Request for Crusty IMCers and CFIIs

[spiderweb]

If you feel you have the time for this, please take a look for me to see if you think my weekend trip is feasable. I would leave Saturday and return Sunday.

Equipment: an NA C182S, /G, no weather, non-KI. We will be 400 lbs UNDERgross. We will be departing KFDK at about 1200 local, basically flying EMI LRP LVZ LHY CTR to 0B5. The only approach there is a VOR-A with 1200 AGL and 1.5 for Cat B. Closest ILS is (I think) Northhampton. Return will be Sunday at most favorable time, but I have the plane until Monday AM should the weather be bad on Sunday.

Pilot: Me, a 400-hour private with 25 hours of actual, 60 hours of instrument, and about 150 hours of X-C time in all seasons. I have recency and consider myself proficient, having just got the rating in July. I am comfortable with partial panel, although I am very happy that this airplane has dual vacs. I have about 35 hours in the C182S and feel comfortable in it. I have very little experience with icing, reasonable amount of experience with bumpy, rainy clouds, and feel OK to do that. I am conservative, and the thing that most likely would make me decide no-go is icing.

Your opinions for this weekend are welcome. Thank you!

 

[grattonja]

If you feel you have the time for this, please take a look for me tomorrow to see if you think my weekend trip is feasable.



I am not as crusty as you are looking for. And it is too early to tell yet. But you are flying over some of the IFR stomping ground for my flights from S37 to RUT, so I have a bit of experience. Scranton/Lake Henry does put you up more towards the mountains.

I ran pireps last 4 hours. Right now, someone has very recently reported light rime ice near SYR VOR at 6000 feet. That is a bad start. Then I look at temps aloft. ALB has the temp well below freezing at 6000.

Hopefully others will give you more experienced analysis than I. But... Were I going today in a 'hawk that I rent, I would not want to be up at 5 or 6 thousand feet, in a cloud. I can't tell really well where the cloud tops are. Maybe if I could confirm that I would be above it at 6k or so...

YMMV.

Jim G

 

[deafsound]

There's no ILS at Northhampton. The nearest one is at Barnes KBAF.
It looks like the weather up this way is gonna be pretty nice, FWIW.
EDIT: at least friday will be nice.

 

[wsuffa]

Ben,

depends on the altitude.

Based on the data I see, looks like the freezing level will be at or below 9000 on the north side of Pennsylvania/south side of New York. North of there it gets lower.

The weather also appears to be calling for precip from your departure location to roughly the area where the freezing line is at 9000. Surface temps across parts of Pennsylvania in the 40s.

That tells me there's a pretty fair chance of icing. And, if you look at the progs, you'll see that the area is in the NE quadrant around a knuckle. That's usually the worst area.

So the million dollar question is 'how high are the tops?'

The icing prediction chart doesn't go out that far in the future, but if you project backward from where the weather tomorrow is supposed to be, you'll see a reasonable chance of icing above 9000. Given the weather movement, I think it likely that you'll see ice above the freezing level, at least until you get well into New York.

This is one of those trips where if I were planning it, I might look at getting out about 6 hours earlier... and staying as far to the east as ATC will let you so I could stay down lower... at least until I got up to New York. Or I'd look at the weather a bit closer to departure and see if it were possible to get on top. I suspect, at this time of year, that you're not likely to get on top.

I think you'd be OK on the arrival itself... I'd be figuring that the ILS won't be necessary.

Sunday is looking to be pretty ugly up north. At this stage, I'd be looking at a probable Monday return. Going into to Tuesday if necessary. The big "what if" on the return is the track of Wilma. If is crosses Florida and goes up the East Coast, it will influence the movement of the weather fronts that are generating the rain. It could well delay the rain in New England for longer.

My opinion....

 

[Paul Allen]

Ben,
I have been reading your posts the couple of years. My opinion is that you are more than capable of making the right decisions. I would fly with you anytime. I like your post, I think in the future I will get some opinions from other pilots on X/C's.
I look at the weather daily and I'm starting to see more and more icing. I know we expect that in the NE this time of year. Icing and Wilma would be my main concerns.

 

[gismo]

FWIW, it was above 0 C (barely) at 9000 MSL flying into northern Michigan today around noon. Given the winds aloft I suspect that you will have the same tomorrow where you are. Looking at the icing forecast, winds aloft forecast and the CIP I don't see much likelihood of an icing problem at or below 9000 MSL. This kind of data is rather volatile so it's a bit hard to say for sure right now. Check the CIP and icing forecast tomorrow morning. You won't be likely to find any pireps that early, but the rest ought to be pretty accurate by then. Once airborne you can check with EFAS every 1/2 hour or so about icing pireps and cloud tops/bases along your route.

 

[gismo]

Ben,

depends on the altitude.

Based on the data I see, looks like the freezing level will be at or below 9000 on the north side of Pennsylvania/south side of New York. North of there it gets lower.

The weather also appears to be calling for precip from your departure location to roughly the area where the freezing line is at 9000. Surface temps across parts of Pennsylvania in the 40s.

That tells me there's a pretty fair chance of icing. And, if you look at the progs, you'll see that the area is in the NE quadrant around a knuckle. That's usually the worst area.

So the million dollar question is 'how high are the tops?'

Or... "can you stay below the freezing level?" I think the answer to that is yes. Another positive factor is that it looks like you would be well above freezing at lower plausible altitudes so worst case would be a retreat or descent to escape ice. I'd sure go for it if I were you, Ben, as long as your return date is flexible.

 

[John J]

Ben;

I really enjoy your questions and posts. I have been looking every day at the weather and what is so difficult with the weather now is that it will keep changing so fast. Looking ahead for tomorrow and beyond it really is a "hit or miss" on the forecast. Having flown this route for a long time I use to check weather every hour beginning 12 hours ahead of time. I use to look at surface obs. and PIREPS all the time. Also look at the temp/dewpoint spreads if you can get them. They tell you how dry the air is and some times the cooler dry air will lift the ceilings for you.

For the ILS Barns is the closest as David mentioned or go to BDL for they have everthing there.

Let us know what and how your flight goes.

Have a nice flight and what great experience for you

John

 

[wsuffa]

Or... "can you stay below the freezing level?" I think the answer to that is yes. Another positive factor is that it looks like you would be well above freezing at lower plausible altitudes so worst case would be a retreat or descent to escape ice. I'd sure go for it if I were you, Ben, as long as your return date is flexible.

Yeah, I probably would, too, depending on the flexibility.

But I'd also reserve the right to cancel in the AM if conditions appear unacceptable.

Most of that route is over the coastal plain, but if NY approach sends him up way west, you start getting over the Poconos and the number of options decrease. Hence, I'd make the final call in the AM.

 

[spiderweb]

Thanks guys. Well, I'll take another look tomorrow! I think if I can get higher cloud bases (around 2,000 AGL) and a high-ish freezing level, I'll go for it.

 

[Dave Krall CFII]

Don't go.
Save yourself while you still can.
If you must go, then allow a week or two for the flights so that should you get through all that WX slop, you could actually arrive early...

 

[Ed Guthrie]

If you feel comfortable with the IMC flying (pilot duties, not weather) between FDK and the NY/PA state line, go and have fun. Icing isn't an issue today.

BTW, regarding someone suggesting the east side of NY as any kind of possibility, unless the ATC world took a decided tilt in the past 6 months, between FDK and the Boston area you will be given the west side of NY airspace (well west--I call it the Toronto routing). You can beg for the east side. You can claim mountains, icing, too many clouds, lower MEA, whatever, but in the end all pleading will fall on deaf ears and you will fly the route over LHY.

 

[grattonja]

If you feel comfortable with the IMC flying (pilot duties, not weather) between FDK and the NY/PA state line, go and have fun. Icing isn't an issue today.

BTW, regarding someone suggesting the east side of NY as any kind of possibility, unless the ATC world took a decided tilt in the past 6 months, between FDK and the Boston area you will be given the west side of NY airspace (well west--I call it the Toronto routing). You can beg for the east side. You can claim mountains, icing, too many clouds, lower MEA, whatever, but in the end all pleading will fall on deaf ears and you will fly the route over LHY.

I agree with Ed. LHY routing is my experience, albeit limited. EVERY trip out of RUT that isn't VFR goes to Delancy and Lake Henry, then down towards AVP, then points south. Nothing up there but you either. And nothing below you very promising until you get close to AVP. Not many outs if the wings start growing forward, you know?

Jim G

 

[wsuffa]

If you feel comfortable with the IMC flying (pilot duties, not weather) between FDK and the NY/PA state line, go and have fun. Icing isn't an issue today.

BTW, regarding someone suggesting the east side of NY as any kind of possibility, unless the ATC world took a decided tilt in the past 6 months, between FDK and the Boston area you will be given the west side of NY airspace (well west--I call it the Toronto routing). You can beg for the east side. You can claim mountains, icing, too many clouds, lower MEA, whatever, but in the end all pleading will fall on deaf ears and you will fly the route over LHY.

Actually, I didn't say "east of New York", I said "as far east as ATC will let you". That may be -zero- distance east, but if I were icing, I would sure as *f* ask.

Ben, doesn't look like icing will be an issue below 12K today... were it me in your place, I'd go.

Have a good flight.

 

[spiderweb]

If you feel comfortable with the IMC flying (pilot duties, not weather) between FDK and the NY/PA state line, go and have fun. Icing isn't an issue today.

BTW, regarding someone suggesting the east side of NY as any kind of possibility, unless the ATC world took a decided tilt in the past 6 months, between FDK and the Boston area you will be given the west side of NY airspace (well west--I call it the Toronto routing). You can beg for the east side. You can claim mountains, icing, too many clouds, lower MEA, whatever, but in the end all pleading will fall on deaf ears and you will fly the route over LHY.

Thanks, Ed. I am planning on tomorrow to go and Sunday to return. What do you think? Freezing levels too low?

 

[spiderweb]

Actually, I didn't say "east of New York", I said "as far east as ATC will let you". That may be -zero- distance east, but if I were icing, I would sure as *f* ask.

Ben, doesn't look like icing will be an issue below 12K today... were it me in your place, I'd go.

Have a good flight.

Thanks, Bill! am planning on tomorrow and Sunday, though. What do you think? I wonder about the rain and freezing level. I probably can't top the clouds.

 

[wsuffa]

Thanks, Bill! am planning on tomorrow and Sunday, though. What do you think? I wonder about the rain and freezing level. I probably can't top the clouds.

Different Kettle 'o fish.

You will be in the moisture-laden quadrant of the knuckle.

The info on ADDS still looks like temps will be OK below 10-12K, at least through Pennsylvania - if not the whole trip. You'll probably be in rain and IMC most of the way.

You do know about this.... ?

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/icing/

 

[Ed Guthrie]

Thanks, Ed. I am planning on tomorrow to go and Sunday to return. What do you think? Freezing levels too low?

Apoligies. You stated Saturday very clearly and I somehow read "Friday". Go figure. If I get a chance tomorrow morning I'll look at the weather again. Right now I don't see icing being a problem but when planning winter flights I prefer very current forecast.

 

[ggroves]

Not sure how crusty I am but..

Make full use of ADDS and the icing products. I didn't fully check out your route and look at the MEAs, but today, below 9,000, you'd be OK.

I'm blasting off tomorrow @ 9:00 AM to head to KPNE to do the Buck's County thing with the little woman, so I'll make sure to give a PIREP. I'm planning 7,000.

One thing to remember is the importance of being prepared to get back into your originating airport in the event of an emergency after liftoff. KIAD and KBWI are forecasting 400/1 and 500/2 respectively up to noon tomorrow. Make sure you have FDK's ILS tuned and the plate ready to shoot an approach down to mins if you need to get right back. This is easy to forget when you get focused on getting to that first outbound navaid and your destination.

Enjoy!

Greg
CFII

 

[spiderweb]

Different Kettle 'o fish.

You will be in the moisture-laden quadrant of the knuckle.

The info on ADDS still looks like temps will be OK below 10-12K, at least through Pennsylvania - if not the whole trip. You'll probably be in rain and IMC most of the way.

You do know about this.... ?

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/icing/

Thanks. Yep--I do know about that. I am a bit confused, though, because the advisories are high enough, but it looks like the freezing level will be lower. Maybe at that level there isn't enough moisture in the clouds to warrant an advisory?

 

[spiderweb]

Apoligies. You stated Saturday very clearly and I somehow read "Friday". Go figure. If I get a chance tomorrow morning I'll look at the weather again. Right now I don't see icing being a problem but when planning winter flights I prefer very current forecast.

Thanks, Ed.

 

[spiderweb]

Not sure how crusty I am but..

Make full use of ADDS and the icing products. I didn't fully check out your route and look at the MEAs, but today, below 9,000, you'd be OK.

I'm blasting off tomorrow @ 9:00 AM to head to KPNE to do the Buck's County thing with the little woman, so I'll make sure to give a PIREP. I'm planning 7,000.

One thing to remember is the importance of being prepared to get back into your originating airport in the event of an emergency after liftoff. KIAD and KBWI are forecasting 400/1 and 500/2 respectively up to noon tomorrow. Make sure you have FDK's ILS tuned and the plate ready to shoot an approach down to mins if you need to get right back. This is easy to forget when you get focused on getting to that first outbound navaid and your destination.

Enjoy!

Greg
CFII

Thanks, Greg. Yes, my CFII pounded that into me during training. For the sake of preparedness, we briefed engine failure at 500 and 1000 feet, and above that, an immediate need to return and shoot an approach. We did also practce all of this, too.

 

[wsuffa]

Thanks. Yep--I do know about that. I am a bit confused, though, because the advisories are high enough, but it looks like the freezing level will be lower. Maybe at that level there isn't enough moisture in the clouds to warrant an advisory?

Not sure what you mean.

I compared the icing prediction for 0900 to the temp prediction for 0900, both at 9000', and it looks like the icing potential is predicted to occur along the -0- degree line at 9K. That's the result I'd expect.

I'm using the temp prediction from the winds aloft page.

The current icing advisory is 12,000 and up. Again that's what I'd expect.

On that side of the knuckle, I'd expect a lot of moisture in the clouds.

 

[spiderweb]

Not sure what you mean.

I compared the icing prediction for 0900 to the temp prediction for 0900, both at 9000', and it looks like the icing potential is predicted to occur along the -0- degree line at 9K. That's the result I'd expect.

I'm using the temp prediction from the winds aloft page.

The current icing advisory is 12,000 and up. Again that's what I'd expect.

On that side of the knuckle, I'd expect a lot of moisture in the clouds.

Now, the moisture in and of itself shouldn't be a problem unless it was hard rain, right? I've flown in hard rain, and mainly it was just noisy. I haven't seen anything indicating I'd get much turbulence.

 

[wsuffa]

Now, the moisture in and of itself shouldn't be a problem unless it was hard rain, right? I've flown in hard rain, and mainly it was just noisy. I haven't seen anything indicating I'd get much turbulence.

If it's cold enough, the moisture in clouds can cause rime icing. I've seen it even in the summer time entering a cloud at FL190 - when OAT was below freezing. For regular flying (other than potential icing concerns), nope, shouldn't be an issue. Hard rain generally causes a lot of noise and beats the paint job (especially on the prop).

You'll probably get bumps in the clouds, but I don't see anything to indicate convective.

 

[Ed Guthrie]

Ben, I know you decided not to go and I would never second guess a decision. You made the right decision for you.

That said, if you want to know what the crusty IMCer & CFI-IA thinks of today--it would be a safe flight. Icing wouldn't be a problem today at 7000'; file the route at 7000' and enjoy the sound of rain hammering off the paint. You'd need to leave as early as possible to avoid lowering ceilings in the MA area this afternoon, but you'd make the approaoch into 0B5 so long as you don't dawdle too late into the afternoon. Watch the later METARs and the icing pireps to confirm that prediction.

Regarding coming home tomorrow? You originally said that the return could delay as late as Monday morning. Looking at the forecasts I believe you will find a large window tomorrow afternoon/evening or Monday morning that will be equally possible. We'll see tomorrow if that prediction comes true.

 

[spiderweb]

I agree, Ed. I think the deciding factor was that I didn't have the airplane until 12:00 noon which would put me in Massachusetts late enough that I probably wouldn't have been able to shoot that approach. But I really appreciate getting your and others' input. That is why I frequent this board so often.

Thanks!

 

[Ed Guthrie]

I agree, Ed. I think the deciding factor was that I didn't have the airplane until 12:00 noon which would put me in Massachusetts late enough that I probably wouldn't have been able to shoot that approach. But I really appreciate getting your and others' input. That is why I frequent this board so often.

Thanks!

I don't think the rush was all that great, just not something you wanted to push by stopping for a noon-thirty lunch before departing. The 18Z METARs were pretty good, the 19Z METARs aren't much worse, but in planning the flight I wouldn't have wanted to wait around for the 20Z weather.

 

[spiderweb]

I am really glad that I made this particular post because I have learned a lot. Ed, I agree with that assessment completely. This is really going to help me this winter, I can see.