Labor shortage

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falconkidding said:
IDT so. Numbers have been dropping for a couple years. If I remember correctly illegal immigration peaked in 2007 and has been trending down or flat since then. Refugee numbers are down to 15000 a year and I don't think legal immigration has increased.
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That, according to well placed sources, is misinformation. I've been on the Texas Border, I know people in Law Enforcement, and they are stretched so thin it's ridiculous.
 
LesGawlik said:
I remember years ago reading that there was a sharp drop in violent crime about 18 years after R v. W.
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The leaded gasoline phasedown claims that same crime reduction.

The crime reduction was also seen in Europe, that also phased out lead... but had legalized abortion LONG before. So I think the odds-on favorite for accuracy is with the lead folks.

Paul
 
eman1200 said:
This is the “let’s let them say something we don’t agree with, then smack the ban hammer on them” technique.
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As if there is some other technique? :D :P

Guessing the complaints have already rolled in from the quiet-yet-perennially-offended. I regret taking the bait, but the horse is outta the barn now.
 
DavidWhite said:
I seem to recall a bug going around for awhile that I think may have had something to do with it
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That excuse has ran its course. COVID isn’t preventing anyone from working right now. Seriously, anyone using COVID as an excuse for unemployment needs to get a life!
 
Half Fast said:
I know many people, including myself, who aren’t working and don’t want to. The boomer workforce is rapidly retiring. Quite a few of us ran the numbers and figured out we were working for free, or almost free. COVID and working from home eliminated most of the fun factor for me, so there wasn’t really any reason to continue.
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This. Glad I left the workforce early; a couple years pre-COVID. Got to do some international traveling before it became harder. I volunteer with a number of different organizations. Volunteering is good, you can choose what you want to do, and they are generally nice to you because they want you to keep coming back. No interest in returning to the workforce, even though I've gotten a couple unsolicited inquiries.
 
RyanB said:
That excuse has ran its course. COVID isn’t preventing anyone from working right now. Seriously, anyone using COVID as an excuse for unemployment needs to get a life!
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What about the people who are dead and can no longer work? Is that a valid excuse?
 
Zeldman said:
I have tried to get some of the teenagers at church to do some work around my house. When I tell them I'll pay 60 bucks for the 8 hour day in cash, no taxes plus I'll feed them and so far all have refused except one. Guess who is going to get the big job this summer....


When I was a teenager I took anything that paid anything...

soapbox-preach.gif
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I think you are paying less than minimum wage. Teenagers pay little to no tax on earnings so the cash part is irrelevant. In my area summer labor is getting 15 to 25 an hour. Try raising your rate to a market wage of day 20 an hour and I bet you get takers. The other option is to have a good looking daughter. Teenage boys would show up and work at my house for free!
 
PaulMillner said:
The leaded gasoline phasedown claims that same crime reduction.

The crime reduction was also seen in Europe, that also phased out lead... but had legalized abortion LONG before. So I think the odds-on favorite for accuracy is with the lead folks.

Paul
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(not directed at Paul)

Always fun to see people not understand the difference between correlation and causation. Actually, it isn't fun. it's quite sad.
 
It’s GLOBAL WARMING!!!! Causes everything bad!!!! Doesn’t it???

Cheers
 
Half Fast said:
I know many people, including myself, who aren’t working and don’t want to. The boomer workforce is rapidly retiring. Quite a few of us ran the numbers and figured out we were working for free, or almost free. COVID and working from home eliminated most of the fun factor for me, so there wasn’t really any reason to continue.

Tomorrow I’ll be meeting a dozen or so of my recently retired buddies at a BBQ place for lunch. Sure hope there will be a waiter....
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If you're very fortunate, there will be a waitress.
 
Bob Noel said:
(not directed at Paul)

Always fun to see people not understand the difference between correlation and causation. Actually, it isn't fun. it's quite sad.
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Great website here: https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

The problem is, it's easy to show a correlation. It's a popular exercise in many college and some high school classes. Pull some data from the web, make a graph, marvel at the R^2 value.

Proving causation is hard. It's what matters, of course, but it's hard, sometimes impossible to do. The main value of showing a strong correlation to a plausible cause is that it might justify investing the effort into looking for causation.
 
Bob Noel said:
try to find people willing to work on a farm...
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Oh, man, can I quote you chapter and verse on that...I do run a farm. We haven't had a kid come up the lane looking for work in years. I tried hiring a neighbor's kid and that was a disaster. The Mexicans worried hard and did so for fair pay, but they are gone now, because, well, hate. Now, even getting parts and supplies is an epic hassle. Rarely are parts orders correctly filled, and getting some one the phone to correct them is farcical.

If my wife didn't love this place so much I'd gtfo in a New York second, or cut it up and build houses.
 
Jeff767 said:
I think you are paying less than minimum wage. Teenagers pay little to no tax on earnings so the cash part is irrelevant. In my area summer labor is getting 15 to 25 an hour. Try raising your rate to a market wage of day 20 an hour and I bet you get takers. The other option is to have a good looking daughter. Teenage boys would show up and work at my house for free!
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Yeah, no. I paid $35 an hour for a 17yr old kid to mow my lawn, he did it half a dozen times, the soccer, friends etc. an then bailed with no notice. Then had the balls to come ask if he could still hunt my land... In 30 years we had one kid who got it. I pay $4 a stall for cleaning out the horse poop. Takes about ten minutes for the average person. He came through and earned the equivalent of $50 an hour, and I was glad to pay it.
 
RyanB said:
That excuse has ran its course. COVID isn’t preventing anyone from working right now. Seriously, anyone using COVID as an excuse for unemployment needs to get a life!
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A million excess deaths probably hasn't reduced the workforce by a million, but probably by some percentage of that. 50 percent?
 
steingar said:
This was predicted long ago. Just as there was a baby boom now decades later there's a retirement boom.
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But it's not just that. It's entitlement, and the ridiculous thought process that there are no starter jobs, everything has to be a "career" and pay living wages. No. Certain jobs always have been and should always be stepping stones. Burger flipping is not a career. Hired lawn care work is not a career (owning the biz is). Serving drinks is not a career - although if you are REALLY good, you can make it one.

20 years ago the McD's down the road was always post-college age managers with HS and college age workers. Now, there's not a single person working there younger than me except the managers, because whatever generation this is that's HS and college age thinks they are supposed to get $60K a year to get my order wrong.
 
Palmpilot said:
A million excess deaths probably hasn't reduced the workforce by a million, but probably by some percentage of that. 50 percent?
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Less than that for C19 related. 74%+ of C19 deaths were age 65+
75% of the deaths came from 16% of the population.
 
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Palmpilot said:
A million excess deaths probably hasn't reduced the workforce by a million, but probably by some percentage of that. 50 percent?
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At the risk of being coarse, I'd say much less than that. The C19 deaths are primarily in the 65+ range (75% of the 1MM), which likely pits most of that segment out of the workforce by a fair margin. Probably 10% is a better wild guess at it.
 
DavidWhite said:
What about the people who are dead and can no longer work? Is that a valid excuse?
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Except the bulk of all of those deaths were of people aged 65 and older and weren’t part of the existing work force anyway. Plenty of stats on it.
 
RyanB said:
Except the bulk of all of those deaths were of people aged 65 and older and weren’t part of the existing work force anyway. Plenty of stats on it.
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But muh feelings!!!!!!!!!!!! RRRRReeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
 
EdFred said:
Less than that for C19 related. 74%+ of C19 deaths were age 65+
75% of the deaths came from 16% of the population.
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SoonerAviator said:
At the risk of being coarse, I'd say much less than that. The C19 deaths are primarily in the 65+ range (75% of the 1MM), which likely pits most of that segment out of the workforce by a fair margin. Probably 10% is a better wild guess at it.
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Yeah, something in that range is probably more plausible.

From reading the thread, the labor shortage sounds like it has a combination of causes.
 
Palmpilot said:
What do feelings have to do with it?
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Implications that C19 caused a worker shortage of 1,000,000 based on some emotional distortion vs actual facts.
(See the poster's previous posts in locked threads and you'll see that his arguments are distorted due to emotion)
 
Own a welding fabrication shop. It's always been hard finding younger guys to get in the trade. But we usually do a decent job of retaining them once here. The younger kids are usually fresh out of trade school or vocational school. They say there welds passed a break test but I have absolutely no idea how. Last kid went to florida at Tulsa welding school. No clue what they taught. I suspect all these places are just puppy mills and don't really teach. Couldn't get a neutral flame on a torch. Completely misses a leg on a fillet weld. I'm fairly confident by the end of a workday I could get my 10 year old niece to have done better. And if it weren't for labor laws, I'd hire her.

The last two we got from local vocational school was the same thing. I taught them more in a day than they learned in 2 years. They spent a semester GAS WELDING. Not brazing. But gas welding...with a torch. Tried emailing and calling the teacher. You'd think they'd want to talk with an employer in the Industry they're teaching. No response, no calls back.

Another kid fresh out of school with zero real experience wanted 23 an hour and full benefits to start. Go get it, but not here.

In February we lost a guy. Was promised a dollar an hour raise elsewhere. But would be working 4- 10 hour days and an 8 hour day. But start at 5. And option to work six hours on Saturday. He worked there 3 days and learned the optional Saturday wasn't really optional. Then he tore 3 ligaments and patellar tendon in his knee that weekend in a snowmobile wreck. We're so desperate for skill we brought him back while he would be out of work giving him what ever bench work we can.

But it's not even skilled labor. Finding someone to answer phones was impossible. Had one of the employees sons do it as he went to school for cad and that would free me up. Completely useless cad wise, I'd get drawings with open paths that I can't use on the cnc. Next girl showed up for the interview, agreed to terms. Then no showed. Hired my former baseball coaches son who we knew was having a hard time since his dad took his own life. He was going to med school but his dad doing what he did really screwed him up and he wasn't nearly as ready to move on with life as we thought. Attempt 4 was a repeat of number 2. Fifth hire lasted a few months. Broke up with her boyfriend and the recovering alcoholic was no longer in recovery and the excuses for not being at work were out of this world. Tried to get her sobered up and into AA but apparently not believing in god was an issue. Finally she stopped showing up which was fine by me since that got us off the hook for unemployment.
 
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Palmpilot said:
Yeah, something in that range is probably more plausible.

From reading the thread, the labor shortage sounds like it has a combination of causes.
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And I would put C19 deaths way, way, way down the list of reasons. Now what C19 did do with the whole work from home thing is flip the whole cubical farm dynamic on its head, and a-hole managers and companies that enable a-hole managers are having trouble getting people back into the cubical farms where they can be treated like crap, and micromanaged by a boss that treats everyone like a metric (often an unmeasurable one) rather than a co-worker. Those places are having trouble getting people to come back, because they realized the job doesn't have to be like that.

However, non-office jobs I'm chalking up to entitlement.
 
Palmpilot said:
A million excess deaths probably hasn't reduced the workforce by a million, but probably by some percentage of that. 50 percent?
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I don't think 10% of the deaths attributed to WuFlu were a result of that disease, but there has been a stunning 40% increase in all cause mortality in the working age population in the last year.
 
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