Jay Zs old plane off the runway in Cabo

MMSL 102250Z 23010KT 10SM SKC 29/09 A2999 RMK CI

MMSL 102339Z 25013KT 10SM SKC 28/05 A2998 RMK INCURSION EN PISTA
 
From BeechTalk:

Someone posted this on FB - https://www.facebook.com/share/1TaC7adR ... tid=wwXIfr

Crash at Cabo right after we landed. I didn’t see it, but saw the big dust cloud. The aircraft departed the runway after the gear left the plane. Everyone walked off a little shaken. Sounds like one pilots froze on the controls and were fighting each other for controls. Landed about a foot short and knocked the gear off.
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1744381073204.jpeg
 
MauleSkinner said:
Crash at Cabo right after we landed. I didn’t see it, but saw the big dust cloud. The aircraft departed the runway after the gear left the plane. Everyone walked off a little shaken. Sounds like one pilots froze on the controls and were fighting each other for controls. Landed about a foot short and knocked the gear off.
Click to expand...

Ummm...the gear wasn't "knocked off" the aircraft, it was "excursioned" from the aircraft. :fingerwag:
 
Doc Holliday said:
Yea, those are surface winds. What was the wind aloft?

So even if the aloft winds were +10, the approach speed would have been 116. Depending on weight, that's not that low.
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You’re right. Extrapolating and converting data from the same relative location (250-300’ AGL on a 1/4-1/2 mobile final) on a sample of four other approaches in the past month, that aircraft averages about 117-132 knots indicated. But that’s based on surface winds and an unknown Vref for the weight.

On the accident flight, the same methodology of conversion and extrapolation results in an estimated IAS of 104 at a similar location/altitude on the approach as the previous examples.

Sorry, I don’t have an exact wind aloft at 250’ AGL for Cabo. However, the forecast models (to be taken with a grain of salt) for that time did not show any significant speed or directional shear in the lowest hundred mb, but were several degrees off from the METAR.

NAM:

1744389114046.jpeg

Or GFS, if you prefer:

1744389169598.jpeg

Working the problem backwards - you’d need an additional 12 knots of headwind component (edit to clarify: 12 knots more hw component than the surface component as indicated by the METAR) at ~250’ AGL to get to the low end of the range of speeds indicated in the other examples. Not impossible by any means, just working the problem and showing what it would take to make it work. Also, the effect of weight on selected Vref will continue to be an unknown until the investigation completes.
 
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Flying Keys said:
You’re right. Extrapolating and converting data from the same relative location (250-300’ AGL on a 1/4-1/2 mobile final) on a sample of four other approaches in the past month, that aircraft averages about 117-132 knots indicated. But that’s based on surface winds and an unknown Vref for the weight.

On the accident flight, the same methodology of conversion and extrapolation results in an estimated IAS of 104 at a similar location/altitude on the approach as the previous examples.

Sorry, I don’t have an exact wind aloft at 250’ AGL for Cabo. However, the forecast models (to be taken with a grain of salt) for that time did not show any significant speed or directional shear in the lowest hundred mb, but were several degrees off from the METAR.

NAM:

View attachment 139747

Or GFS, if you prefer:

View attachment 139748

Working the problem backwards - you’d need an additional 12 knots of headwind component at ~250’ AGL to get to the low end of the range of speeds indicated in the other examples. Not impossible by any means, just working the problem and showing what it would take to make it work. Also, the effect of weight on selected Vref will continue to be an unknown until the investigation completes.
Click to expand...

I’ve flown into that airport many times. Not unusual to get downdrafts right off the approach end of 29. Winds coming over those hills create some interesting variables.
 
Don’t want to land short on rwy29. Sits on an elevated plateau and that is just a big rock wall at the wind of the runway. Lucky to just lose the landing gear. As Doc H says, you can get down drafts, and updrafts depending on the winds from that plateau.

Even back taxiing for takeoff from 29 (no taxiway) I get the sweats about thinking what would happen if I overshoot the turn around. Don’t fail me now brakes. ;-)
 
Judging from the speed of the plane across the dirt, and the dust plume caused by the engines as it spun and stopped, it appears a lot of throttle was in play. It may be a go around was initiated just as the aircraft hit terrain, but during the subsequent crash sequence, the crew didn't close the throttles.
 
If it was Diddy’s old plane it would have been a greaser.
 
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