Help with a go/no-go

labbadabba

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labbadabba
I have a flight tomorrow, KTOP - KIXD - KSLN in the morning and KSLN - KIXD - KTOP in the evening. C172 with GX55 GPS, dual nav and DME, no AP. It's an adequate IFR plane but by no means state of the art.

Eastern Kansas will be socked in the next 48 hours LIFR/IFR CIGS with the slight potential of embedded storms tomorrow morning on the Missouri border. Vertical development should be limited to 10k feet so the storms won't be severe but they're still storms. Forecast cloud tops at 6k ft so I should be able to see build-ups above that layer. CIGS in eastern Kansas forecast between 1,000ft and 300ft all day tomorrow. KSLN has LIFR in the morning and MVFR in the afternoon.

I've got some IMC under my belt but I've not spend a lot of time flying on days like this, since getting my instrument ticket, I mostly bust clouds in cruise but I typically don't fire off into low ceilings. One mitigating factor in all this is my PAX happens to be a 10,000 hour CFII. He's a little uneasy about the TSRA (which chances seem to be decreasing), my biggest concern are the CIGS.
 
Personally if the ceilings are widespread below me at less than 1000 ft in a single I don’t go.

I want to have 1000 feet in case of an engine failure to decide where to put it down.

If you’re not sure about that thought process, you can scare yourself listening to the atc from this fatal crash outside Boston in widespread low IMC.

https://forums.liveatc.net/atcaviation-audio-clips/bonanza-5626d-crash-plainville-ma-2015-06-28/

For good dispatch numbers in IMC you end up needing two engines and for much of the year, flight into known ice cert. Your concern shows good judgement.

imho.

Greg


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@labbadabba, what are your personal minimums?

How do those mins fit with respect to the forecast?
 
1,000 and 3sm

The only reason I'm even considering it is that I'll have an experienced CFII along.

I’ve never liked “personal minimums” as the only gauge of go/no go. You have to consider more than just your skill ie how low and approach can I fly, but also the risks, which really aren’t specific to the pilot as much as the overall circumstance. Widespread low IMC over route of flight is something you won’t notice, until you have an engine failure. It’s not a personal minimums thing, it’s a acceptable risk thing. Have to evaluate the risks along with your personal minimums, and the decision here is all driven by the weather risks.

Personal minimums are things that you stretch and grow with experience. The risks don’t change with experience. That’s the difference. One you push, the other you shouldn’t.


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I'd go but that's me. I'd check radar right before departing though, and if it looked bad (TS, line of TS) I'd cancel.

If you or your CFII passenger aren't comfortable or hesitant, don't launch. YOU have to make the decision. The rest of us don't know what you'll actually encounter this far out. But the forecast you mentioned looks favorable right now.
 
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You are the PIC. Although its really nice to have the experience along with you..really nice, ultimately its your comfort level that matters. Having said that, if you don't venture into the uncomfortable, you'll never get more comfortable.
 
If your CFII is cool go for it. He won't let it get to crazy. I have flown in some stuff I wouldn't have solo when having my CFII on board. He was comfy and I trust him. I learned alot and we lived so it wasn't bad. Sure I was uncomfortable but he wasn't.

The only thing that would concern me still is the LIFR. But with a CFII and you know the planes history and maintenance, I'd launch and learn from your pax.
 
Ensure you both know who is PIC - "I'll have a CFI along" sounds like you saying "if things get rough I can abdicate to the CFI". Make sure it's explicitly decided prior to takeoff.

Tops to 6k, at least a 1000' ceiling, sounds pretty doable to me. I did that last weekend with a CFI as PIC and I don't have IFR.
 
Ensure you both know who is PIC - "I'll have a CFI along" sounds like you saying "if things get rough I can abdicate to the CFI". Make sure it's explicitly decided prior to takeoff.

Tops to 6k, at least a 1000' ceiling, sounds pretty doable to me. I did that last weekend with a CFI as PIC and I don't have IFR.

Yep, ceilings at least 1000 for the most part is a go for me, at least in flatish terrain...

But this is *your* decision not ours.


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Personally if the ceilings are widespread below me at less than 1000 ft in a single I don’t go.

I want to have 1000 feet in case of an engine failure to decide where to put it down.

If you’re not sure about that thought process, you can scare yourself listening to the atc from this fatal crash outside Boston in widespread low IMC.

https://forums.liveatc.net/atcaviation-audio-clips/bonanza-5626d-crash-plainville-ma-2015-06-28/

For good dispatch numbers in IMC you end up needing two engines and for much of the year, flight into known ice cert. Your concern shows good judgement.

imho.

Greg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That was a sad deal there. Never met him but a lot of my med crews knew Dr Kalister and said he was an awesome guy.

https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/alamogordonews/obituary.aspx?n=kalister-family&pid=175207645
 
Ensure you both know who is PIC - "I'll have a CFI along" sounds like you saying "if things get rough I can abdicate to the CFI". Make sure it's explicitly decided prior to takeoff.

Tops to 6k, at least a 1000' ceiling, sounds pretty doable to me. I did that last weekend with a CFI as PIC and I don't have IFR.

Nope, he's a PAX. He's not actually my CFI though, I've flown with him before. We have shared business to attend to in Salina.
 
Nope, he's a PAX. He's not actually my CFI though, I've flown with him before. We have shared business to attend to in Salina.
Even if he's "not your CFI", he could be on the hook if things don't go well.
 
"It's always better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than to be in the air wishing you were on the ground."
 
My default answer to "should I go? I am not sure" is "no"

Granted, feeling some nerves before a flight is good, that keeps you safe and alert.. but if it gets to the point where you are questioning if you should go, then you shouldn't go. No one else can make that decision for you

If it comes down to just a straight confidence thing, then going on some trips with another pilot can help with that..

Cheers and goodluck!
 
I would assume that the weather will be worse,than forecast. Final decision would be just before scheduled takeoff time. That way you have an idea ,if the forecast is holding close to predicted.
 
I have a flight tomorrow, KTOP - KIXD - KSLN in the morning and KSLN - KIXD - KTOP in the evening. C172 with GX55 GPS, dual nav and DME, no AP. It's an adequate IFR plane but by no means state of the art.

Eastern Kansas will be socked in the next 48 hours LIFR/IFR CIGS with the slight potential of embedded storms tomorrow morning on the Missouri border. Vertical development should be limited to 10k feet so the storms won't be severe but they're still storms. Forecast cloud tops at 6k ft so I should be able to see build-ups above that layer. CIGS in eastern Kansas forecast between 1,000ft and 300ft all day tomorrow. KSLN has LIFR in the morning and MVFR in the afternoon.

I've got some IMC under my belt but I've not spend a lot of time flying on days like this, since getting my instrument ticket, I mostly bust clouds in cruise but I typically don't fire off into low ceilings. One mitigating factor in all this is my PAX happens to be a 10,000 hour CFII. He's a little uneasy about the TSRA (which chances seem to be decreasing), my biggest concern are the CIGS.

As I used to tell my students, your first thought is normally the right answer.

Also if you have to ask if it’s a go or no go, it’s a no go

What’s your CFI friends experience, howd he build 10k hrs

For me the biggest issue would be the convective activity in IMC, I don’t like playing that game without real onboard radar.

Nope, he's a PAX. He's not actually my CFI though, I've flown with him before. We have shared business to attend to in Salina.

If something happens and he’s upfront with you I’d wager the FAA would put some blame on him
 
Also if you have to ask if it’s a go or no go, it’s a no go

That's great, but I don't think that is really ADM...it's failing to make a decision. I hear this a lot and maybe it applies to students, but I believe it builds fair-weather pilots. There are situations where you SHOULD go even though you're asking the question. Staying on the ground means not flying at all and if you carry that through then you'll never fly. Or you'll only fly on days when it is severe clear with no wind, so once every other month.
 
What’s your CFI friends experience, howd he build 10k hrs

For me the biggest issue would be the convective activity in IMC, I don’t like playing that game without real onboard radar.

Air Force and retired part 135 captain with a lot of instructing thrown in as well. I've known him for a while and have flown with him on occasion and have learned something from him every time. His concern too was the embedded WX. Storms won't be towering but even a small storm can be deadly if you fly into it without seeing it.
 
Air Force and retired part 135 captain with a lot of instructing thrown in as well. I've known him for a while and have flown with him on occasion and have learned something from him every time. His concern too was the embedded WX. Storms won't be towering but even a small storm can be deadly if you fly into it without seeing it.

Looking at your original post, I see two things that would make me say no. Embedded thunderstorms with no on board radar, and LIFR ceilings in a single engine piston. Not saying the flight couldn't be done, but from a safety management and ADM standpoint, those are risks with high severity. Not saying the flight couldn't be done, lord knows I've done similar in the past. But I've been airborne in that environment before and was wishing I hadn't.
 
That's great, but I don't think that is really ADM...it's failing to make a decision. I hear this a lot and maybe it applies to students, but I believe it builds fair-weather pilots. There are situations where you SHOULD go even though you're asking the question. Staying on the ground means not flying at all and if you carry that through then you'll never fly. Or you'll only fly on days when it is severe clear with no wind, so once every other month.


You’ll naturally feel more comfortable with more experience, trusting ones gut is a good thing, not second guessing a safety concern is good, “this weather doesn’t look good” or “maybe I should land there and toss in a little more fuel”, your gut knows what’s up, sometimes the hardest part of flying is knowing when to say no.
 
That's great, but I don't think that is really ADM...it's failing to make a decision.
But it shows that they're incapable of making that decision on their own, which means they're still lacking some tools and foundation to have sound ADM, at least in that situation, or that the set of situations and variables they are faced with are beyond their current scope of expertise. The only ADM, in my mind, when you don't have the tools to make sound ADM, is to not go.. or grab a buddy, or a safety pilot, and do the trip with them. If you go on the trip and find you are in over your head, fine, you can load shed and work with the other pilot. Or, maybe it's easy peasy.. either way you've learned and added to your ADM knowledge bucket. We just watched that video about that VFR guy who spiraled it down somewhere over Chicago in marginal VFR / IMC

I believe it builds fair-weather pilots. There are situations where you SHOULD go even though you're asking the question. Staying on the ground means not flying at all and if you carry that through then you'll never fly. Or you'll only fly on days when it is severe clear with no wind, so once every other month.
I think for many people who only fly <50 hrs a year, they probably should be just fair weather pilots.. but I know that's some major flame-bait, so I'll modify that by saying this will depend on each individual's proficiency level. With each trip and experience that proficiency will grow. And obviously there are ranges on the spectrum from DEFINITELY GO - IFFY - DEFINITELY DO NOT GO. But you should be able to make that judgment based on your personal experience. Once you start asking other people to make that decision for you it means you don't possess the tools to make that judgment yourself and you should not launch into conditions like that. When you are in and out of clouds, behind the plane, and ATC just changed your arrival from the "expected ILS" over to a VOR A with a procedure turn then you won't have an internet forum to turn to for help

I'm probably too harsh. But that's always been like someone asking me "do you think I can afford this?" That doesn't mean you should never buy anything, but if you don't think you can afford it, or you question being able to safely make the trip, then you shouldn't buy it; go on the trip
 
@Tanatlum I guess in fairness, I'm not asking for people to make the decision for me, rather, I guess I'm seeking validation of my gut feeling... I far too often feel like I'm a chickenchit pilot so getting feedback helps quell what ever indecision I may have.
 
@Tanatlum I guess in fairness, I'm not asking for people to make the decision for me, rather, I guess I'm seeking validation of my gut feeling... I far too often feel like I'm a chickenchit pilot so getting feedback helps quell what ever indecision I may have.
For sure man, and I hope you don't think my post was directed at you. Just giving bflynn some perspective

I think it's very common to feel anxious before flying.. I mean, if you didn't, I think there'd be something wrong with that picture too since that keeps us on our toes and alert. I'm still in camp of "I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was up there than in the air wishing I was on the ground"

To that end, the best way to build confidence is set hard minimums for yourself and give yourself missions. If the minimums pass, and you've done your homework, etc., then the mission is a great way to build out your confidence

Personally, I would likely go, but this is in a plane that has nexrad and FIKI and AP, and I would check very carefully the forecast and conditions again the day of. The thing that would bother me are the embedded storms.. those can develop and move fast. So you may just have to wait until the day of to make the final call. I still stick to my original statement of of "if you have to ask, or need encouragement, you may not be ready for it"

I’ve never liked “personal minimums”
Yeah.. I think it's important to have some understanding of what your capabilities are, but those can't supplant your own case by case ADM.. there's a fine line in there somewhere
 
I don’t think asking advice from experienced aviators is a bad thing, only thing better than learning from your mistakes is learning from other people’s mistakes :)
 
I don’t fly IFR in a se piston unless I can fly to VFR weather with fuel on board or the ceiling is high enough above terrain to break out and find a survivable spot to land.
 
TAFs, metar
KTOP 070253Z AUTO 03005KT 10SM OVC011 22/21 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP210 T02170211 53009

KTOP 062334Z 0700/0724 03008KT P6SM OVC012
FM070400 04006KT P6SM VCSH OVC008
FM071200 03008KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC006
KIXD 070253Z 01005KT 10SM CLR 22/21 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP208 T02170211 53013

KIXD 062331Z 0700/0724 01008KT P6SM SCT015
TEMPO 0700/0702 02010KT P6SM BKN015
FM070200 03007KT P6SM VCSH OVC008
FM070600 03007KT 4SM -RA BR OVC004
TEMPO 0708/0712 1SM RA BR
FM071300 04010KT 3SM -RA BR OVC004
FM071800 04010KT 5SM -RA BR OVC008
KSLN 070253Z 03004KT 10SM OVC009 21/20 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP216 T02110200 53007

KSLN 062339Z 0700/0724 02010KT P6SM OVC013
FM070200 02008KT P6SM OVC008
FM070800 03008KT 2SM -DZ OVC006
FM071600 03010KT P6SM OVC008
FM072000 03010KT P6SM OVC015
 
TAFs, metar
KTOP 070253Z AUTO 03005KT 10SM OVC011 22/21 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP210 T02170211 53009

KTOP 062334Z 0700/0724 03008KT P6SM OVC012
FM070400 04006KT P6SM VCSH OVC008
FM071200 03008KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC006
KIXD 070253Z 01005KT 10SM CLR 22/21 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP208 T02170211 53013

KIXD 062331Z 0700/0724 01008KT P6SM SCT015
TEMPO 0700/0702 02010KT P6SM BKN015
FM070200 03007KT P6SM VCSH OVC008
FM070600 03007KT 4SM -RA BR OVC004
TEMPO 0708/0712 1SM RA BR
FM071300 04010KT 3SM -RA BR OVC004
FM071800 04010KT 5SM -RA BR OVC008
KSLN 070253Z 03004KT 10SM OVC009 21/20 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP216 T02110200 53007

KSLN 062339Z 0700/0724 02010KT P6SM OVC013
FM070200 02008KT P6SM OVC008
FM070800 03008KT 2SM -DZ OVC006
FM071600 03010KT P6SM OVC008
FM072000 03010KT P6SM OVC015

Yep. The good thing that I can see with the latest TAFs is the it looks like the convective activity will be south and east of my potential flight path.
 
TAFs, metar
KTOP 070253Z AUTO 03005KT 10SM OVC011 22/21 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP210 T02170211 53009

KTOP 062334Z 0700/0724 03008KT P6SM OVC012
FM070400 04006KT P6SM VCSH OVC008
FM071200 03008KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC006
KIXD 070253Z 01005KT 10SM CLR 22/21 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP208 T02170211 53013

KIXD 062331Z 0700/0724 01008KT P6SM SCT015
TEMPO 0700/0702 02010KT P6SM BKN015
FM070200 03007KT P6SM VCSH OVC008
FM070600 03007KT 4SM -RA BR OVC004
TEMPO 0708/0712 1SM RA BR
FM071300 04010KT 3SM -RA BR OVC004
FM071800 04010KT 5SM -RA BR OVC008
KSLN 070253Z 03004KT 10SM OVC009 21/20 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP216 T02110200 53007

KSLN 062339Z 0700/0724 02010KT P6SM OVC013
FM070200 02008KT P6SM OVC008
FM070800 03008KT 2SM -DZ OVC006
FM071600 03010KT P6SM OVC008
FM072000 03010KT P6SM OVC015

No AP quasi single pilot IFR/IMC, crap, unless your IMC game is strong that’s a whole lot of noooope
 
Scrubbed the flight. Ceiling will lift somewhat this afternoon, going to get some dual time instead in IMC. Thanks all for your feedback and being an ADM sounding board.
 
Personally if the ceilings are widespread below me at less than 1000 ft in a single I don’t go.

I want to have 1000 feet in case of an engine failure to decide where to put it down.

If you’re not sure about that thought process, you can scare yourself listening to the atc from this fatal crash outside Boston in widespread low IMC.

https://forums.liveatc.net/atcaviation-audio-clips/bonanza-5626d-crash-plainville-ma-2015-06-28/

Damn, that's a punch right in the gut. People chastise me for not flying in widespread LIFR or at night, but if you can't see, you have no chance. When you pop out at 50agl, what you see is what you eat.
 
Glad you scrubbed. It sounds like you knew your answer as you were typing your original post.
 
But that's always been like someone asking me "do you think I can afford this?" That doesn't mean you should never buy anything, but if you don't think you can afford it, or you question being able to safely make the trip, then you shouldn't buy it; go on the trip

Guess I'm just a little tired of hearing people say "If you're asking, the answer is no."

I'm a member of CAP. I actually like the ADM used there, evaluating the risk areas and if you get a high score, think about what you're doing and why. I think too many say any increased risk is a no-go and that simply isn't true.

In aviation, 1+1=3, but 3 may still be OK.

1+1+1+1+1=50 and you're in big trouble.
 
Guess I'm just a little tired of hearing people say "If you're asking, the answer is no."

I'm a member of CAP. I actually like the ADM used there, evaluating the risk areas and if you get a high score, think about what you're doing and why. I think too many say any increased risk is a no-go and that simply isn't true.

In aviation, 1+1=3, but 3 may still be OK.

1+1+1+1+1=50 and you're in big trouble.
This I agree with. A pragmatic approach.

sometimes when I hear people ask that question though, it reads to me like 1+1+X=?

In that case to me a safe default is not to go.

I am sure @labbadabba can do math, but in his case the unknown was the chance of embedded thunderstorms.. so unless you already have some experience already with dealing with weather and build ups then I would consider that a no go
 
Guess I'm just a little tired of hearing people say "If you're asking, the answer is no."

I'm a member of CAP. I actually like the ADM used there, evaluating the risk areas and if you get a high score, think about what you're doing and why. I think too many say any increased risk is a no-go and that simply isn't true.

In aviation, 1+1=3, but 3 may still be OK.

1+1+1+1+1=50 and you're in big trouble.

The original mission was a CAP flight in support of KS ANG.

The mission was scrubbed due to low CIGS the nasty stuff was to our south.

As I mentioned I was going to go up anyway with the CFI but we lost our audio panel during our takeoff roll. Today just wasn't meant to be.
 
^sorry man, it happens
 
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