Notable day tomorrow--Financial crisis

Today, my friends, we mark the passing of the capitalistic monetary system and the free market. :(

Oh, I don't know. The gubermint is betting the carrying costs that we must pay to carry the bad debt until it becomes good debt is less than the concequences of the lack of confidence in the markets and potential economic meltdown. Time will tell.

Oh yeah, Arrrr. We should just be stealin the doubloons from China to fund our debt. Arrrr. We Arrrrrrrrrrrrr.


Mateys.
 
President, or precedent? Either could be true here.........

Arrrgghhhh blast them spell checkers. Bleedin' computers, always be a doin' what ye tell 'em to not what ye meant.

He literally said "We will persecute those who manipulate the markets..."

You know, no reason for a Yale grad to know "persecute" vs. "prosecute," but we shouldn't misunderestimate him.
 
Today, my friends, we mark the passing of the capitalistic monetary system and the free market. :(

Oh, I dunno... we always have *some* regulations. And we don't have much of a capitalistic system if no capital is left!

Anyway, don't panic -- attached are some headlines from the Bloomberg terminal being passed around the inter-tubes today... :cheerswine:
 

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Oh, I dunno... we always have *some* regulations. And we don't have much of a capitalistic system if no capital is left!

Anyway, don't panic -- attached are some headlines from the Bloomberg terminal being passed around the inter-tubes today... :cheerswine:

I WANT A PONY!
 
He literally said "We will persecute those who manipulate the markets..."

You know, no reason for a Yale grad to know "persecute" vs. "prosecute," but we shouldn't misunderestimate him.
I heard that this morning as I was driving to my allergy shot appointment. He did say persecute. How many more days do we have to have him in office? Can we ask him to resign early for our own safety and security?
 
I heard that this morning as I was driving to my allergy shot appointment. He did say persecute. How many more days do we have to have him in office? Can we ask him to resign early for our own safety and security?


At least he didn't say they would be prostituted.
 
I was told today that over the objections of the CBO, this financing will be off balance sheet for the gov'ment. That means no reporting to us, no accounting for what's going on. To me, this is the most egregious part of the action taken by gov'ment so far. Yes, it's unprecedented (thanks for catching the typo!).

Best,

Dave
 

I didn't notice at the time he blamed the Fed for not spewing more taxpayer money - lowering interest rates to shaft taxpayers with inflation.
 
Wow! No short selling; money market guarantees and a new RTC where the gov'ment takes the toxic stuff. Just don't know what to think. So, does anyone still think this is a free market?

No doubt something needed to be done. These moves seem to be restoring confidence in the market, but at what cost to taxpayers?
Will this set a president that the public will look to in the future anytime a large financial firm looks as if it might fail?
How will losses be absorbed? How will gov'ment assure managers to a good job of liquidating things with taxpayers at risk behind them.

These actions have directly affected the market; will speculators be willing to take positions that create liquidity in the market when they can be wiped out by gov'ment action?

At this point, I believe there are more questions than answers. I'm sure we'll hear the reasoning over the next few days and get to evaluate it.

Who's manipulating my post? I didn't put the Arrr in here.

Best,

Dave

Today, my friends, we mark the passing of the capitalistic monetary system and the free market. :(

Not a free market at all. It's never been truly free, but it's not been nationalized, either.

The problem I have is that it encourages people to take unwarranted risks. OTOH, there really was no choice - pretty much all capital activity stopped, and without short term lending the system was near collapse. This shows just how much money flows through the global economic system - and what happens if it stops. Beginning of the week, Ford Motor Credit was having to pay 7.5% to borrow - it used to be on the order of Fed Funds rate + a couple of dozen basis points. In fact, Treasuries were selling at NEGATIVE returns over the last few days.
 
:rofl:

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THIS is the real financial crisis mentioned by my neighbor, probably what the feds are trying to stave off:

With the news of the Fannie and Freddie bailout still unfolding, former finance ministers from around the world met last week to discuss global economic stability. Some of them had a polite suggestion for the U.S., namely that a little international advice might have helped stave off the crisis.

The ministers met at the University of Virginia, beneath the grand dome where Thomas Jefferson once kept his library. They were cordial, but also frank. Maybe the U.S. should get a financial checkup, they suggested, from the International Monetary Fund.

...
In practical terms, it's not a big deal. But symbolically, what Sinha is suggesting would carry a lot of weight. Sinha says the U.S. has a history of giving advice to other countries about how to run their economies. It hasn't always been so good about listening. But he thinks it needs to get better.

...
The U.S. Treasury says America has now agreed to get a stability assessment from the IMF. The announcement didn't get much attention, but officials at the IMF expect to start examining U.S. finances in the next couple months.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94617079
Not so much the IMF but if foreign governments decide that the US dollar and debt isn't on good ground and we are really, really doomed.

Imagine Wal-Mart having the HIGHEST prices for all of the that stuff from China,while the few remaining US-made goods are the bargain.
 
Mike

When you said, some time back, that "in September" there was going to be a huge shock to our financial system - do you remember where you read/heard that?
 
Mike

When you said, some time back, that "in September" there was going to be a huge shock to our financial system - do you remember where you read/heard that?

From my neighbor. He imports Jet A(!) from overseas, matching up sellers and buyers :p The people he deals with had a consensus that the bad thing was coming in September, mostly in regards to foreign countries marking the US as a deadbeat and rejecting dollars.

I strongly suspect THAT is what the Friday deal is all about and as it stands the US hasn't done a thing about it except make plans.

OK - the crisis is liquidity. The banks can't value the mortgage packages they're carrying if nobody will buy one.

I also fear the "the treasury will buy troubled loans" deal is not going to turn out as well as the S&L bailout did with real estate. BTW, in that case private buyers made a killing that the US didn't really profit from. Look for that again.

INFLATION IS COMING.
 
Henry Paulson on all the news shows this morning:
"Illiquid market."

"This is not an expenditure that will add to the national debt. We're buying assets that we will sell."

Isn't "illiquid" a way of saying that nobody wants to buy the stuff so nobody knows what's it's worth, if anything?

So now the U.S. treasury is going to come along and say, "How much ya want for it?" Gee, can't see a problem there.

Oh, wait. We'll have experts doing the valuations for the U.S. when the whole liquidity problem is none of the experts know what the stuff is worth. :confused:

This will turn out well. :no:

Doomed, doomed, doomed. :mad:
 
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Henry Paulson on all the news shows this morning:


Isn't "illiquid" a way of saying that nobody wants to buy the stuff so nobody knows what's it's worth, if anything?

So now the U.S. treasury is going to come along and say, "How much ya want for it?" Gee, can't see a problem there.

Oh, wait. We'll have experts doing the valuations for the U.S. when the whole liquidity problem is none of the experts know what the stuff is worth. :confused:

This will turn out well. :no:

Doomed, doomed, doomed. :mad:

We'll see. I'm hoping it goes more along the lines of:

"Here's what we'll give you for it. And if you want it, as a condition of doing business, your senior execs walk with zip, wearing dunce caps, sackcloth and ashes."

But what's really worrisome are all the foreigners holding the same debt.
 
...(The International fund is doing nicely. :rolleyes: Wait for the news how various foreign companies accounting are non-existent. )

Caught Michael Bloomberg on CSPAN basically saying just that. :hairraise:
 
Word from the inside is that when the fed eased credit in June to allow Lehman to borrow- they did. But they did not divest themselves of their mortage derivitives. Instead, they borrowed and bought more securities.

This is one of the reasons I'm told, why Secretary Paulsen said, "no more". We were dealing with pigs.

Just heard. The Lehman execs got $3.7 BILLION in bonuses for last year.

You know, performance-based compensation, the new trend in corpthink after Jack Welch told them to fire 10%.
 
We'll see. I'm hoping it goes more along the lines of:

"Here's what we'll give you for it. And if you want it, as a condition of doing business, your senior execs walk with zip, wearing dunce caps, sackcloth and ashes."

But what's really worrisome are all the foreigners holding the same debt.

+10,000

Ain't gonna happen though.
 
They said the proposed bill said that the Treasury Secretary could do what he thought and there would be no oversight or veto. Paulson is from Goldman Sachs, although by all accounts he's handling this pretty well.
"Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency."
Warm feeling anyone?

We should be very afraid they want to pass this thing by Thursday. Rushing stuff without debate never seems to turn out real well.
 
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Just heard. The Lehman execs got $3.7 BILLION in bonuses for last year.

You know, performance-based compensation, the new trend in corpthink after Jack Welch told them to fire 10%.


This article states $5.7 billion in bonuses including $81 million for the top five guys. Hmmm.... 30,000 employees and $5.7B in bonuses = $190,000 per employee. Now I understand why my brother went into investment banking.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aM8r4dakjoQk&refer=news

Eggman
 
Nomura of Japan to purchase Lehman's Asian operation according to this mornings' WSJ. New name is Nomura-Lehman (pronounced No Mora Lehman--according to Dave <g>).

Best,

Dave
 
Bill,

Remember when you posted this last week?

Interesting comment this morning (that is true).... banks and other institutions are "hoarding cash" and are unwilling to lend. That's compounding the situation.... and is something that Paulison is very concerned about (and we should be, too)

Just seeing some more details regarding that subject today via the NY Post:
By Wednesday, banks sensed a run on their accounts. They started stockpiling cash in anticipation of withdrawals.
Banks, which usually keep an average of $2 billion in excess reserves earmarked for withdrawals, pumped that up to an astounding $90 billion by Wednesday, Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrighton ICAP, told The Journal.
And for good reason. By the close of business on Wednesday, $144.5 billion - a record - had been withdrawn. How much money was taken out of money market funds the prior week? Roughly $7.1 billion, according to AMG Data Services.
Yow!
 
THIS is the real financial crisis mentioned by my neighbor, probably what the feds are trying to stave off:

Not so much the IMF but if foreign governments decide that the US dollar and debt isn't on good ground and we are really, really doomed.
....

Mike

When you said, some time back, that "in September" there was going to be a huge shock to our financial system - do you remember where you read/heard that?

From my neighbor. He imports Jet A(!) from overseas, matching up sellers and buyers :p The people he deals with had a consensus that the bad thing was coming in September, mostly in regards to foreign countries marking the US as a deadbeat and rejecting dollars.
....
So...I walked on over Sunday and asked him, "Are we going to live? What are you hearing?"

He says we're fine. When oil comes down to the magic price of $91 a barrel it'll be fine.

I wonder to myself, how is the price of oil gonna drop when nobody thinks the U.S. dollar is worth anything?


Oil prices shoot up over $25 a barrel as anxiety over US bailout weighs on dollar


NEW YORK (AP) _ Oil prices spiked more than $25 a barrel Monday — the biggest one-day price jump ever — as anxiety over the government's $700 billion bailout plan battered the dollar and touched off frenzied buying of safe-haven investments including crude.

...

Crude has gained about $40 in a dramatic four-day rally that has at least temporarily halted oil's steep two-month slide below $100. At this rate, crude is within striking distance of its all-time record of $147.27, reached in July.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-oil-prices,0,6226038.story

:(
 
This article states $5.7 billion in bonuses including $81 million for the top five guys. Hmmm.... 30,000 employees and $5.7B in bonuses = $190,000 per employee. Now I understand why my brother went into investment banking.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aM8r4dakjoQk&refer=news

Eggman


That absolutly burns me up. I don't care when the bonuses were earned, the company would be under right now, if it wasn't for the US Gov't, so anything you might be due is gone. You still have a job, be happy with that.
 
That absolutly burns me up. I don't care when the bonuses were earned, the company would be under right now, if it wasn't for the US Gov't, so anything you might be due is gone. You still have a job, be happy with that.

Lehman Bros. did go under.

Not that the managers couldn't have walked away with cash.

I have personal knowledge that Enron cut six figure checks as retention bonuses to key employees days before filing for bankruptcy. Wouldn't want to waste the cash left on creditors or stockholders.
 
When do we get to see bankers jumping off of roofs, like they (allegedly) did in '29?

They want all of the bodies of mere mortals who lost their retirement savings to go out first as a cushion. :rolleyes:
 
Not to make light of a very serious situation, but I found this market review... punny:

Helium was up.
Feathers were down.
Paper was stationery.
Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading.
Knives were up sharply.
Cows steered into a bull market.
Pencils lost a few points.
Hiking equipment was trailing.
Elevators rose, while escalators continued their slow decline.
Weights were up in heavy trading.
Light switches were off.
Mining equipment hit rock bottom.
Diapers remained unchanged.
Shipping lines stayed at an even keel.
The market for raisins dried up.
Coca Cola fizzled.
Caterpillar stock inched up a bit.
Sun peaked at midday.
Balloon prices were inflated.
Scott Tissue touched a new bottom.
As the market drained, batteries exploded in an attempt to recharge the market.
 
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I already asked this in a SZ thread, but I thought I'd ask it here too: Has anybody really seen first-hand or heard even second-hand of any real tightness in the credit market? I ask because I haven't heard of anybody having any problems with revolving or commercial loans, and some folks I know in the mortgage biz have indicated that they're not having trouble finding funds. Is it just me, or wouldn't it make sense that if there were such a major squeeze that we'd see issues in those areas? Or are we just not seeing it because we're not to that point yet but could be soon?
 
Is it just me, or wouldn't it make sense that if there were such a major squeeze that we'd see issues in those areas? Or are we just not seeing it because we're not to that point yet but could be soon?

Or, could it just be that the lenders are seeing much fewer loan applications, and that most of those are from better-qualified candidates?
 
I already asked this in a SZ thread, but I thought I'd ask it here too: Has anybody really seen first-hand or heard even second-hand of any real tightness in the credit market? I ask because I haven't heard of anybody having any problems with revolving or commercial loans, and some folks I know in the mortgage biz have indicated that they're not having trouble finding funds. Is it just me, or wouldn't it make sense that if there were such a major squeeze that we'd see issues in those areas? Or are we just not seeing it because we're not to that point yet but could be soon?

Not a sufficient data point, but a client of mine had her credit line, not in default, called. Caveat: she is in the process of winding-up the business, perhaps they began to feel insecure? Did not make a lot of sense to me.
 
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