Quick weather question

jasc15

jasc15

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Joe
It's quite gusty in northern NJ today. I work a stone's throw from KTEB, and the METAR naturally indicates this. However, when I decided to check the prog chart to see what it looked like, I didnt see anything that would suggest high winds in the area. The pressure gradient looks fairly typical. Am I missing something?
 

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The Winds/Temps surface chart on ADDS shows a gradient toward a pretty large low situated well out in the Atlantic (or maybe around Newfoundland). The 3000 feet graphic tells the story: the winds up there are 30-40 kts steady in your area, with an area of 50+ kts in the area of NH and SE ME. That stuff mixes down to the surface readily during the day, especially offshore where there's little ground friction to interfere. You can see that on the surface W/T chart.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/winds/

It's probably the same system we've had here for the last couple days. I had to lead a hike on Saturday and couldn't fly, and Sunday and Monday were both wicked windy.
 
"Prognostic: Something that foretells." (Webster's Ninth.

Why would you expect current conditions to match up with a forecast?

Bob Gardner
 
jasc15 said:
It's quite gusty in northern NJ today. I work a stone's throw from KTEB, and the METAR naturally indicates this. However, when I decided to check the prog chart to see what it looked like, I didnt see anything that would suggest high winds in the area. The pressure gradient looks fairly typical. Am I missing something?
Click to expand...


Looks to me you have some Isobars that are rather tightly packed. This would mean higher winds.
 
Snaggletooth said:
Looks to me you have some Isobars that are rather tightly packed. This would mean higher winds.
Click to expand...
Maybe just my interpretation, but to me it doesnt seem too dense until you get into new england. I know the gradient indicates relative wind speeds, but that chart alone wouldn't suggest to me that there are atypical wind conditions.
 
jasc15 said:
Maybe just my interpretation, but to me it doesnt seem too dense until you get into new england. I know the gradient indicates relative wind speeds, but that chart alone wouldn't suggest to me that there are atypical wind conditions.
Click to expand...


Why wouldn't close lines 150 miles east affect winds west of those lines?

In fact -- you've found your answer.

:cheerswine:
 
dmccormack said:
Prognostic Charts = hints

TAFS = suggestions

METARS = reports

You standing on ramp = weather
Click to expand...
Exactly. And "gusty", if you mean "variable in velocity", is something you won't really be able to determine from prog charts.
 
from my CFI: TAF = Totally Assinine Forecast

Always got a laugh out of that one.
 
Well, I'd finally convinced the husband to go to Ocracoke. Planned to do a one-nighter, but winds are looking unreasonable for Saturday return, and today looks interesting. Husbands not into rough rides and interesting landings, so I've sent him to the farm. Now I'm just trying to decide whether to do a day trip by myself.....33kt -38kt headwinds on return sounds like a PITA. Decisions, decisions...the winds have really been relentless this winter.
 
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