Piper Plans for the Future?

flyersfan31

flyersfan31

Touchdown! Greaser!
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Freiburgfan31
No, not Nick's dog.

As I was perusing Controller this evening (the printed version) I took a second look at the big 2 page spread Piper ad. You've probably seen it, it's been in virtually every aviation journal. Down the left hand is a series of pix of the aircraft with a one-word ad agency descriptor. Meridian, Mirage, Matrix, Saratoga, 6X, Archer all show up. I'm not surprised they left out Seminole, Warrior, and Arrow.

I was surprised that Seneca didn't make the cut. The more I think about it, the more I think the Seneca's days are numbered. The Matrix does everything the V does, with better load carrying, albeit at only a modest 4-6gph fuel savings. All it lacks is "twin-engine reliability" which is, as we know, an open question. I don't know what the sales numbers are for the Seneca of late, but my money is on them watching sales for the Matrix and chopping the Seneca if the Matrix sells like they hope.

Logical conclusion, really. There is no "step-up" from the Seneca anymore. No Navajo, or Cheyenne. Even the PiperJet is a single, so the Sara/Matrix/Mirage/Meridian upgrade path works just fine. They'll keep the 'Nole and Arrow for training fleets. One wonders if the Warrior is on the way out with the advent of the LSAs.

Anyway that's my guess. Shame, though, especially since the Matrix is bound to be fussier and less-rugged than the Seneca I think it will replace.
 
Not only that, but I could see a time when the Saratoga could go away, too, if the Matrix catches on. And then I could see the Matrix downsized replace the Archer.

Why would Piper do this? To reduce parts count and simplify factory tooling. Starting when the Cherokee was intorduced in the early 60s, the same basic design was made retractable, then stretched, then twinned. This is essentially the same strategy in reverse. Piper is run by investment bankers now. They have made it clear they cannot/will not make parts for legacy Pipers indefinitely. If they chop off the PA-28 and all its derivatives, they simplify things at their end dramatically.

Furthermore, the industry is so stacked against light twins right now ... starting with insurance and going through fuel prices. Richard Collins has an interesting article in Flying this month entitled "What Happened to the Piston Twin" that I find hits the mark.
 
This post got me thinking, so with the help of a friendly insurance broker, I put together some numbers. I would be 0 PIC time in type in each. The ratio of hull value to insurance premium pretty much says it all.

1964 Baron B-55
Hull value: $90K
Initial training: SimCom etc
Checkout: 25 hours
Hull deductible: $5,000 in motion
Annual premium: $6000

1988 Piper Malibu
Hull value: $320K
Initial training: SimCom etc
Checkout: 10 hours
Hull deductible: $1,000 in motion
Annual premium: $5800
 
Wow! That insurance is eye-opening! That certainly won't help the future of light twins. $6k for a 40yr old Baron?

I think you're right about the Saratoga too. I don't know what it offers over the Matrix (other than cost and durability). I bet we'll see the answer within the next 2 yrs.
 
Andrew in my humble opinion Piper doesent care about selling airplanes. I emailed to inquire about a new Archer and Six when I was thinking of forming a club. Told them I was tossing around a 172 and 182 in comparisson. Guess how they responded to me.


Their response was not to respond to me at all.
 
What is it with those clowns?? The Klapmeier brothers have 1/10th the history of Piper yet look what they've done. Cessna, even owned by a behemoth like Textron, does customer service pretty well. I don't hear complaints about Mooney in spite of its ups and downs.

But it'll all change, because they're building a JET!!!:rolleyes:
 
AdamZ said:
Andrew in my humble opinion Piper doesent care about selling airplanes. I emailed to inquire about a new Archer and Six when I was thinking of forming a club. Told them I was tossing around a 172 and 182 in comparisson. Guess how they responded to me.


Their response was not to respond to me at all.
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I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Piper is dead.

Too bad, too, they used to make such great airplanes.
 
i still love my warrior.....i honeslty wouldnt mind a matrix...but I dont know much about too many different airplanes....i just like the design of the Piper line...

Sorry but airplane insurance doesnt seem like that much,f you think about wut they are insuring..I pay as much for my cars as someone would pay for a Baron....and the repairs to the cars are far less expensive then repairs done to an airplane...just how i see it..


Ant
 
SupraPilot said:
Sorry but airplane insurance doesnt seem like that much,f you think about wut they are insuring..I pay as much for my cars as someone would pay for a Baron....
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How many cars do you have or how many accidents have you been in? I have three cars and still don't get close to $2k/year for insurance that is a lot less than the $6k for a Baron. My Warrior is insured for $900/year
 
Pilawt said:
I just happened to look at the Piper website. Now the 6X/6XT is missing from the product lineup.
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Yikes! I noticed the 6XT dissapeared a few months ago, now the 6X, too? Sad. I'm not sure why they'd pull the plug - from the registration records it looks like they were producing about 25/year of each model. It's not every company that has the guts to turn down $20 million/year in sales.

I agree with Kent - the beancounters and the jet development are going to kill them. This is like watching a train wreck in very slow motion.

Regards,
Joe
 
Wow, I hadn't noticed that. A modern, fixed gear 6 seater would be a nice market niche -- a big Cirrus. Maybe they'll weld the gear down on the Matrix and call it the 6xx...;)
 
I know this is an old topic, but to paraphrase Mark Twain, " Reports of the Seneca's demise... are premature". ;)
 
flyingcheesehead said:
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Piper is dead.

Too bad, too, they used to make such great airplanes.
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Well... With new owners and a new CEO, I think things are looking MUCH better for Piper. They've recommitted themselves to PA28 production for now, they're offering Garmin (instead of Avidyne) glass in most of their birds now, they seem to have learned how to market once again... I'd say that if they can get the jet done and start getting those out the door, and then start on a modern replacement for the PA28 that they'll do quite well. It'd be nice if they'd bring back a six-seater below the Matrix level too, Piper has always been a leader in the six-seat market and a new Cherokee Six/Saratoga would be a good thing IMHO.

But the next big thing will have to be something to replace the PA28. If you look at what's available in the four-seat, fixed-gear 180hp single category these days, the Diamond DA40 absolutely kicks the crap out of the Archer. Cessna will always sell 172's to the training market and those who have trained in 172's and want their own, but Piper needs to come up with an entry-level airplane that can match the specs of the DA40. Same HP/fuel burn but 30 knots slower does not make people want to break out the checkbook. :no:
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Well... With new owners and a new CEO, I think things are looking MUCH better for Piper.
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Which is why they're furloughing all their employees for one week out of every month?

Admittedly, having a new set of deep pockets to tap must be helpful. The cynic in me wonders how long it'll take for the new investors to start demanding some kind of return.
 
They're doing a pretty good job of ****ing off their dealers with the new Light Sport thing. That was popped on them by surprise - they found out through the media. These things get shipped from Europe. Apparently Piper plans to have the dealers reassemble them for delivery. Didn't ask the dealers how they felt about that, and didn't mention any compensation for the time for an airframe with a limited profit margin to begin with.

And as far as reports of the Seneca's death being premature, it's one thing to have a photo of a plane in an advertisement. 'Tis another to actually sell them. How many Archers are they going to sell? Would you buy a $300,000 Archer? If you ran a flight school?
 
flyersfan31 said:
And as far as reports of the Seneca's death being premature, it's one thing to have a photo of a plane in an advertisement. 'Tis another to actually sell them. How many Archers are they going to sell? Would you buy a $300,000 Archer? If you ran a flight school?
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No, but I also wouldn't buy anything that Piper or Cessna builds anymore. Mainly because for the price of that $300,000 Archer I can buy... well... any plane I realistically want.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
No, but I also wouldn't buy anything that Piper or Cessna builds anymore. Mainly because for the price of that $300,000 Archer I can buy... well... any plane I realistically want.
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Hmmm.... Anything? Including the Citation series and the 350/400? Admittedly, your needs might be a tad (or a Ted) different from many pilots' needs/desires! :)
 
gprellwitz said:
Hmmm.... Anything? Including the Citation series and the 350/400? Admittedly, your needs might be a tad (or a Ted) different from many pilots' needs/desires! :)
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I don't want a Citation, I don't want a 350/400, I don't want a Malibu (sorry Andrew - I really do like yours), I don't want a Bonanza, I don't want a new G58 Baron. I do not like green eggs and ham, I do not like them Sam I am. ;)

But examples of the planes I do lust after and would actually fly - 340, 421, P-Navajo, Aerostar, Aero Commander - can easily be found for $300,000 or less. When I dream, I tend to do so with practicality in mind. Turbines are off the list for the time being - I just don't have any need for the excessive fuel consumption. :)
 
Ted DuPuis said:
But examples of the planes I do lust after and would actually fly - 340, 421, P-Navajo, Aerostar, Aero Commander - can easily be found for $300,000 or less. When I dream, I tend to do so with practicality in mind. Turbines are off the list for the time being - I just don't have any need for the excessive fuel consumption. :)
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I'd like to see Piper re-introduce the Navajo Chieftain and perhaps make it slightly longer to to match the capacity of the Cessna 404.
 
Capt.Crash'n'Burn said:
I'd like to see Piper re-introduce the Navajo Chieftain and perhaps make it slightly longer to to match the capacity of the Cessna 404.
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They should reintroduce the Aztec. But not the F model, keep it at the E model. And they should make the pressurized variant that never hit production.

Oh, to dream... :)
 
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