Is the bottom going to fall out of the used GA market?

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Tummler

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Tummler
There seems to be numerous factors working against GA: skyrocketing operating costs; decreasing numbers of licensed pilots; closing airports; and the ever present threat of banning LL gas. At what point does the used plane market collapse?
 
I think it just gradually goes away as opposed to a collapse. That is what appears to be happening now to some extent. Don't need all those airplanes unless there are pilots with enough money to fly them!
 
Shepherd said:
I hope so.
I've got my eye on a couple of different planes.....
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So do I! I just don't want to be straddling the collapse, i.e., buy on one side and be faced with owning and selling on the other side.
 
I have been watching Debonair prices slowly decline. I thought I got a good deal last year, but I'm thinking of selling before it gets any worse.
 
If you keep watching the aging fleet stuff sure, the market isn't getting any better. Same thing with cars, do you watch the market for 1998 Taurus? How about a 1982 Honada Accord? Have you noticed how the prices are coming down for cars that are not taken care of?

My hats off to owners that lovingly keep old iron in the air, but to see a dead 150 on the ramp doesn't mean much to me. Scrap it out and build another one, fly something newer. Its a machine with a useful life. :dunno:

Several areas in experimentals have gained value in the last year. RV-12, RV-8 to name a few. This is where the growth in GA is, for now anyway.
 
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Tummler said:
There seems to be numerous factors working against GA: skyrocketing operating costs; decreasing numbers of licensed pilots; closing airports; and the ever present threat of banning LL gas. At what point does the used plane market collapse?
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Up and down cycles in the aviation and the aerospace industry are nothing new. Been going on forever and will continue to do so. Defeatist attitudes are probably the worst enemy we have. ;)
 
The attrition rate of planes, accidents, neglect death, matches the declining pilot population. Everything is in perfect balance.:D
I gotta agree with Geico that most of the regular old GA stuff deserves to die. Throw public airports in the same dumpster. If we didn't have junky old cheap airplanes and crap public airports Muricans might actually build cool flying stuff. Just like when aviation was growing.
 
ClimbnSink said:
The attrition rate of planes, accidents, neglect death, matches the declining pilot population. Everything is in perfect balance.:D
I gotta agree with Geico that most of the regular old GA stuff deserves to die. Throw public airports in the same dumpster. If we didn't have junky old cheap airplanes and crap public airports Muricans might actually build cool flying stuff. Just like when aviation was growing.
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This is what "Muricans" don't see. Have you guys been to SnF, Sebring, OSH to see what aircraft are being produced in the EU? Sport Cruiser, TL Sting, Pantera, Sinus, Virus, Cavalon, and on and on?

We don't have the capacity to design and build small planes under the burdensome certified regulations here. This is why sport pilot and experimentals are thriving. Less regulations and more innovation, and more fun!

The SLSA RV-12 is certainly the exception to the rule as the regulations for LSA have been a breath of fresh air. They are being made in "Murica".
 
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Just take a good look at the average age of attendees at Oshkosh or Sun 'n' Fun.

Most will no longer be flying in a decade or two, and young people with the same passion for aviation are few and far between.

As an aside, the same demographics were in evidence at an RV show we attended in Tampa in January.

Dwindling demand can only have one long term effect on any market.
 
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Geico266 said:
This is what "Muricans" don't see. Have you guys been to SnF, Sebring, OSH to see what aircraft are being produced in the EU? Sport Cruiser, TL Sting, Pantera, Sinus, Virus, Cavalon, and on and on?

We don't have the capacity to design and build small planes under the burdensome certified regulations here. This is why sport pilot and experimentals are thriving. Less regulations and more innovation, and more fun!

The SLSA RV-12 is certainly the exception to the rule as the regulations for LSA have been a breath of fresh air. They are being made in "Murica".
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EU ( Europe) has "less" regulation of aviation then the US????:no:
 
FastEddieB said:
Most will no longer be flying in a decade or two, and young people with the same passion for aviation are few and far between.
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Not just aviation. Youth today aren't really into vehicles of any kind. Why drive/travel when you can text, tweet, facebook, facetime, skype...
 
mnewb1 said:
EU ( Europe) has "less" regulation of aviation then the US????:no:
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How are they designing and producing more and better GA aircraft? More regulation?

Why isn't America leading the industry any longer?

Why is experimental the fastest growing segment of piston GA?
 
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Geico266 said:
How are they design and producing more and better GA aircraft? More regulation?
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Well you tell me, I think the flaw is in your basic assumption that, " they are doing a better job designing, producing new, interesting airplane, therefore, they MUST not have more regulations then the US, because we all know that it's REGULATION that destroys innovation".

I don't know the answer, but the fact is they have more regulation of GA then the US does.... go to England and pull your airplane out for a quick VFR flight for a £100 hamburger....you have to file a flight plan and pay fees for the take-off, landing, and flight plan...
 
Bill Jennings said:
Not just aviation. Youth today aren't really into vehicles of any kind. Why drive/travel when you can text, tweet, facebook, facetime, skype...
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I don't think the blame lies with technology. I think kids don't drive because it is friggin expensive(insurance, not cars) and 'regulation' bunch of discriminatory no phone rules all the way up to 19, plus the kids are revenue targets from traffic tickets. I'd be happy if I could never drive again.
 
mnewb1 said:
Well you tell me, I think the flaw is in your basic assumption that, " they are doing a better job designing, producing new, interesting airplane, therefore, they MUST not have more regulations then the US, because we all know that it's REGULATION that destroys innovation".

I don't know the answer, but the fact is they have more regulation of GA then the US does.... go to England and pull your airplane out for a quick VFR flight for a £100 hamburger....you have to file a flight plan and pay fees for the take-off, landing, and flight plan...
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They probably have more regulation, what they lack is piles of junky old airplanes to feed the demand/be competition for new stuff.
 
The issue is really cost. Wages have not kept up with inflation and in many cases people are making less than they did 10 or more years ago due layoffs and having to get back into the work place. Of course much of this depends on what you do and where you live.

When I was a kid my dad bought me a functional car for $525 my insurance for a year was a little more than that and I think minimum wage was $3.35.

In order for my son to buy a car that was equivalent to what I had would cost 2-3000 and the insurance would be $1200 a year. Minimum wage here just hit $8. So while the car has increased 4-5X and insurance has doubled the wage he can earn has simply doubled and the cost of gas has increased 3-4X.

I am just getting back into flying and admitedly the state of GA is a bit discouraging. Just trying to find a 172 to fly around here was difficult and still a 45 minute drive. I am hoping that at some point I can find 2 other people to partner with in a simple Champ, CUB, Colt or Tri-pacer in the hopes of getting the hourly rate down to something reasonable. My mission is boring holes in the sky and smashing bugs on nice VFR days hitting the occasional breakfast and airshow.
 
ClimbnSink said:
I'd be happy if I could never drive again.
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We are building a house downtown in an up and coming neighborhood. I will be trading an hour+ per day in the car for a 6mi rountrip bicycle ride. My wife's commute will be similarly reduced. Also, there is a prethora restaurants, bakerys, shops and bars within a 10min walk of our new home, and all of downtown as well as 15+ miles of greenways will be easily bikeable.

We can't wait! I hate wasting lifetime sitting in traffic. Walk and bike more, drive less!
 
DC34ME said:
I have been watching Debonair prices slowly decline. I thought I got a good deal last year, but I'm thinking of selling before it gets any worse.
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Hmm? Did you buy an airplane to flip, or to fly? Why think of selling? (I'm assuming you like flying it)
 
mnewb1 said:
Well you tell me, I think the flaw is in your basic assumption that, " they are doing a better job designing, producing new, interesting airplane, therefore, they MUST not have more regulations then the US, because we all know that it's REGULATION that destroys innovation".

I don't know the answer, but the fact is they have more regulation of GA then the US does.... go to England and pull your airplane out for a quick VFR flight for a £100 hamburger....you have to file a flight plan and pay fees for the take-off, landing, and flight plan...
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The regulations I am talking about are to design and BUILD aircraft. Clearly, the regulations in EU are not as confining as here, or we would have planes that could compete.
 
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FastEddieB said:
Just take a good look at the average age of attendees at Oshkosh or Sun 'n' Fun.

Most will no longer be flying in a decade or two, and young people with the same passion for aviation are few and far between.
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As DFH65 said, I believe that has as much to do with cost as it does with passion. I was sneaking into town on my bike when I was 5 years-old buying balsa gliders, by 4th grade I was flying U-control. By 8th grade RC. I didn't buy a real plane (if you consider a 172 a real plane ;) ) and start flying until I was in my 40s.

Flying is a very serious hobby that can't be entered into half-assed since it takes both a dedication of time and money. A young adult, raising kids, paying a mortgage, etc and flying don't mix well. So, when a lot of pilots didn't start flying until they're in their 40s, sure, the average age at events is going to be high.

Bill Jennings said:
Not just aviation. Youth today aren't really into vehicles of any kind.
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Yeah, I've experienced that too and, honestly, our planet will be forever grateful. It's nice to see a generation that isn't as extravagantly wasteful as mine is/was.
 
FastEddieB said:
Just take a good look at the average age of attendees at Oshkosh or Sun 'n' Fun.

Most will no longer be flying in a decade or two, and young people with the same passion for aviation are few and far between.

As an aside, the same demographics were in evidence at an RV show we attended in Tampa in January.

Dwindling demand can only have one long term effect on any market.
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The young ones with the resources to operate an aircraft typically don't have the time to take a week off and sit in a lawn chair in Lakeland. I find the shows painfully boring. Most everyone I know that owns a plane and flys are under 40. The only ones I know of that will be attending SnF this year are over 40.
 
bartmc said:
The young ones with the resources to operate an aircraft typically don't have the time to take a week off and sit in a lawn chair in Lakeland. I find the shows painfully boring. Most everyone I know that owns a plane and flys are under 40. The only ones I know of that will be attending SnF this year are over 40.
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Makes sense

I fly and am 37 and can't take that much time off for lengthy events.
even with vacation from work, the kids have school, T-ball practice, etc

When they are out of the house many years from now, I hope to go to a lot of events.

For now I am limited to the weekend / day trips.
 
Avweb seems to think aircraft sales are on-the way up. They say sun n fun should be great this year ,for the aircraft manufacturers.
 
Not every plane is worth saving. We should scrap a lot more planes and bring the fleet up to at least the 80's.;) Hopefully the new certification rules for Part 23 will make it easier for new aircraft and cheaper aircraft to entrée the market.
 
bartmc said:
The young ones with the resources to operate an aircraft typically don't have the time to take a week off and sit in a lawn chair in Lakeland. I find the shows painfully boring. Most everyone I know that owns a plane and flys are under 40. The only ones I know of that will be attending SnF this year are over 40.
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Count me in too. 32, wife, one kid. We fly that piper Arrow circa 400NM. It's perfect for what we do. But again it's a weekend or holiday break thing only these days.

My family wouldn't enjoy going to Oshkosh or Sun n Fun. Nor do we have the time to lounge in a lawnchair for a week looking at things we will never be able to afford to purchase. The joy of this thing is actually being able to make recreational/destination flying a reality, which is why the availability of airplanes like my Arrow for what I purchased it for is essential to our lifestyle.

As to future pricing, I'm not worried about it. I sold the C150 for 2K less than I bought it for, the PA-28-161 for 3.5K less than I bought it for. Boo freggin hoo. A sheer favor done to me considering how liquid the transactions were time wise.
 
stratobee said:
We should scrap a lot more planes and bring the fleet up to at least the 80's.;).
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Yeah, I agree, my '58 model with only 3200 hours, a tight airframe (zero smoking rivets), absolutely no corrosion and about 85% showroom condition should be tossed in the scrap yard tomorrow. :rolleyes2:
 
On the other hand, somebody is buing all those Carbon Cubs for $230k. Retirees still have the money.
 
I know several people who have bought or are looking to buy in the next few months. All experimentals. :dunno:
 
timwinters said:
Yeah, I agree, my '58 model with only 3200 hours, a tight airframe (zero smoking rivets), absolutely no corrosion and about 85% showroom condition should be tossed in the scrap yard tomorrow. :rolleyes2:
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Sounds like a nice bird. Younger than I am! :lol:

Wait, someone might think I'm too old to fly also. :nono:
 
Geico266 said:
I know several people who have bought or are looking to buy in the next few months. All experimentals. :dunno:
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RV prices especially, have been going up lately too.
2 Years ago when I bought my RV-6 I thought I paid about $5K too much for it, according to what similar RV-6s were fetching on the market back then, but mine was in pristine condition, with excellent build quality, and had only 250 hours on the hobbs, plus I personally know the builder and watched the plane being built. Now it's got over 400 hours on it and I've been offered $10K more than I paid for it if I wanted to sell it today... that's really tempting, but I think I'd rather keep and fly the plane for a while longer while I can still manage to do it.
 
ClimbnSink said:
I gotta agree with Geico that most of the regular old GA stuff deserves to die. Throw public airports in the same dumpster.
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Umm... Most airports with paved runways are public. Get rid of all the public airports, you won't have anywhere for the airplanes to go, nor any place to train new pilots.
 
Neal Howard said:
RV prices especially, have been going up lately too.
2 Years ago when I bought my RV-6 I thought I paid about $5K too much for it, according to what similar RV-6s were fetching on the market back then, but mine was in pristine condition, with excellent build quality, and had only 250 hours on the hobbs, plus I personally know the builder and watched the plane being built. Now it's got over 400 hours on it and I've been offered $10K more than I paid for it if I wanted to sell it today... that's really tempting, but I think I'd rather keep and fly the plane for a while longer while I can still manage to do it.
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Flying RV-12s have gone up $10K in a year due to SLSA coming out at $120K flying.

RV-8's are really hot also. I just bought mine a few months ago and could sell it for $10K more than I paid.
 
Geico266 said:
How are they designing and producing more and better GA aircraft? More regulation?
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You're assuming that regulation is the sole reason we're not building as many planes. Big assumption.

EU aviation is highly regulated, but they don't have the litigious society we do, so the liability costs are way lower. Tort reform would make a major difference for us.

Or are you predicting the second coming of GA after the part 23 rewrite?
 
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