It's a sad day today for manned spaceflight

I was at Edwards for every test flight with the tail cone. This last flight I wondered if something disasterously occured would that kick in a Plan B which called for another last flight to avoid having the last flight being infamously noted?
 
It is a great day for spaceflight. Private sector spaceflight, get the gov't out of the way and let progress happen.
 
While I am sad to see the end of the shuttle program, I am excited by the fact that we are entering the dawn of commercial space flight. I am excited to see company's such as Siera nevada that are developing vehicles for manned space flight. In 2015 the first space flight will be bringing astronauts to the ISS. That same year the worlds first commercial space station is to be in space, the following year a second station will be coming online. I hope to see us return to the moon in the next 20 years.
 
Last edited:
It is a great day for spaceflight. Private sector spaceflight, get the gov't out of the way and let progress happen.

Spoken by someone that hasn't read the moon treaty we signed, or the myriad of other space related treaties.

You do realize that patents don't apply, space is considered "common property" that no one can own. The same goes for the moon, nobody can claim it legally.

I agree with the sentiment you have, but we have about a dozen treaties in place that pretty much make anything other than pleasure flights unworkable. You don't even want to know the liability rules...

Unless these suddenly changed, that is.
 
Treaties with who? The former USSR? the french? More bureaucratic wankerage, I'm sure all those highly trained NASA treaty compliance specialists will find gainful private sector employment. Why are gov't joyrides into space glorious and private ones not?
 
It is a great day for spaceflight. Private sector spaceflight, get the gov't out of the way and let progress happen.
There are plenty of private sector spaceflight companies involved in spaceflight. That has been the case for decades now in regard to satellite manufacturing and launch. Many of those missions are wholly private and have zero government involvement (other than regulatory oversight).

What there is not a private sector for is space exploration. The private sector will not build a Hubble telescope or send men to Mars, because such missions are enormously expensive (in private sector terms) and there is little likelihood of financial return.

However, they *will* build unmanned cargo ships to carry supplies to the International Space Station. They *would like* to build manned vehicles to carry crews to/from the ISS. Why? Because the government will pay them handsomely to do that!

If NASA wasn't pumping billions of dollars into SpaceX, it would not exist. Having NASA as their biggest customer gives them the credibility that attracts investors and other customers...without NASA, they simply would not have the money they need to do what they're doing. If government "got out of the way", there would be no SpaceX right now!

NASA has never bulilt a rocket. Private sector industry has built every rocket, capsule, fuel tank, or Shuttle that's ever flown with a US flag on it.

The only thing that's changing is that for the first time, a couple of companies are building vehicles to their own designs and that will be operated by their own employees, as opposed to building them to NASA-provided specifications for NASA employees to operate. That may ultimately turn out to be a very significant shift, but as of today, it's still a relatively small one.

Until there is a private customer with pockets as deep as the government, and who is willing to spend huge sums just to get his name into history and maybe science textbooks, then you have two choices: Government involvement in space exploration, or no space exploration at all.
 
You do realize that patents don't apply, space is considered "common property" that no one can own. The same goes for the moon, nobody can claim it legally.

If nobody can claim in, nobody can exercise sovereignty over it to enforce said treaties.
 
I am excited by the fact that we are entering the dawn of commercial space flight. I am excited to see company's such as Siera nevada that are developing vehicles for manned space flight.

Are they making the vehicles out of old.....

attachment.php


Is this their concept vehicle?

attachment.php
 

Attachments

  • sierra-nevada-pale-ale-usa-copy4.jpg
    sierra-nevada-pale-ale-usa-copy4.jpg
    81.5 KB · Views: 98
  • SuperStock_4102-12300.jpg
    SuperStock_4102-12300.jpg
    120.5 KB · Views: 98
And I fear that after the first major mishap (or worse, mishap involving the ISS), gov't oversight/regulation will become so oppressive, no private enterprise will be able to operate within the rules and still turn a profit.

I just don't think the STS-1 flag will be retrieved from the ISS by any crew in my lifetime.
 
And I fear that after the first major mishap (or worse, mishap involving the ISS), gov't oversight/regulation will become so oppressive, no private enterprise will be able to operate within the rules and still turn a profit.
That may be.

But equally devastating will be the private investors beating a hasty retreat because they get scared, and the customers shying away from a "risky" launch vehicle.

Space flight is hard. You can blame physics for that, not the government.

To date, it's only been government that's had the resources and perseverance to develop programs (not just vehicles, but reasons to have such vehicles) involving humans in space, or probes outside of earth orbit.

As of today, private industry still has neither.
 
I just don't think the STS-1 flag will be retrieved from the ISS by any crew in my lifetime.
You do realize that there will still be crews coming and going to the ISS? The end of the shuttle is not the end of manned space. The ISS will continue to be supplied with crew and consumables by the Russian program. Yes, even Americans will continue to get to the ISS via a Russian rocket. Like it has been for several years now.

The Space Shuttle was a failure. It was supposed to be flying about once a week. At best I think it made 9 flights in one year. The cost to launch was enormous and it never became commercially viable. That we held on to it so long limited innovation for cheaper, more reliable platforms.

I loved the space shuttle, I worked on the program in the early 1980s and was there for several of the first launches including STS-1. I was on board the STS-2 when it was being prepped on the launch pad and I have pieces of the SRB from STS-3 as souvenirs. It was a great 'feel good' program. But it was a huge money and time suck for NASA, ultimately setting us behind in space. Nixon's folly is truly what the space shuttle program is and was. I am glad to see it go and I hope we can get the other programs moving ahead now. The reality of our budget situation is such that I doubt that there will be any public willingness to pump billions into space. Heck, you cannot even get people to support programs that give them direct benefits like Medicare!
 
You do realize that patents don't apply, space is considered "common property" that no one can own. The same goes for the moon, nobody can claim it legally.
Patents have nothing to do with any of it. We, as humans, would benefit greatly if they were abolished on Earth. Businesses and commerce are going to thrive if the rent-seeking inherent in patents were removed. There was never any evidence that patents enhanced innovation.

Property is a problem, but it's not like any conventional mining companies own the minerals they are extracting either.

I agree that the absolute liability is bull**** though. There is move afoot to have that changed, modelled on the maritime law.
 
Patents have nothing to do with any of it. We, as humans, would benefit greatly if they were abolished on Earth. Businesses and commerce are going to thrive if the rent-seeking inherent in patents were removed. There was never any evidence that patents enhanced innovation.

Property is a problem, but it's not like any conventional mining companies own the minerals they are extracting either.

I agree that the absolute liability is bull**** though. There is move afoot to have that changed, modelled on the maritime law.
Patents protect research investment. Getting rid of them is not a good solution. Just look at what happens in China. Companies spend tons of money on research and then, as we see in China, place there just steal that property and profit from it without the original inventors getting any benefit. If a system like that is made global why would anyone really want to invent new things? They would just be stolen. Better spend your time waiting for someone else to invent something and then just steal the idea.

The idea of intellectual property was important enough of an idea that in this nation it was included in the Constitution.
 
But equally devastating will be the private investors beating a hasty retreat because they get scared, and the customers shying away from a "risky" launch vehicle.
They only beat the hasty retreat under the weight of liability payments. Look how many people die every year while riding motorcycles, jumping with parachutes, and scaling mountains, and nobody is beating any hasty retreats.

Space flight is hard. You can blame physics for that, not the government.
These words are meaningless blabbering. How do you measure "hardness"? And it's the government made access to space as expensive as it is now, not physics.

To date, it's only been government that's had the resources and perseverance to develop programs (not just vehicles, but reasons to have such vehicles) involving humans in space, or probes outside of earth orbit.

As of today, private industry still has neither.
Well, that's fine. First we develop the cislunar space and then you'll repeat the same mantra about "Earth-Mars axis" or whatever is the boundary where private industry has not yet conquered.

As for "preservance" of the government, that's just laughable. Government is ridiculously fickle. It never can carry out a program that takes longer than one election cycle. But private investments can carry out long programs.
 
Patents protect research investment. Getting rid of them is not a good solution. Just look at what happens in China. Companies spend tons of money on research and then, as we see in China, place there just steal that property and profit from it without the original inventors getting any benefit. If a system like that is made global why would anyone really want to invent new things? They would just be stolen. Better spend your time waiting for someone else to invent something and then just steal the idea.
This is a bogus argument in that the original inventors still receive the benefit, even in China. They do not receive the benefit of government-backed rent-seeking, is all. But that is still enough to drive innovation.

If we get serious here for a second instead of just trying to shout each other down with fallacious arguments predicting the end of invention if patents are abolished and the like, we'll find that the real problem with abolishing the patents immediately is the resulting dislocation in the industries that have the attendant rent-seeking built into the cost structure. Once the rent is removed, the incumbents will collapse, and the benefit they provide to the consumer may not be immediately replaced by the new entrants. The prime example of such industry is the Big Pharma. Frankly an argument can be made that the cost per patent (per a patent bundle per drug actually) is already unsustainable there, and thus a reform is desperately needed anyway, but for now I would like to focus on the way the cost per patent stacks across the industries. Next down are industries that patent designs, e.g. automotive industries. And finally there are industries where cost per patent is trivial. Typically the software industry is the example of businesses being ravaged by Myrhvold-like patent trolls, and even respectable companies having no shame. I do not think any honest man can stay with a straight face that patents contributed to iPod success, considering all the knock-offs, or that Apple precluding HTC from selling Android phones in America helps Apple to finance future iPhones.

Basically the problem is, nobody except perhaps a few drug researchers innovate in expectation of patent-protected payoff. Everyone else innovate despite patents. The patent picture is so bleak that talk about splitting the pie is afoot, usually coming from the software people. They know that they cannot knock the whole patent scam down, but they are hurt so bad that they try to establish that software is unpatentable at least. As far as I know, this did not play too well in legislatures and courts. There is a certain slippery slope problem built right into any move like that. Once software industry is free from the patent yoke, car designers may like it too, and so on.

I looked at the upsides and downsides and decided for myself that the civilization would benefit from patents abolished period. Naturally you may disagree.

The idea of intellectual property was important enough of an idea that in this nation it was included in the Constitution.
So, the founders did not know how destructive patents are going to be in 21-st century. They did not even have perpetual copyright back then either.
 
This is a bogus argument in that the original inventors still receive the benefit, even in China.
When someone steals your ideas, market equipment based on your IP without paying any licensing fee then tell me how one receives a benefit? Do you define aa benefit as a warm fuzzy feeling form know that people liked what you invented, because you are not getting any money for your hardwork.


They do not receive the benefit of government-backed rent-seeking, is all. But that is still enough to drive innovation.
Huh? Do you unerstand patents and IP? The government only issues a legal recognition that you invented something first, they provide a means to recoup damages. It is not 'rent.'

If we get serious here for a second
I would welcome seriousness. So far your comments on IP have been a great comedic break.

instead of just trying to shout each other down with fallacious arguments predicting the end of invention if patents are abolished and the like, we'll find that the real problem with abolishing the patents immediately is the resulting dislocation in the industries that have the attendant rent-seeking built into the cost structure. Once the rent is removed, the incumbents will collapse, and the benefit they provide to the consumer may not be immediately replaced by the new entrants. The prime example of such industry is the Big Pharma. Frankly an argument can be made that the cost per patent (per a patent bundle per drug actually) is already unsustainable there, and thus a reform is desperately needed anyway, but for now I would like to focus on the way the cost per patent stacks across the industries. Next down are industries that patent designs, e.g. automotive industries. And finally there are industries where cost per patent is trivial. Typically the software industry is the example of businesses being ravaged by Myrhvold-like patent trolls, and even respectable companies having no shame. I do not think any honest man can stay with a straight face that patents contributed to iPod success, considering all the knock-offs, or that Apple precluding HTC from selling Android phones in America helps Apple to finance future iPhones.
So your arguement, which seems very short on any facts BTW, is that when HTC sells an Andriod product that causes someone to also by an iPhone ? :loco:

As for iPod and patents. Sure there were others. But the design patents protected Apple from having people make knock off and istead kept the most desirable features for themselves making people want to by an iPod say instead of a Zune.

I looked at the upsides and downsides and decided for myself that the civilization would benefit from patents abolished period. Naturally you may disagree.
As does most of the world hence why no one is rushing out to abolish patents. I did some research for a paper that I wrote not too long ago about open source and patents in pharma. What I found was that each system ended up feeding the other and that open source benefited more in areas where patents existed as did the vis versa as companies wanted to stay ahead of the open source movement in order to provide more value for their products.


So, the founders did not know how destructive patents are going to be in 21-st century. They did not even have perpetual copyright back then either.
Actually they knew them to be, and has history has proven, very valuable to business and innovation.
 
When someone steals your ideas, market equipment based on your IP without paying any licensing fee then tell me how one receives a benefit? Do you define aa benefit as a warm fuzzy feeling form know that people liked what you invented, because you are not getting any money for your hardwork.

You're exactly right. Innovation costs money. That's why it's called intellectual PROPERTY, and why some companies want to steal inventors' ideas without paying for them. Patents help the innovators protect those property rights, profit from them.

Did anyone see the fake Apple store in China? http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/21/us-china-apple-fake-idUSTRE76K1SU20110721 Can zaitcev tell us how Apple profits from that?

Some companies try to protect those property rights through trade secrets, without going through the patent process, and often do so at their own peril.

Now, back to manned spaceflight!
 
They only beat the hasty retreat under the weight of liability payments. Look how many people die every year while riding motorcycles, jumping with parachutes, and scaling mountains, and nobody is beating any hasty retreats.
That's because people continue to buy boatloads of motorcycles and mountain climbing equipment. The market for rocket launches is much smaller, and it might shock you, but customers do consider the number of launch failures before selecting a launch service provider. Investors happen to know this.

These words are meaningless blabbering. How do you measure "hardness"? And it's the government made access to space as expensive as it is now, not physics.
Really? Which government? Why aren't there private companies in Europe or Asia or anywhere else just launching things willy-nilly into space? Did all those governments make it hard?

As for "preservance" of the government, that's just laughable. Government is ridiculously fickle. It never can carry out a program that takes longer than one election cycle. But private investments can carry out long programs.
Please give me an example of *any* private space enterprise that is comparable to these government accomplishments: the Apollo program (1961-1975), the development and operation of the Space Shuttle (over 40 years), the development, construction, and ongoing operation of the International Space Station (30+ years). Too big / not fair? How 'bout the Pioneer probes (25+ years), the Voyager probes (30+ years), the several recent Mars missions (20+ years), or the Hubble telescope (well over 20 years)? And those are just the US government. The USSR/Russia, Japan, India, and groups of European nations have also accomplished large programs.

I look forward to seeing your list of comparable private space accomplishments.
 
These words are meaningless blabbering. How do you measure "hardness"? And it's the government made access to space as expensive as it is now, not physics.
If that were true, why haven't there been dozens of low-cost space transportation businesses formed in third-world countries? "Flags of Convenience" are nothing new; why haven't they enabled private space transport? The only active launch site in a third-world country is owned by the French, and the only reason it's there is to take advantage of its equatorial location.

Access to space *is* fairly easy. All it needs is a big enough rocket. *USABLE* access to space, especially carrying humans, is not easy...and it's physics that's the problem, not regulations.

Companies like Virgin Galactic are doing the easiest bit... going vertical to 100 km so passengers can claim to have reached space. Big rocket, sealed can, tank of air. However, USABLE access to space requires longer duration flight. By present technology, that means orbit. What works to bring Spaceship 2 in at Mach 5 won't work at Mach 25. Providing air to passengers for twenty minutes is different from providing air for twenty hours. What won't heat up too much in twenty minutes may get well too hot in twenty hours.

It's ironic to note that passengers on Spaceship 2 et al won't be able to join the international astronaut's association. It requires completion of at least one orbit.
 
Gotta make cuts somewhere! We can't afford it anymore.

As long as money is the ONLY thing of any importance, why do anything? Everything is a waste of money. Just create a civilization of businesses that feed off each other's money plus a small menial labor support operation and all is good in the world. One really good financial programmer plus an automated computer repair operation could end the need for costly humans in this world. Fiscal operating efficiency could approach 99% easily.
 
Last edited:
Spoken by someone that hasn't read the moon treaty we signed, or the myriad of other space related treaties.

You do realize that patents don't apply, space is considered "common property" that no one can own. The same goes for the moon, nobody can claim it legally.

I agree with the sentiment you have, but we have about a dozen treaties in place that pretty much make anything other than pleasure flights unworkable. You don't even want to know the liability rules...

Unless these suddenly changed, that is.

I didn't sign a treaty. If I had billions (and billions) and I build a ship to go to the moon, I'm damn well claiming it to be mine and putting an EdFredia flag on it.
 
As long as money is the ONLY thing of any importance, why do anything? Everything is a waste of money. Just create a civilization of businesses that feed off each other's money plus a small menial labor support operation and all is good in the world. One really good financial programmer plus an automated computer repair operation could end the need for costly humans in this world. Fiscal operating efficiency could approach 99% easily.
Now you're talking! Give that man a cup of tea in a patriotic flag mug!
 
Companies like Virgin Galactic are doing the easiest bit... going vertical to 100 km so passengers can claim to have reached space. Big rocket, sealed can, tank of air. However, USABLE access to space requires longer duration flight. By present technology, that means orbit. What works to bring Spaceship 2 in at Mach 5 won't work at Mach 25. Providing air to passengers for twenty minutes is different from providing air for twenty hours. What won't heat up too much in twenty minutes may get well too hot in twenty hours.
You can put this strawman away, because Virgin Galactic are not relevant to the access to space in the near term. How about we discuss Boeing CST-100. You know, the low-cost commercial entry from the same guys who built the space station. Think they do not know how manage a thermal balance of a manned spacecraft in LEO?
 
You can put this strawman away, because Virgin Galactic are not relevant to the access to space in the near term. How about we discuss Boeing CST-100. You know, the low-cost commercial entry from the same guys who built the space station. Think they do not know how manage a thermal balance of a manned spacecraft in LEO?
Considering I work for the space side of Boeing, and work directly with some of the guys who solve these sorts of thermal problems, I think they'll find a solution.

But you said the problem was regulations, not engineering. Explain how the current regulations impact Boeing's development of the CST-100.

Ron Wanttaja
 
You can put this strawman away, because Virgin Galactic are not relevant to the access to space in the near term. How about we discuss Boeing CST-100. You know, the low-cost commercial entry from the same guys who built the space station. Think they do not know how manage a thermal balance of a manned spacecraft in LEO?
The CST-100 that Boeing is floating as a contender for crew transport to ISS under NASA's CCDev initiative? Sure, they know how to build spacecraft.

How did they come to have such expertise? Because they've been building rockets and spacecraft under government contracts for decades.

Damn government...getting in the way of private enterprise!! Boy, if they'd just step aside, we'd...er, we'd...um.... Hmm....
 
I understood shuttle reusability was the problem. Apparently every turnaround cost as much as an expendable launch vehicle.

I don't know how much of it was civil service people competing with commercial launch vehicle providers.

Did the shuttle even do polar orbits?
 
I understood shuttle reusability was the problem.
Not sure what "problem" you're referring to. If you're trying to capture why the shuttle is being retired, it's unrealistic to think that can be accurately summed up in one word.

Apparently every turnaround cost as much as an expendable launch vehicle.
Maybe, but what's the significance of that comparison? It also costs more to drive a bus across town than it does a passenger car. Should I draw some sort of conclusion from that?

Did the shuttle even do polar orbits?
Originally, it was intended to also be launched from Vandenberg, which would have allowed polar launches. After Challenger, those plans were cancelled. So?
 
Wasn't that the original objective, a reusable manned space vehicle?
 
Um, yes. And for 30 years, that's exactly what it was.
 
Um, yes. And for 30 years, that's exactly what it was.

And after 30 years, we're back to...Soyus.
And a glorified watered down version of Apollo...if we can ever get it flying.
 
I understood shuttle reusability was the problem. Apparently every turnaround cost as much as an expendable launch vehicle.

I don't know how much of it was civil service people competing with commercial launch vehicle providers.

Did the shuttle even do polar orbits?

It was not as reusable as originally planned. It could be argued that insufficient funding and unrealistic program demands forced NASA into slapping a couple of SRBs on it rather than waiting for reusable engines with sufficient thrust. It was more complicated than that, but the point still stands wrt funding and schedule.
 
How did they come to have such expertise? Because they've been building rockets and spacecraft under government contracts for decades.
The most wasteful way to build expertise, congrats.
 
The most wasteful way to build expertise, congrats.
:confused: Where the heck are any comparable customers?

My point was that without the government, there's no guarantee we'd have ever gotten past Goddard working in his backyard.

Like it or not, there's no one else demanding the heavy lift vehicles and complicated reusable spacecraft that the US has developed except the government. No one else is demanding complicated trajectory design and sophisticated navigation sensors and techniques except the government. The government's requirements drove the pioneering of in-orbit rendezvous techniques.

"Efficient" or not, there is no one else driving those technologies. Government is not in the way...they're pushing and pulling, and in the process creating opportunities for the Boeings and the Hughses and the Lockheeds and the Rockwells (who are all now Boeing) to develop the expertise that can lead to commercial opportunities.

And whether you believe it or not, startups like SpaceX aren't starting from a blank piece of paper. They're benefiting from all that pioneering work driven by the government over the past 50 years. You might hate that it's true, but that doesn't change the facts.
 
Last edited:
Like it or not, there's no one else demanding the heavy lift vehicles and complicated reusable spacecraft that the US has developed except the government.
We would've already had a bas on the Moon if U.S. Government had not set us on the path of the heavy lift. The heavy lift made us to pee away 50 years in the development of space. It also won us the race of the Moon, mind. But don't try to pretend that heavy lift is in any way necessary for the development of space. Now of course Mr. Musk may disagree, because has a heavy lift to sell. And so do Senrs Hatch, Nelson, and Shelby, because they looooove government wasting untold billions on the heavy lift in their districts.

No one else is demanding complicated trajectory design and sophisticated navigation sensors and techniques except the government. The government's requirements drove the pioneering of in-orbit rendezvous techniques.
Oh please. We even have private deep space comm and tracking network now - despite the unfair competition from the government. "Pioneering" techniques, is this something that even Chineese do now? Also, where is my boom docking? Oh right, not being developed by the government, but one guy in his garage in Colorado.

And whether you believe it or not, startups like SpaceX aren't starting from a blank piece of paper. They're benefiting from all that pioneering work driven by the government over the past 50 years. You might hate that it's true, but that doesn't change the facts.
What does matter that government did "pioneering" work that saddled us with ballistic missile cost structure? Am I supposed to be thankful for that? Your basic fallacy here is: government did X first (in its typical wasteful way), therefore government must continue doing X to the exclusion of the private sector. Even Congress understood how fallacious that was, that's why we have the Space Act (which NASA wilfully violates at every turn; they even announced that CCDev is going to move from SA procurement to FAR (that's A as in Acquisition, not Aviation)).
 
Back
Top