[NA] Post your past predictions, and the outcomes[NA]

Let'sgoflying!

Let'sgoflying!

Touchdown! Greaser!
Joined
Feb 23, 2005
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west Texas
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Dave Taylor
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Every now and then I think back to the things I've thought or said and wonder how they turned out.
Go ahead and post yours; don't be shy - we don't expect everyone to be Nostradamus-level.

Here are a few of the ones I have thought of recently:

1. I predicted there was nwih that the FAA would pay owners for any part of ADS-B install. Wrong, they did.

2. I predicted that my IO-520 with the spontaneously broken throughbolt, once the bolt was replaced, would be fine - despite vigorous online protestations to the contrary about 10 years and 1000 hours ago. Right.

3. I predicted that those who put their data into the cloud had a significant risk of having their data compromised about 7 years ago, and was pooh-poo'd. I think this sort of article makes me 'right'. "In fact, 82% of breaches in 2023 involved data stored in the cloud" https://www.wsj.com/tech/cybersecurity/why-are-cybersecurity-data-breaches-still-rising-2f08866c

4. I predicted the winner of the Pres. 2020 election and was wrong, (but I got the 2024 election right).

there were some others I was way off on, but can't recall them right now - I'll come back.

I won't say I was any "specific % right or wrong on average" because of that little confirmation bias (or similar) thing - I think likely most people are right in yes/no questions around 50%.
 
I’ve said a lot of things that have later turned out to be right or wrong; I don’t track my own batting average despite my opinion that weather forecasters should display the accuracy of their forecasts. I don’t give a crap about the briefer reading something, but if you’re looking at the models and forecasting the outcomes, I’d really like to know how close your forecast came to actual.

I especially would like this feature added to the short term forecast discussion.
 
TCABM said:
I don’t track my own batting average despite my opinion that weather forecasters should display the accuracy of their forecasts.
Click to expand...

I never, ever, watch a weather forecast on television. However, accuweather absolutely nailed today. 18 minutes of storm with significant wind, then beautiful, but breezy. I check several weather sites, one of them usually has it correct. I've gotten decent at figuring out which one will be the closest.
 
Fiveslide said:
I never, ever, watch a weather forecast on television. However, accuweather absolutely nailed today. 18 minutes of storm with significant wind, then beautiful, but breezy. I check several weather sites, one of them usually has it correct. I've gotten decent at figuring out which one will be the closest.
Click to expand...

I don’t care if it’s NOAA/NWS, .mil, some app, AI, the guy next door, or a local TV/Radio station. If they’re giving a forecast they developed from the data, I want their batting average so I can determine for myself how much weight to put into their prognostication.
 
I once adamantly debated with one of my co-workers that compressed air powered cars were the way of the future and they were going to take over. This was in about 2008.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Tata OneCAT - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

It seems I was incorrect.
 
I just thought of another one I completely nailed.
It was maybe 1982? i was in college and exposed to these new things called ‘home computers’ at college.
I could not beLIEVE the power held by a 5”floppy disk. INCREDIBLE the ability to store information, and so MUCH of it.

My youthful self ran out and bought 10 of them (the first ones were not exactly cheap) b/c I just knew how important and valuable these things were going to be.
 
I remember being laughed off about my concern of charging phones away from home, why couldn’t a cable be used to steal data as well as charge?
They have a name for it now; Juice Jacking

www.yahoo.com

TSA just issued a security warning to Americans about ‘juice jacking’ in airports — protect yourself with this

Hackers and scammers are taking advantage of unsuspecting travelers using this tricky technique, the TSA warns. Here’s the one inexpensive device experts say can help keep your data — and money — safe while you travel.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
Not a prediction, more a "I wouldn't have predicted this in a million years" kind of thing. Apparently now there are devices that people carry around that can steal the signal off a car fob when you lock the car's door. The people wait until you lock your door with the fob, catch the signal, and can open the door. If they're lucky, the car has a start button (not the kind those of us of a certain age were familiar with), and they can steal the car because the starter operates off the same signal. I sometimes double check whether I've locked my car by locking it from some distance. I will never do that again!
 
judypilot said:
Not a prediction, more a "I wouldn't have predicted this in a million years" kind of thing. Apparently now there are devices that people carry around that can steal the signal off a car fob when you lock the car's door. The people wait until you lock your door with the fob, catch the signal, and can open the door. If they're lucky, the car has a start button (not the kind those of us of a certain age were familiar with), and they can steal the car because the starter operates off the same signal. I sometimes double check whether I've locked my car by locking it from some distance. I will never do that again!
Click to expand...
I also read that they can cruise the neighborhood and pick off garage door opener frequencies or some such while the thing is in your home!
 
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