhauled?

- What is the average trigger that is the thing that triggers the decision to overhaul. Was oil analysis involved, or the only thing that said it was time?

Additionally to measure your "value" question (which is not exactly the question asked by the OP), we also need a number for times an oil analysis has been the trigger with no other triggers, especially on a "young" engine.

No argument here that $2800 is nothing in the grand scheme of ownership, but that wasn't the OPs question. If every penny counts, the question was a reasonable one. Especially on smaller simpler engines where $2800 is 1/10 of the entire overhaul price of the engine. On a larger more expensive to overhaul engine, the number starts to fade into the noise of the normal operating costs.

That leads naturally to the question: Is there an engine prove point at which oil analysis is simply throwing away a chunk of the inevitable overhaul dollars? It also asks the question, is oil analysis more useful later on the lifespan of the engine than early?

Practical question then becomes: Oil analysis over the lifespan of an O-200? O-470? IO-550? New or old?

Again I'm not arguing that it should be any particular way. I'm highlighting what the OP was headed toward with the original question.

I disagree about the shoulder harness analogy if the majority of tear downs or overhauls don't start from only oil analysis, from a purely logical perspective. It really depends on whether or not oil analysis has proven to be a lifesaving product.

Keep in mind that timeline wise, the vast majority of aircraft I flew when I started flying had no oil analysis and now most do. There's enough data now, somewhere, to look at the marginal return from oil analysis and whether the opportunity costs paid, are "worth it" with hard numbers.

That many of us will pay money for emotional comfort, isn't what the OP was asking.

 

[fiveoboy01]

I think it's up to the owner to decide if analysis is a good ROI. Is there any real data(IE the two pieces you cited) out there to confirm or deny that it is or isn't? I don't know for sure, but I suspect not enough. The OP's question might not have a solid answer.

I do it, as part of a way to monitor my engine. I think the cost is worth it. Some might not agree. No problem

ROI and aircraft do not belong in the same paragraph anyways.

 

[gov98]

No, the OP did. I've only been reiterating his or her original question as misunderstood by most of the responders.

Let's say you change oil every 50 hours and you have a 2000 hour TBO engine and it makes it to at least that mythical number without problems.

You've spent $2800 on oil analysis.

If it wasn't the oil analysis that lead to the ultimate decision to tear down and/or overhaul, the OP is asking if the marginal cost of spending $2800 was worth it.

What's really needed to decide that are two pieces of data:

- What is the average time at which the majority of engines get overhauled?

- What is the average trigger that is the thing that triggers the decision to overhaul. Was oil analysis involved, or the only thing that said it was time?

Additionally to measure your "value" question (which is not exactly the question asked by the OP), we also need a number for times an oil analysis has been the trigger with no other triggers, especially on a "young" engine.

No argument here that $2800 is nothing in the grand scheme of ownership, but that wasn't the OPs question. If every penny counts, the question was a reasonable one. Especially on smaller simpler engines where $2800 is 1/10 of the entire overhaul price of the engine. On a larger more expensive to overhaul engine, the number starts to fade into the noise of the normal operating costs.

That leads naturally to the question: Is there an engine prove point at which oil analysis is simply throwing away a chunk of the inevitable overhaul dollars? It also asks the question, is oil analysis more useful later on the lifespan of the engine than early?

Practical question then becomes: Oil analysis over the lifespan of an O-200? O-470? IO-550? New or old?

Again I'm not arguing that it should be any particular way. I'm highlighting what the OP was headed toward with the original question.

I disagree about the shoulder harness analogy if the majority of tear downs or overhauls don't start from only oil analysis, from a purely logical perspective. It really depends on whether or not oil analysis has proven to be a lifesaving product.

Keep in mind that timeline wise, the vast majority of aircraft I flew when I started flying had no oil analysis and now most do. There's enough data now, somewhere, to look at the marginal return from oil analysis and whether the opportunity costs paid, are "worth it" with hard numbers.

That many of us will pay money for emotional comfort, isn't what the OP was asking.

Maybe my math is bad... But 2000 hrs /50 hrs/ oil change = 40 oil changes... $20/ analysis * 40 oil changes equals $800...if we want to get really crazy we would need to discount the $800 by the time value of money but let's not get that crazy...

The whole ROI question is a question of does the information in the oil analysis allow you to save (or make money) by the information your $800 has bought. This requires a lot of assumptions... But assume that in the absence of oil analysis information you would always overhaul at TBO...if oil analysis/trend information cause the purchaser to go 40 hrs beyond TBO where they otherwise would not have at a $20/engine hour reserve the purchaser has "made back their investment." If the purchaser would not overhaul the engine until there is visible metal in the filter regardless of oil analysis than one can not have a return on their investment UNLESS the purchaser of the analysis has say for example a 1400 hr engine they bought when it had 800 hours on it over the last 600 hrs they have gotten 12 oil analyses showing a stable rate of items in the engine then you have occasional high silicon (changed air filter) brought number back down... Then they sell plane... They list plane at 50k... 5 purchasers come to see plane. As they work out a deal they get 4 offers... 45k 45 45 43.... The owner however says you're low balling me I have 12 oil analyses showing engine health see attached At least one reviews analyses and says alright I'll pay 48k... Then the $240 in analyses returned $3000. Well worth its value...

Again depends on the variables. Me I think it's worth the money mainly for that last reason.

 

[denverpilot]

ROI and aircraft do not belong in the same paragraph anyways.

Hmm. I suspect various flight clubs, FBOs, and airlines would disagree, as well as many private owners.

It'd be interesting to know how many aircraft on leaseback at the typical rental place are using oil analysis. Or various other commercial operations.

Anecdotally, I don't believe the largest single engine Cessna fleet in the world (CAP) is typically using it, but they do have specifics on mandatory overhauls and hours of service at which they sell off the aircraft, no matter what, unless a lengthy approval process is followed to keep them on the line.

Of course, many of those aircraft are flown daily or nearly so in the worst case, and more than once a day in many cases.

 

[Tom-D]

Maybe my math is bad... But 2000 hrs /50 hrs/ oil change = 40 oil changes... $20/ analysis * 40 oil changes equals $800...if we want to get really crazy we would need to discount the $800 by the time value of money but let's not get that crazy...

The whole ROI question is a question of does the information in the oil analysis allow you to save (or make money) by the information your $800 has bought. This requires a lot of assumptions... But assume that in the absence of oil analysis information you would always overhaul at TBO...if oil analysis/trend information cause the purchaser to go 40 hrs beyond TBO where they otherwise would not have at a $20/engine hour reserve the purchaser has "made back their investment." If the purchaser would not overhaul the engine until there is visible metal in the filter regardless of oil analysis than one can not have a return on their investment UNLESS the purchaser of the analysis has say for example a 1400 hr engine they bought when it had 800 hours on it over the last 600 hrs they have gotten 12 oil analyses showing a stable rate of items in the engine then you have occasional high silicon (changed air filter) brought number back down... Then they sell plane... They list plane at 50k... 5 purchasers come to see plane. As they work out a deal they get 4 offers... 45k 45 45 43.... The owner however says you're low balling me I have 12 oil analyses showing engine health see attached At least one reviews analyses and says alright I'll pay 48k... Then the $240 in analyses returned $3000. Well worth its value...

Again depends on the variables. Me I think it's worth the money mainly for that last reason.

Smart owners change oil and filter at shorter intervals

 

[denverpilot]

Maybe my math is bad... But 2000 hrs /50 hrs/ oil change = 40 oil changes... $20/ analysis * 40 oil changes equals $800...if we want to get really crazy we would need to discount the $800 by the time value of money but let's not get that crazy...

Good catch. I wasn't paying attention. Football was on. Haha.

Smart owners change oil and filter at shorter intervals

Of course they do.

That's why I used the 50 number, because it would raise eyebrows and someone would say that and re-do the numbers for 25 hours which doubles the price of that analysis over time.

So we're at $1600. Now only about 1/20th of an O-200.

(I'm waiting to see if someone says my O-200 number is low or high too. Grin...)

 

[fiveoboy01]

Hmm. I suspect various flight clubs, FBOs, and airlines would disagree, as well as many private owners.

I figured for the purpose of our discussion we mainly are speaking of owners or partner aircraft with 2-3 partners. FBOs are a different animal, in my experience they keep the flight school airplane airworthy and that's it. Clubs may or may not be in the business of making money, and airlines don't really have a place in the scope of this particular discussion.

FWIW, I do change my oil at 25 hour intervals. The oil holds contaminants and breaks down over time and I'm of the opinion that 25 hour oil protects better than 50 hour oil. I'm not entirely sure if it's really necessary especially since I use a semi synthetic oil, but I do it anyways. Oil is cheap. I figure it costs me roughly $100 per oil change, that's $4 per tach hour. Negligible.

 

[Jaybird180]

I figured for the purpose of our discussion we mainly are speaking of owners or partner aircraft with 2-3 partners. FBOs are a different animal, in my experience they keep the flight school airplane airworthy and that's it. Clubs may or may not be in the business of making money, and airlines don't really have a place in the scope of this particular discussion.

FWIW, I do change my oil at 25 hour intervals. The oil holds contaminants and breaks down over time and I'm of the opinion that 25 hour oil protects better than 50 hour oil. I'm not entirely sure if it's really necessary especially since I use a semi synthetic oil, but I do it anyways. Oil is cheap. I figure it costs me roughly $100 per oil change, that's $4 per tach hour. Negligible.

Just so that you're aware: oil makers have an expectation that the oil will be in a statistical sweet spot of use and at that sweet spot the pH is Goldilocks "just right" for the engine. IIRC bobistheoilguy.com talks about this.