Housing market gone bust?

ApacheBob

Cleared for Takeoff
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ApacheBob
A neighbor of mine recently lowered the asking price of his house from $650,000 to $450,000.:hairraise:
That's why I am glad that I have my money tied up in an investment that will only increase in value...a 1957 Piper Apache!:blueplane:
ApacheBob
 
ApacheBob said:
A neighbor of mine recently lowered the asking price of his house from $650,000 to $450,000.:hairraise:
That's why I am glad that I have my money tied up in an investment that will only increase in value...a 1957 Piper Apache!:blueplane:
ApacheBob

Where are you located? Super hot markets on each coast will see the biggest price adjustment. Just because he was asking $650K doesn't mean it was a realistic asking price. What did he pay for the house and when?

BTW. Long term interest rates still very low and trending down. That means lower mortgage rates and more housing demand. Look for this Spring to be a potentially decent housing market.
 
ApacheBob said:
A neighbor of mine recently lowered the asking price of his house from $650,000 to $450,000.:hairraise:
That's why I am glad that I have my money tied up in an investment that will only increase in value...a 1957 Piper Apache!:blueplane:
ApacheBob

A friend of mine just sold a property for $2 million that he paid $375K for less than ten years ago.
 
I sold a commercial property for a 60k profit. sitting on it for 6 months. not bad. But our housing market hit its peak about a year ago. It is on a downhill slide now. Too many people flooded the market with properties and the price was bound to drop.
 
Re: Housing market gone bust? NA

It is not just price alone. I was told that in San Diego, it is now twice as expensive to own a home than it is to rent an equivalent home. (This is relatively current information but I can't vouch for it being accurate to the minute). Consequently, rental demand is strong. Prices for rental apartment complexes, already high, look to be headed higher on the basis of soaring rents.

In San Diego, only 10% of the households can afford to buy the median priced house.

These stats are unsustainable.

-Skip
 
ApacheBob said:
A neighbor of mine recently lowered the asking price of his house from $650,000 to $450,000.:hairraise:
That's why I am glad that I have my money tied up in an investment that will only increase in value...a 1957 Piper Apache!:blueplane:
ApacheBob
Crusty said airplane values are down, too.
 
Psst, the sky is falling, we're all gonna' die. Meanwhile, I continue to see an annual 19-22% increase in SFRs.
 
Re: Housing market gone bust? NA

Skip Miller said:
It is not just price alone. I was told that in San Diego, it is now twice as expensive to own a home than it is to rent an equivalent home. (This is relatively current information but I can't vouch for it being accurate to the minute). Consequently, rental demand is strong.

-Skip

How does that work?
 
Re: Housing market gone bust? NA

Dave Krall CFII said:
How does that work?

If you can't afford to buy, you rent (or move in with your parents).

Or did I misunderstand your question?

-Skip
 
Re: Housing market gone bust? NA

Skip Miller said:
If you can't afford to buy, you rent (or move in with your parents).

Or did I misunderstand your question?

-Skip

I don't see how owners could afford to rent places out for 1/2 of their costs, at least for very long.
 
Re: Housing market gone bust? NA

Dave Krall CFII said:
I don't see how owners could afford to rent places out for 1/2 of their costs, at least for very long.

I don't know what he's saying either, but if I speculate its probably this:

The monthly rental cost is half of what a monthly mortgage payment would be with 100% financing on a 30 year loan, or maybe even interest only loan. I don't know if that's true or not, just guessing on what the poster meant.
 
Well, of course, the housing market isn't one market. Very different in various locations. We saw heavy speculator activity in some markets: some folks didn't care what they paid because they could flip it for more--great while it lasted.

In some markets now, new home builders can't build a home and sell it for cost--speculators have dumped homes back on the market for less than the cost to build a new one.


Here in Dallas, it's much tamer. What is really suffering is the entry level and first time move up home (150,000 to 200,000 range). These builders had very aggressive lending programs and drew a lot of renters into homes. Adjustable rate mortage rates have increased, and some folks are getting bills they didn't expect or are having another kind of financial set back. We had the highest foreclosure rate since the late 80s here last month. But these weren't in the good locations (in general) or from folks that had built up much equity in the home. Many folks don't understand, with some of these mortages, one could have negative equity.

I've been saying for sometime things were overheated. We had land speculators paying prices a user couldn't afford. That usually doesn't last long. We had speculators here paying the same price for a piece of land that had utilities available as one that didn't--that usually doesn't work very long.

Anyway, I have a subdivision doing great, a piece of land I've been offered a large profit on and one place where existing lots just aren't selling (we own these free and clear). All depends on where you are, what the supply and demand is and how much equity one has in. The folks that were speculating in secondary locations without much equity seem to be the most vulnerable.

Best,

Dave
 
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Re: Housing market gone bust? NA

Dave Krall CFII said:
I don't see how owners could afford to rent places out for 1/2 of their costs, at least for very long.

I think the case may be the buyer bought the property outright and is renting it at below market value, just like everything else in CA.
 
Re: Housing market gone bust? NA

Anthony said:
I don't know what he's saying either, but if I speculate its probably this:

The monthly rental cost is half of what a monthly mortgage payment would be with 100% financing on a 30 year loan, or maybe even interest only loan. I don't know if that's true or not, just guessing on what the poster meant.
Sorry for the confusion. You are right.

-Skip
 
That is a good deal Bob. If it was not such a far comute for me I might have to take a look at that and then maybe would have change left from my dollar to buy into an Apache ;-)
 
From 3Q05 to 3Q06, our region (Chicago) saw close to 30% drop in revenues and a mid-20% drop in velocity of new home sales.

Speculators and investors did a pretty good job of flooding the marketplace with both land and homes (at artificially inflated prices). Hell, even the average homeowner thinks their house should be appreciating 10% to 20% per year, no matter what.

It's going to take some time, but as the amateur money leaves the land/housing market and reduces some of the difficulty felt by users, we should see the housing market correct itself. It won't be back to 2004-05 levels for a good long time, but we have hope that the second half of 2007 will be already start looking up a little bit.

Our buyers are encouraged to think of their homes as a durable good rather than a cash investment, as has been the thinking of late. If they can increase the value of the home 5% to 6% each year (exlcusive of improvements made), the average homebuyer should be quite happy.
 
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