Mid-Air at Winter Haven

The track of the Warrior seems to stop around 900'. Post #9.

 

For the record, Winter Haven (KGIF) is my home drome. My son worked at Jack Brown's during high school. I'm quite familiar.

Interesting thought. So things like seatbelts, brake lights, airbags, et cetera ad infinitum, did not make automobiles safer? FDA regulations did not improve the safety of food or drugs? I could go on and on, but what's the point? Your statement is a clear fallacy.

 

oof. Minus field elevation of 150, that's a high collision if true. Seaplanes were agreed to be operating below 500AGL if I understand this local operation correctly? It's already egregious they insist on operating directly under a busy land airport traffic pattern because "we were here first", but if they're not even going to exercise a modicum of altitude discipline then I'm not sympathetic to their argument at all. I don't even care much about this regulatory back-n-forth over nordo/adsb potato that has overtaken the thread; they have no leg to stand on if they came in bombing across a class E final/base ground tracks at 750AGL. None.

We have to sidestep or climb for class E traffic patterns all.the.time during the conduct of our low-level MTR training (500agl at 360GKTS at 12 aspect is not a fight anybody is gonna win when we slice through joe Nordo). That's taxpayers getting less value added, but we do it because it's the prudent thing to do. This seaplane operation needs to suck it up and start acting with a better sense of shared responsibility, even if it's money-inconvenient. As I said before, why we can't have nice things.

 

See post 87

 

See post #87. It appears that JB's may have changed their altitude protocol recently. Don't know the reason yet.

Actually, it's the other way around. KGIF pre-dates Jack Brown's by about 35 years. The land was donated for the airport in 1925 and it operated as a grass field at first. It got paved runways when it was used by the Army in WWII.
https://www.mywinterhaven.com/airport/about/history-2/

Agreed, and I think there will be lots of publicity and discussion. The home office for the Seaplane Pilots Association is in the FBO building at KGIF. There's no way this crash won't get attention.

 

Better or worse, that tends to change things the most no matter what the subject is

 

In this modern day and age is it so difficult to ask for a flippin radio. Shoot they have been around for 100 years. Why the stubborn defiance. ADSB would be nice also. Whats the reasoning for not having at least a radio? Death wish? It cant be affordability…not in a world where a tank of gas is 8 bucks a gallon. we go through the trouble to install position lights no one sees in the daytime but something as simple as a radio… god forbid we upset the gods of freedom.

 

Because radios do not prevent mid-air collisions.

I believe many pilots already have a dangerous blind faith in radios and adsb that results in complacency. Requiring radios will only make that worse IMO. We should all be flying with the assumption that there are NORDO planes out there, because even with a mandate, there will always be NORDO planes out there.

 

If KGIF becomes class D then the NORDO problem will sort itself out without a mandate for people who live and fly in rural areas where a radio isn't necessary.

 

How much talk about Jack Browns was there at the meetings about this, https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/remote-tower-project.138820/

 

I respectfully disagree. ..and of course its just my opinion as a fellow pilot.
It would be best if we could fly knowing that there are NO NORDO planes out there. Although yes in the name of safety always assume the worst. However, technology does save lives. Something as simple as a radio should have been mandated on all planes long ago. As someone said most planes dont fly Iowa Corn Fields and are usually in controlled airspace...and even those "IOWA" planes are in increasingly busy airspace. While you can argue that Seatbelts, lane departure warning etc on cars make us more complacent, they also increase safety for everyone. Can anyone here honestly state that a radio or even ADSB(although not reliable at low alt) would not have given them an additional layer of security. TWO CFI's.. 4 pilots...even if only one was to hear the other aircraft lives could have been saved.

There are so many non towered airports, with busy pattern burning aircraft...yes often I also feel that the students just call out positions and dont actually try to resolve "conflicts" or listen to others, as we have seen in past accidents, but if there is even a minor chance a radio would help shouldn't we want that?..if not for ourselves for our passengers? I would wager if no one had radios there would be alot more accidents. Even more without ADSB? I am guessing the FAA has some stats?

 

I understand your position. You can’t mandate away idiocy.

radios result in improved safety, but mostly only because they make it easier to do things safely. They don’t directly improve safety. I can and do argue that in some ways they distract and decrease safety.

 

There is the solution. Require every plane to have smoke and have it turned on while in the pattern...

 

White smoke for singles, yellow for twins, red for turbines?

 

It would be safer, so it’s not logical for everyone not to do it, right?

 

Well, yes. There will always be aircraft flying with radio problems. My last flight, for instance, I had headset issues and other planes' transmissions were garbled and the sidetone was badly distorted. Brand new Flightcom ANR. My homemade headsets sound better (albeit no ANR).

There will always be aircraft tuned to the wrong frequency. My home airport, one of the busiest uncontrolled airports in the state, is changing its CTAF frequency after ~50 years at 122.8. It's going to be real fun for a while, after that.

There will always be pilots identifying the wrong "white Cessna" instead of the one that's truly their traffic.

There will always be pilot mis-stating their positions. There will always be pilots who flat-out ignore other aircraft's calls. There will always be CFIs who turn off the radios in the pattern because all the calls interfere with their student instruction.

The number of midairs involving the above factors vastly outnumber the ones involving NORDO aircraft. In the thirteen-year period that I posted about, there were just two cases of a midair in the pattern involving a radio-equipped airplane and a NORDO one. There were 46 cases where both planes had radios. Four happened at controlled fields.

I wrote up my analysis for my EAA chapter newsletter this month. Plotted out some data...rather interesting.

Only about a third of midairs occur in the traffic pattern. All the others happen away from the airport, where *everybody* is, essentially, NORDO (except for those under ATC control).

NORDO airplanes aren't the problem. They SCARE people, yes. But it's a good thing to be scared, when operating in a busy pattern....

Ron Wanttaja

 

White smoke if you've elected to land, black smoke if you're going to continue circling. Heck, it works for the Vatican....

Actually, I *like* the idea of leaving smoke trails. But, of course, you'll end up with people too cheap to buy smoke oil, and those rebels who insist on flying NOSMOKE.

Ron Wanttaja

 

Can you normalize those data for the number of aircraft not equipped with radios versus those so equipped?

 

Certainly. Point me to an official source that provides data for NORDO vs. Non-NORDO. Not aware of one myself.

As of January 1st, there were ~3,800 J-3 Cubs on the active registry. Willing to bet more than one have radios; beyond that, we don't really know.

Here's a summary of the aircraft involved in pattern-related midairs, 2008-2020. I manually typed in the entries in the Plane #2 column. BTW, *still* looking for a way to easily post tables.

Some of these are foreign accidents, where the rules might have been different.

CEN09LA555 involved two NORDO airplanes, as are CEN13LA506, GAA15CA157, and ANC10LA094. The latter is two NORDO PA-18s on floats taking off from the same lake. CEN21LA040 may have involved two NORDO J-3s, but there's no mention of equipage or radio calls in the NTSB preliminary.

Almost all of these planes are of the type that should have radios installed. I suspect a couple of the cases with Ag aircraft probably weren't talking. One of those cases involved aircraft flying to nearby airports with no common frequency, another was two Ag airplanes spraying fields near each other.

Ron Wanttaja

 

In fact, I brought up the JB question. The answer was along the lines of “right, we’re working on it.”

 

You've got a couple of see and avoid incidents with two balloons in there.

"Any other balloons in the traffic pattern please advise..."


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdI9KOSXsAAE7jw.jpg

 

Looking at comparative rates, using denominators, versus incidences, would make for much more meaningful analysis.

 

Or I was irritated at how many there were but was headed out of town and decided to see if anyone would care to analyze it.
Your post was ad hominem attacking me instead of seeing if I was correct. Also, part of being an adult is engaging in critical thinking and listening to other people's arguments. You don't get a pass on that.

Let's see...
A Priori? Begging the Question?

Argument from Ignorance

I'm generally sympathetic, but the fact of the matter remains that they could have had a handheld and this accident still could have happened, because in fact the Warrior crew's scan was also inadequate.

 

True, but it's a start, and a sight more than any of the critics have done.

 

Sure. But, again, it all depends on how many airplanes are NORDO, and there's no data for it.

Another thing we might consider is what kind of airports these NORDO in-pattern accidents are happening.

From the 2008-2020 database, there are seven NTSB reports where the midair occurred in the traffic pattern with at least one NORDO airplane. Three occurred at/near private airports, one at a lake.

So far, I'm assuming no one wants to impose radio requirements at private airports (who could, if they wish, implement their own).

The remaining three happened at larger public airports where one might expect a greater variety of traffic.

One (WPR09LA228) was two NORDO Ag airplanes running into each other. Neither had radios.

Another was a NORDO Taylorcraft and a Cessna 185.

The third was a NORDO Pitts Special and a Cherokee.

So there we are. Out of nearly 22,000 accidents, only two involved the "classic" situation of a single NORDO airplane and a traditional modern airplane running into each other in the pattern. Seems like the odds are pretty low.

Oh, and those three at larger airports? No fatalities in any of them. Over the same time period, there were 41 fatalities in radio-equipped aircraft involved in midairs in traffic patterns.

Just don't see the NORDO planes being a threat.

Ron Wanttaja

 

I agree a lot more data are necessary. I also think there’s quite a bit of survivorship bias (ironically, the opposite of “survival” for those who encountered the midairs) built into some of the conclusions I’ve seen in this thread (hence the need for denominators).

I’m not saying there’s no value in any of this, but it’s hard to make a strong, unbiased case without a much deeper dive.

 

I'll take imperfect data over emotion based arguments any day, especially when those who argue from emotional reactions are trying to create government mandates.

 

I’d ask you to describe irony, but I think you just did it.

 

There is a school at my home field most students and new private pilots are miles away from where they say they are….. this post has taught me so much about people on this site. I have twice had issues with a radio and landed nordo and i thought nothing of it. My opinion is radios are great I use one when i fly but i like the smoke mandate better. This is such a dangerous road to go down its like saying in the name of safety only the military and airlines should be in the sky. Chicken little the sky is NOT falling. Mad respects and we all should listen to Ron (thank you for dropping your knowledge).

 

So you are more likely to die in a mid air if you fly with a radio?

 

Bleeding from all the cuts from the vacuum tubes.....

Ron Wanttaja

 

I thought it may be mercury poisoning from the old displays ..

 

Radium on dials....mercury in the anti gravity reactor..

 

I think some of y’all are missing the point of the NORDO argument. Myself, for sure, I’m for having and using technology. I’m not ludite, and would be happy to have the option to put a portable ADS-B in my plane, but buzzards will never evolve their own ADS-B and we’ll also never eliminate electrical failures, people dialing in the wrong frequencies, or absolute idiots flying in IMC conditions because they have a G1000 and autopilot equipped plane even though they don’t have an IFR ticket. The failure of the Warrior crew, is to presume that everyone does what they should. That’s not just a NORDO problem. I believe that the bright yellow Cub with light gray floats should have been visible from the left seat on downwind especially since there is a picture of the right seat instructor with a Jack Brown hat. The claim cannot not be made that they were from out of town and unaware of the possibility of a NORDO Cub float plane in the vicinity.

Pilots need to have a defensive flying mindset and use the tools that they do have, including their eyes, and local knowledge, if known, in the fairly reasonable assumption that a low time rookie student pilot, or a bird, or a confused older gentleman who hasn’t realized he should hang it up yet, or an over-stressed executive with too much on his mind, a tired CFI, or an emergency aircraft, might just be out to kill them today. We are all susceptible to getting too focused on something, and that is just as much of a significant error on the Warrior's crew's part as the Cub’s crew made.

Wing rocks, lights on in the pattern, and occasional changes of pitch or bank for visual observation purposes ought to be part of flying. We're supposed to teach clearing turns, and I cannot tell you how many times I've been on flight following and still had close calls with well-equipped aircraft in local practice areas. Radios and even ADS-B are only half the solution, at best.

 

I would never advocate for wig-wag lights, radios, chem smoke trails, bright paint schemes, or ADSB to be mandatory. But I do believe that these things, in conjunction with a pilot that keeps his 20/20's looking out the window will help safety. I can't accept the argument that better awareness through radios and ADSB isn't going to have a positive impact on safety, even if it's small. But at this point we only kill a few people every now and again in a mid-air so it ain't no big concern.

Locally we just lost three folks and maimed a fourth at a nasty intersection that needs to be redesigned as now there is only a yield sign and in the dark some folks miss it. On coming traffic from both directions at 55 mph get together sometimes and the results are tragic.

When the news went to the state highway department they said there was no money for changes at this time but if the county wanted to spend their money on the state road they could have at it.

But it's only a few lives a year and it doesn't really matter ... unless you or a loved one are one of the fatalities.

 

As much as I hate to say it, I think ADS-B to augment eyes is probably superior to the radio in some circumstances, especially where people may be on different frequencies, and also when there are too many people trying to talk all at once. If I'm south of Dallas Exec, where I sometimes fly my Luscombe, even if I'm using the the handheld radio, there could be people on at least four different freqs... Redbird Tower, Midway CTAF, Lancaster CTAF, or Flight Following with regional approach. If I have to guess which one they are on, it's crazy. The FAA really needs to figure out an ADS-B out option for those of us willing to put it on a small battery...

 

I agree that there needs to be an affordable, battery powered ads-b out transponder that can easily be used in nordo aircraft. We already have handhelds for com and vor nav.

Also, having ads-b in with voice alerts really helps...you can keep your eyes outside the aircraft. ForeFlight connected to Sentry for ads-b in, with ipad audio going into battery powered intercom works nicely.

With that being said, it only takes a few seconds to be distracted...none of us are perfect, and accidents will always happen.

 

From my recent analysis, I have also come to the conclusion that ADS-B would be an advantage in the outside-the-pattern environment. An area near my home airport is a common practice area for a number of FBOs; I noted several of the midairs involved planes involved in such areas doing airwork for training. There's supposedly a common frequency for coordination in this area (which I JUST learned about in a similar discussion in a different forum after flying over that area for 40 years). The distraction factor would be less for planes at altitude not jockeying for pattern position.

Also agree with Doug... there needs to be an affordable battery-operated solution. The FAA is too hung up on "We control the traffic" and enforcement issues; we people just need something that automatically bleeps their position. I'm NOT advocating this as mandatory (outside the rule airspace).

We also need non-visual callout of traffic. If it's going to work in a heavy traffic/potential NORDO situation, the pilot needs an AI telling him where to look, not flicking his eyes to a screen and back outside.

My car has a video camera mounted on the right-side exterior camera. When I hit the turn signal for a right turn, the screen in the center of the dash shows what the camera sees. I really like it when changing lanes, but I notice I'm increasingly depending on it to the exclusion of using the other mirrors or looking over my shoulder. It appears that the car manufacturer only had it for one or two years; they switched to an idiot light like everyone else.

Similarly, I'm concerned with the number of people who will develop the attitude that ADS-B and radios will tell them EVERYTHING they need to know about nearby traffic. Unfortunately, reliance on such technology is rife, these days. Remember, you're dependent on the OTHER GUY'S technology working. But you've got no guarantee of that....

The classic horror movies about the Wolf Man usually feature the charming poem…“Even a man who is pure in heart, And says his prayers by night, May become a wolf when the wolfbane blooms, And the moon is full and bright.”

Flying? This can be altered to “Even a pilot who is pure at heart and does everything right, might end up getting centerpunched by a B3 (Blind Bozo in a Bonanza).”

Ron Wanttaja

 

I've actually worked comparisons to Putin into daily conversation, to stay relevant.

 

Fair enough; he's certainly a bad guy. But it is a short leap from that to working Trump or Biden into it. I walk away from those people.