request input for flight this weekend

[Monpilot]

i'm planning to fly from Houston to Alpine, TX (just southeast of El Paso) today and fly back Sunday...

VFR

flying there is no problem. flying back sunday, however, looks like it may be iffy due to cloud cover...

unfortunately, i'm on an iPhone so the forecast cloud cover maps aren't showing up well... I wont' have access to a real computer until past the time I can cancel my rental car and hotel for tonight...

so i'm asking for added input from the forum

on the iPhone the forecast cloud cover for 1pm sunday and 7pm sunday evening show a route I can take that is light gray instead of dark gray.....

I assume this means some clouds but that it will still be VFR...

what's your input?

if I can't fly i'll drive 16 hours (vs 8) roundtrip.. but i'd like to save on the rental car and the hotel I had planned for tonight since i'll be driving most of the night...

thanks!

 

[CJones]

I wouldn't trust a cloud cover map - especially a FORECAST cloud cover map - for much more than "should I have my sunglasses accessible or not".

This far out, your best bet will be to look at Prog Charts and even then, this far out they can shift drastically.

 

[poadeleted20]

Try looking at the MAV MOS ceiling height and visibility charts which suggest IFR conditions through most of Texas on Sunday at 18Z. This site gives your best predictions of ceiling and visibility beyond the 12 hour range of the Area Forecast ceiling/visibility section and the 24-30 hour range of TAF's. Surface prog charts don't give ceiling/visibility, and the SigWx charts (which show IFR and MVFR areas but not specific ceiling/vis) don't go past about 24 hours ahead.

Happy motoring.

 

[Monpilot]

from the looks of it i'll be doing a lot of driving

serves me right for not finishing my ifr ticket...

 

[Monpilot]

actually.. the probability of visibility less than 3 miles is pretty low in the morning.. so if I cut the trip short sunday morning, I should be ok.

 

[Davecat]

I am jealous! We drive out to Alpine 7-8 times a year. Just the reason I have been working on my PPL. Approach into E38 is awesome.

 

[poadeleted20]

actually.. the probability of visibility less than 3 miles is pretty low in the morning.. so if I cut the trip short sunday morning, I should be ok.

Did you look at the forecast ceilings for Sunday? Even if the vis improves, HOU ceilings look like 500 or less all day.

 

[petrolero]

Try looking at the MAV MOS ceiling height and visibility charts which suggest IFR conditions through most of Texas on Sunday at 18Z. This site gives your best predictions of ceiling and visibility beyond the 12 hour range of the Area Forecast ceiling/visibility section and the 24-30 hour range of TAF's. Surface prog charts don't give ceiling/visibility, and the SigWx charts (which show IFR and MVFR areas but not specific ceiling/vis) don't go past about 24 hours ahead.

Happy motoring.

I like that tool because it's probabilistic and pretty specific. It looks out about 3.5 days which is great given that level of specificity. That includes Sunday for the OP so he should be all set.

But just for general reference, one I have been using, and still like, for outlook/planning purposes, is the NOAA Graphical WX Forecast...

http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conusWeek.php#tabs

It provides a lot of the same information as the MOS and goes out a week, which is nice to get a rough sense of whether I will be buying airline tix or avgas next weekend.


.

 

[Van Johnston]

Alpine, TX (just southeast of El Paso)

Just 163 nm SE. Further than JFK-BOS!

 

[oilburner]

Go Saturday. Not Sunday.