His last shift

[Richard]

Here's something (emphasis in bold) you don't see in a forecast discussion very often. I included the rest for y'all who may be interested.

.AVIATION...
MESSY AVIATION WX CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A DOUBLE
INVERSION...A STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT FOG BANK HANGING AROUND LAX...
AND A FRONTAL BAND WITH LOW CIGS AND SCT SHRA MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL COAST. HZ HAS REMAINING UNEXPECTEDLY PERSISTENT AT BUR AND
VNY AS WELL. WITH SUCH DIFFICULTIES IN THE SHORT TERM...IT IS TOUGH
TO BE ESPECIALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE OVERNIGHT FCST. IN GENERAL...
EXPECT THE FRONTAL BAND TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...
WITH ONLY ISOLD -SHRA SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE LA BASIN TERMINALS TONIGHT AS THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT LATE TONIGHT
OR SAT MORNING AS NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS WX SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING AT SBA...AND MAY BECOME
A PROBLEM AT OTHER SITES SATURDAY AS VERY STRONG NW/N FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION.

AFTER ALMOST 7 YEARS IN SO CAL...THIS IS MY LAST SHIFT HERE AT WFO
OXNARD. THANKS TO THE ENTIRE LOX STAFF FOR MAKING MY TIME HERE SO
ENJOYABLE...IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE WORKING WITH ALL OF YOU.

 

[Let'sgoflying!]

I saw this one on a local report yesterday, thought it was funny:

MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS ASSESSING THE FIRST FOUR DAYS TOOK UP MUCH TIME.

I am really enjoying the detail and the thinking-out-loud that goes into the Area Forecast Discussions. They hit it bang on here this week with 'large amount of upper level moisture and dry surface air resulting in only virga and isolated showers'. I was impressed as I watched this forecast come true. There is a lot of orographic influence between us and the Baja.... and few reporting stations along the way. So many factors influence what might happen; seemed like more than just dumb luck that he got it so right though.

 

[Richard]

...I am really enjoying the detail and the thinking-out-loud that goes into the Area Forecast Discussions.... quote]Me too! They are written in such an easy style and it really allows even the layman to catch a glimpse into what the professional wxguessers are up to. Lot's of information in those discussions but the best part is comparing the real wx as it develops against the forecast.

 

[Let'sgoflying!]

the best part is comparing the real wx as it develops against the forecast.

Those guys really are held accountable! Notice the archives. Anyone can look back and see how close they were. (actually, you can look back and see what factors were swirling around that made them assess it the way they have and better understand why they were "wrong" - makes you appreciate the difficulty of their task)