Long range weather planning

Bill

Bill

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Most progs go out 48hrs, some go out as far as 72hrs. Are there any long range prog like charts to consult for weather 7-10 days out?
 
Bill Jennings said:
Most progs go out 48hrs, some go out as far as 72hrs. Are there any long range prog like charts to consult for weather 7-10 days out?
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They'll be completely worthless if you do find them. 72hrs is a best guess anyway. I don't count on anything past 12hrs, and even then there are errors.
 
72-120hrs? Plan on the exact reverse what they say.
Longer range forecasts? Flip a coin.
 
Henning said:
They'll be completely worthless if you do find them. 72hrs is a best guess anyway. I don't count on anything past 12hrs, and even then there are errors.
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Agreed. I like the Wunderground looksee just to see what they think is going to happen. But, I won't trust it until the very soonest as of the evening before.

And, if there happens to be a hurricane coming across the Gulf, all bets are off for anything nice otherwise planned in the Jawjuh area.
 
You can take a weather course. There are numerous books on weather planning. Start doing your own forecasting. Begin with the prog charts (in the daily newspapers or adds.aviationweather.gov). If you track for several days in a row, you'll get to see how well your forecasts match the projections.
The Coast Guard Auxiliary has an excellent weather course. You can find the manual online. The weather course gives you background on the reasons why things happen and hints on predicting trends. For AUX members, it's a specialty course.
It isn't hard to forecast, it's hard to get it right! Ask a weatherman.
 
This one goes out 7 days:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Can't say I trust it much past 48 hours (or any other weather report) for a local forecast, but I have found it to be a reasonable representation of how large scale weather patterns are moving.

Gary
 
John,

I searched (some) for the weather manual you mentioned but couldn't find it. If you would please post a link I'd appreciate it.

I don't agree with Henning that long range forecasts are completely useless. Certainly you can't use a 10 day forecast to make a VFR go/no-go decision but you can use them to get a decent idea of what kind of weather systems that will probably be in the area.

The weather channel (weather.com) is the only one I know of that does 10 day forecast maps. The seem to over esitmate percipitation compared with the others.

NOAA has a good 7 day forecast http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/conusWeek.php?expandweek=ON#tabs

Also you can get general outlook for longer periods from their Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

There is a weather model that goes out 14 days (GFS) but the tools to access it are a bit well complicated. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit

Joe
 
Joe Bastardi at Accuweather does a pretty good job out to ten days. His long range forecasts (2-3) months are credible enough that energy companies and others pay big bucks for his services.

He's only on the Accuweather pro site which is fairly pricey (I forget exactly, but it's around $250 year).
 
With all our access to statistical analysis and computers, its amazing to me that you can't find a rating for each of the forecasters....ie NWS forecasts for 5-10 days accuracy is a score 43/100, TWC forecasts for the same period is 37/100, Wunderground gets 51/100 etc etc.

I still think after 5 days they are doing good to predict the season that will occur during that time!
 
Areeda said:
I don't agree with Henning that long range forecasts are completely useless. Certainly you can't use a 10 day forecast to make a VFR go/no-go decision but you can use them to get a decent idea of what kind of weather systems that will probably be in the area.

Joe
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You live in SoCal, What do you know about weather? "Sunny and 72, morning Marine Layer clearing the beaches by 11:00." You can say that 290 days a year and be correct.:P
 
Henning said:
You live in SoCal, What do you know about weather? "Sunny and 72, morning Marine Layer clearing the beaches by 11:00." You can say that 290 days a year and be correct.:P
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How true. Remember that documentary called LA Story, where the weather man recorded the weekend forecasts and took the time off. The only time I really care is when I go on a long cross country and the main question is what day to leave so watching the long range forecasts over time says a lot. Joe
 
Just start practicing looking at the long rang forecast for you local area/ You will then get a feel fro how they end up differing from what really happens. Those long term guesses are hardly ever true.
 
I'm not saying that long range forecasts are as good as short range ones but If you're going a long trip they can be very useful.

If you start looking out a week to 10 days in advance and the forecasts are consistent day after day it means a lot more than when they are not.

The kinds of information that seems reliable is the existance of fronts and storm systems. The problems seem to be how fast they are moving and where the edges are so spot forecasts are often wrong, but the big picture is still pretty useful for me.

Joe
 
I use this one.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models.html

I watch the trend. Like Joe says, if the forecast trend is consistent then the probability of accuracy in the forecast is higher. I'm usually pretty safe in looking at the "day 10" forecast and being prepared for exactly the opposite.

In other words, cover all your bases and you won't get too big of a surprise unless the wx men get one, too.
 
The Coast Guard Auxiliary training site has the powerpoint presentation and the study guides. Check here.
You're not looking to predict how much rainfall 10 days out, just that it has a high possibility of rain. Besides, our intro to weather was our PPL, this is just the next step.
And if I looked good on TV, I could be a weatherman too.
 
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