NTSB reports: factual vs probable cause?

[lukezimmerman]

There's a particular NTSB report I've been waiting on. The event happened almost 2 years ago. But it wasn't until very recently that the factual report came out, replacing the one paragraph preliminary report. Can I expect a probable cause report to come out next? Or do some investigations never arrive at a probable cause report? There were no witnesses to the event, save the deceased.

 

[N801BH]

There's a particular NTSB report I've been waiting on. The event happened almost 2 years ago. But it wasn't until very recently that the factual report came out, replacing the one paragraph preliminary report. Can I expect a probable cause report to come out next? Or do some investigations never arrive at a probable cause report? There were no witnesses to the event, save the deceased.

Unless it was a scheduled airline flight.... All they release is a Factual report...IIRC...

 

[RotorDude]

There's a particular NTSB report I've been waiting on. The event happened almost 2 years ago. But it wasn't until very recently that the factual report came out, replacing the one paragraph preliminary report. Can I expect a probable cause report to come out next? Or do some investigations never arrive at a probable cause report? There were no witnesses to the event, save the deceased.

From the NTSB's webpage:

Generally, a preliminary report is available online within a few days of an accident. Factual information is added when available, and when the investigation is completed, the preliminary report is replaced with a final description of the accident and its probable cause.

(Bold in the original)

So based on that, I'd say the probable cause should be forthcoming.

 

[wanttaja]

There's a particular NTSB report I've been waiting on. The event happened almost 2 years ago. But it wasn't until very recently that the factual report came out, replacing the one paragraph preliminary report. Can I expect a probable cause report to come out next? Or do some investigations never arrive at a probable cause report? There were no witnesses to the event, save the deceased.

Factual reports seem to precede the Probable Cause by a month or two.

Most accidents have a Probable Cause declared, but sometimes it's "Unknown."

Ron Wanttaja

 

[nauga]

Unless it was a scheduled airline flight.... All they release is a Factual report...IIRC...

YDNRC. They publish probable causes and final reports for (some) GA accidents as well. ISTR you complaining about one in particular.

Nauga,
forensicallly

 

[nauga]

Factual reports seem to precede the Probable Cause by a month or two.

Also worth noting that in many cases there's an accident docket that's got a lot of the detailed results and analysis.

Nauga,
sifting data

 

[wanttaja]

Also worth noting that in many cases there's an accident docket that's got a lot of the detailed results and analysis.

Good point, Nauga. One can search for a given accident using the NTSB number at:

http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/SitePages/dms.aspx

A goodly amount of data gets filed here, including the technical reports and often photos of the crash scene.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[weilke]

Issuing a 'probable cause' requires the board to vote on one. Frequently, what gets released with the 'factual' label precedes the 'probable cause' by a couple of months. Staff has written their report and awaits the board to vote on their proposed probable cause. Most of the time, the board signs off on the proposed PC, sometimes they dont and one or more of the board members wants some aspect further investigated. Each of them has their own pet causes, fatigue, personal electronic devices etc. I dont think there is a fixed time interval between factual and probable cause.