n/a Domestic Migration, where are they coming from?

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MauleSkinner said:
Do we know the magnitude of the + or -?
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No. But again, saying nearly 1/3 of the population is non-citizens is not even close to my experience.

But more importantly, just because we don’t know the number or the +/- doesn’t mean it’s reasonable to pull a number out of a blowhole, even if it’s “just” an “I’ll bet”
 
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Skip Miller said:
Retirees?
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I'm just not seeing that many more retired age people around. I'm sure that accounts for some of the people who live in all the new houses, but I can't imagine it's all. For example, this has always been a medical desert. There aren't hardly any new doctors or medical practices opening up. But it's not any harder to get an appointment than it has been.
 
AKiss20 said:
Also hilarious that you imply these estimates from two very different sources (one of which is in control by someone who would love that number to be higher) are both biased but that the poster in question is somehow a paragon of independence and impartiality.
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I didn’t imply that in any way. Nor did I imply that any of the other sources were somehow a paragon of independence and impartiality.
 
Ten years ago the figure was reported to be 11 million illegal aliens in the country. Do you really think the number increased by only 2 million in the last 10 years? The whole point is there is no "source" for these numbers, only some more or less reliable guesses. There is, or at least should be, hard figures for the number of visa holders. That figure is reported to be 55 million. I was startled by that figure.
 
LWGII said:
Ten years ago the figure was reported to be 11 million illegal aliens in the country.
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…and you think it went up FIVE FOLD in 10 years? Please back that up somehow.

And before someone goes down the inevitable rabbit hole that I “don’t think there’s an immigration problem” that’s completely untrue: I strongly believe there are people who absolutely depend on there continuing to be an unsolved problem with immigration to promote an agenda. And, yes, we have a problem.
 
Llewtrah381 said:
…and you think it went up FIVE FOLD in 10 years? Please back that up somehow.

And before someone goes down the inevitable rabbit hole that I “don’t think there’s an immigration problem” that’s completely untrue: I strongly believe there are people who absolutely depend on there continuing to be an unsolved problem with immigration to promote an agenda. And, yes, we have a problem.
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Ten thousand border crossers came into the US per day in one year, 2004. That's 3.6 million in one year.

That's just southern border crossers. Not counting the plane loads of border crossers flown into multiple airports across the country.
 
LWGII said:
Ten thousand border crossers came into the US per day in one year, 2004. That's 3.6 million in one year.
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So that one year, 2004, contributed 1/3 of the 11M immigrants in 2015?

Walk me through your math, if you can.
 
LWGII said:
How many illegal aliens do you think there are in the US?
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Not 55 M, which is what you think, unsubstantiated

Add: the number is large - larger than it should be. But it’s frustrating those who complain the most don’t seem the least bit interested in actually fixing the problem, especially in a way that aligns with the values many of them purport to stick to and supposedly based on the Big Book.

There are some really bad people in that mix - a small minority of a group largely doing what we would probably do in the same situation as them: take care of my family.

Yeah - I don’t like inaccurate BS that pushes an agenda not aligned with my Big Book upbringing.
 
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LWGII said:
Ten thousand border crossers came into the US per day in one year, 2004. That's 3.6 million in one year.

That's just southern border crossers. Not counting the plane loads of border crossers flown into multiple airports across the country.
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www.pewresearch.org

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are at their lowest level in more than 50 years

Since the first full month of Trump’s current term, the Border Patrol has recorded fewer than 10,000 encounters a month at the southwestern border.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org

By CBP’s own numbers, the highest number of “encounters” (defined above as an apprehension of an illegal crossing) at the southern border was 250K in Dec 2023, so not even your 10K/day. In 2024 the average was closer to 150K/month or about 5000/day.

But moreover, you’re claiming there were 10,000 *successful* illegal border crossings per day in 2024. So you’re saying CBP only has about a 33% success rate?

Do you have any actual sources for your data or is this more of your “I reckon”?
 
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How many were flown in directly from Central or South American airports? How many people crossed the northern border? How many people are smuggled into the country and are not even counted as "encounters"?

"




Showing results for 10 000 migrants a day crossed the border
Search instead for 10,000 migrants a fay crossed the border
News from the Left
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Migrants Cross Border Daily​

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border have reached levels of approximately 10,000 per day at various points in recent years. In December 2023, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) encountered nearly 12,000 people at the border daily, with a single-day record exceeding 12,600 encounters reported around December 17, 2023. This marked a peak in monthly encounters, with December 2023 seeing over 370,000 total encounters.

Earlier in 2023, daily crossings also surged above 10,000 in the days leading up to the end of the Title 42 public health order in May, as migrants sought to enter the U.S. before anticipated policy changes. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador stated in October 2023 that around 10,000 migrants were reaching the U.S.-Mexico border each day, attributing the influx to U.S. sanctions on countries like Cuba and Venezuela."
 
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Right…*encounters*. That’s exactly what I cited. An encounter is an apprehension. Those people are put into custody, either granted or denied asylum, and if denied, deported. If they’re granted asylum, they’re not illegal immigrants. If they’re deported, they’re not in the country.

You’re claiming there’s 55 million illegal immigrants freely in the country buying homes in Florida or wherever are you not?
 
Llewtrah381 said:
No. But again, saying nearly 1/3 of the population is non-citizens is not even close to my experience.

But more importantly, just because we don’t know the number or the +/- doesn’t mean it’s reasonable to pull a number out of a blowhole, even if it’s “just” an “I’ll bet”
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Saying nearly 1/6 of the population are non-citizens is not even close to my experience either, but that's the figure for visa holders.
 
LWGII said:
There is, or at least should be, hard figures for the number of visa holders. That figure is reported to be 55 million. I was startled by that figure.
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You do realize that figure includes tourists, don't you?
 
AKiss20 said:
Right…*encounters*. That’s exactly what I cited. An encounter is an apprehension. Those people are put into custody, either granted or denied asylum, and if denied, deported. If they’re granted asylum, they’re not illegal immigrants. If they’re deported, they’re not in the country.

You’re claiming there’s 55 million illegal immigrants freely in the country buying homes in Florida or wherever are you not?
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No. That's the figure the government uses for visa holders. Some of them are here for a brief period of time, some not. But they all have to live somewhere.
 
2023 data on immigrants

www.kff.org

Key Facts on Health Coverage of Immigrants | KFF

This fact sheet provides an overview of health coverage for immigrants based on data from the 2023 KFF/LA Times Survey of Immigrants, the largest nationally representative survey focused on immigrants and discusses potential implications of incoming Trump administration policies for coverage of...
www.kff.org www.kff.org

47 million total, 24.7 million naturalized citizens, 22.4 million noncitizen immigrants, 40% of which are estimated to be unlawful (either overstayed a legal visa or entered unlawfully), the remaining 60% being lawful permanent residents (green card) or work or student visas.
 
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LWGII said:
No. That's the figure the government uses for visa holders. Some of them are here for a brief period of time, some not. But they all have to live somewhere.
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Nope. You said “We have 55 MILLION people here on visas. I'll bet we have an equal number of persons without legal status.” So you claimed there were 55 million illegal immigrants.
 
LWGII said:
Saying nearly 1/6 of the population are non-citizens is not even close to my experience either, but that's the figure for visa holders.
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I live in a predominantly white, middle class, conservative area with a heavy dose of oil/gas and tech people and very few people I’d think are non-citizens. My “experience” differs from yours but I’m not so naive as to say “my experience” reflects overall reality.

Feels like you’re pushing an agenda you have yet to substantiate.
 
My heritage branches back on one side that was on the first boat that established the settlement that became Salem (yes that Salem and predating the witch trials by a long shot), to mostly refugees from the napolianic wars in Europe, with a small bit of Irish potatoe famine refugee’s. My father would not have been born if it was not for a WWI vet (from the hun side who immigrated after the war and was a hired man of my grandfather) saving my grandmother from an attacking bull that had had gotten out. The county next to the one I live in had a sheriff for over two decades that came to the USA as a POW in WWII, he was a nazi soldier, not by choice, and a damn honest, intelligent, kind man. When the war ended and the pow camp was being cleared out and the captives being sent back he asked if he could stay. The pow’s had been working in the local hemp plant and he was assigned unloading wagons, and got along very well with the local farmers ( I have heard through gossip that my grandfather used to hide a few small bottles of whiskey and a few packs of cigarettes in his hemp loads and would always be waved to the front and his wagons unloaded with enthusiasm..). But I don’t think he ever had “legitimate papers”, he was just “written off” with a wink and a nod when they sent the pows back, and they let him stay. Long story short, I think the Statue of Liberties symbolism has been forgotten.
 
Well, I had intended for this discussion to focus on domestic moves... citizens or people who are supposed to be here..or maybe including foreign citizens or entities that are buying property here. Legal stuff.

Yeah, I know illegals are a part of it...and that's a problem too...but that's a whole other thing.

Oh well, it lasted longer than I thought it would before getting into the illegals discussion. I do beleieve that was/is a real problem no matter what the number estimates are

But on the leagal and legit side of this, I just find it interesting that so many folks seem to be moving away from places like CA and NY, but yet at least per that map posted by @ArrowFlyer86 the populations there are NOT shrinking!

I wish that map showed more granularity. "1% or more" growth is a VERY broad number. Around here at least, and many other places I've travelled I'd guess that number to be many orders of magnitude more than 1%...AND with no apparent meaningful employment growth in those areas.
Anecdotally at least, it looks like there is a REAL problem in the works

also.... I guess I want to know when those places these people are coming from will be empty enough so that I can move there!
 
Llewtrah381 said:
I live in a predominantly white, middle class, conservative area with a heavy dose of oil/gas and tech people and very few people I’d think are non-citizens. My “experience” differs from yours but I’m not so naive as to say “my experience” reflects overall reality.

Feels like you’re pushing an agenda you have yet to substantiate.
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What is your estimate of the number of illegal aliens, from all sources- border crosses from the sourth, from the north, human smuggling, direct flights and other sources?

I don't have an agenda, but I was stunned by the 55 million figure. The "my experience" phrase was quoting another poster. From as lomg as I can remember, the number of illegals was quoted as "11 million." I don't believe that figure was accurate at any time.

I can't substantiate a figure, because that is the intent. Neither can you. Deliberately lie about the figures so that we are left to guess.
 
Brad W said:
But on the leagal and legit side of this, I just find it interesting that so many folks seem to be moving away from places like CA and NY, but yet at least per that map posted by @ArrowFlyer86 the populations there are NOT shrinking!
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These places are where huge swaths of the white collar economy are. There was a spike in domestic migration with COVID and the rise of remote work, but a lot of companies have had some amount of RTO over the past 2 years. Furthermore, there is some amount of regret among the population that moved when faced with the realities of living in their new locales. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we see a substantial amount of “undoing” of the migration we saw happen during COVID over the next decade.
 
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