No significant effect of lockdowns on Covid-19 spread.

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Matthew Rogers said:
Source of the charts with data directly from CDC.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
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Thanks for the link.

So isn't Hong Kong an example of much of what @David Megginson said. Namely "Wealthy islands in ... the Pacific with outstanding political leadership, stringent entry/exit requirements, and no land borders. 2. Authoritarian country that can jail anyone who doesn't follow guidelines. " Admittedly closer to china so not in the middle of the Pacific and only recently becoming much more authoritarian.

I think those kind of differences between those and Western countries are what make such trans-national comparisons difficult in terms of supporting an argument for causation.
 
But they all wore masks right away and prevented millions of infections and continue to have extremely low infection rates (159th on the list of countries for infection per capita). So tell me how do masks not work? Seems to me pretty clear cut that if everyone wore masks right away, all the time, and continued to do so, we would not have many infections.

Edit: referring to the previous post where Hong Kong residents were at 99% mask compliance by 3 weeks into the January 2020 pandemic and the country provides every resident with free masks so that they all wear them all the time.
 
PeterNSteinmetz said:
Thanks for the link.

So isn't Hong Kong an example of much of what @David Megginson said. Namely "Wealthy islands in ... the Pacific with outstanding political leadership, stringent entry/exit requirements, and no land borders. 2. Authoritarian country that can jail anyone who doesn't follow guidelines. " Admittedly closer to china so not in the middle of the Pacific and only recently becoming much more authoritarian.

I think those kind of differences between those and Western countries are what make such trans-national comparisons difficult in terms of supporting an argument for causation.
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No, Hong Kong connects directly to mainland China. Extensive ferry service to many of the islands. It's easy to take a train from Hong Kong to/from Shenzhen. A year ago, my USA passport let me into HK, no visa required.
 
Matthew Rogers said:
But they all wore masks right away and prevented millions of infections and continue to have extremely low infection rates (159th on the list of countries for infection per capita). So tell me how do masks not work? Seems to me pretty clear cut that if everyone wore masks right away, all the time, and continued to do so, we would not have many infections.
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Maybe. Here are a few of the possible other effects to consider that make the argument for causation more difficult.

Being an isolated isthmus and being able to control entry and exit strictly may be an important component of avoiding an outbreak of infection. New Zealand was similar in this regard. Countries with major land borders or tunnels may have a harder time controlling the spread.

ETA: As @Bob Noel notes, do we know the level of actual compliance?

So I don't know that we can conclude that it was entirely or even primarily the wearing of masks which was causal.

Also I don't know the quality of the masks they were wearing. It is fairly clear from the evidence that the type matters a lot. Healthcare workers wearing N95s properly experience about a 95% reduction in the rate of infection. The evidence for single layer cloth masks is much weaker and if there is an effect it is likely much smaller.

So I would not say "masks not (sic) work". I would say the evidence for cloth mask wearing by the general public slowing the spread of Covid-19 is mixed at best. And the evidence for a mandate to wear them working in a relatively free Western country with larger land borders is even weaker.
 
Cap'n Jack said:
No, Hong Kong connects directly to mainland China. Extensive ferry service to many of the islands. It's easy to take a train from Hong Kong to/from Shenzhen. A year ago, my USA passport let me into HK, no visa required.
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I stand corrected, thanks. What about since the beginning of the pandemic, how easy is it for people to cross?
 
It is true that we should all be wearing better masks. The US was so far behind the ball with months of nothing-burger happening as far as guidance and plenty of grandmas sewing masks from cheesecloth that did little good.

Germany now requires FFP2 masks and cloth are no longer allowed. Bavaria does not even allow surgical masks, they must be FFP2/3, KN95, or N95.
 
Matthew Rogers said:
I cited an article for you, exactly as you do to claim a piece of information is valid.
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Thanks. That article cited two other articles in support of the claim that there was a 90+ percent eventual mask wearing. Those do show survey responses of self report of a high rate of compliance.

One could question the actual compliance rate in a country that is fairly totalitarian I suppose. But this does suggest a high rate of wearing them, absent evidence to the contrary.

Another interesting item from one of the articles was that a large fraction said they stopped going to mainland China. That would argue for the relative isolation of Hong Kong being an important causative factor.
 
Thread locked, pending MC review.

Edit: the thread will remain closed per MC vote.
 
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