Good for Piper

drotto said:
This is a fairly big deal and should make them stable for the next several years at least. Some new products would be nice however.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/us-...sell-152-planes-to-chinese-flight-school.html

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Will a new trainer produce better pilots than the current Archer/Seminole/Seneca lineup?

What new products in the private owner GA market do you think will sell profitably? Maybe a turbocharged, pressurized piston single? How about a single pilot personal turboprop? ;)

Yet another light jet in an overcrowded market? (Honda is having a tough time moving theirs, and that is impacting its ability to set up a dealer network to service the limited numbers already out there).
 
Almost 500K/plane for a training airplane.
 
GRG55 said:
Will a new trainer produce better pilots than the current Archer/Seminole/Seneca lineup?

What new products in the private owner GA market do you think will sell profitably? Maybe a turbocharged, pressurized piston single? How about a single pilot personal turboprop? ;)

Yet another light jet in an overcrowded market? (Honda is having a tough time moving theirs, and that is impacting its ability to set up a dealer network to service the limited numbers already out there).
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Honestly I think there is a market for a piston six to replace the Saratoga line. I know Diamond is brining out the DA50, and the Bonanza is availible. That market could really use a true six seater, and not the barely 4 the current Bonanza is ( yes I am aware is is a great plane).

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Honestly I think there is a market for a piston six to replace the Saratoga line. I know Diamond is brining out the DA50, and the Bonanza is availible. That market could really use a true six seater, and not the barely 4 the current Bonanza is ( yes I am aware is is a great plane).

A piston 6 to replace the Saratoga???? How about the M350, 213 KTAS, 25,000 foot ceiling, 1250 lb useful load, 1345 nm range, take off and land over a 50 ft. obstacle in 2000 feet, standard AC, true cabin class and new for 2018 G1000 Nxi, not to mention pressurized so you can really use the flight levels.... The Saratoga was a nice plane, but not in the same ballpark as the M350.
 
Rockymountain said:
Honestly I think there is a market for a piston six to replace the Saratoga line. I know Diamond is brining out the DA50, and the Bonanza is availible. That market could really use a true six seater, and not the barely 4 the current Bonanza is ( yes I am aware is is a great plane).

A piston 6 to replace the Saratoga???? How about the M350, 213 KTAS, 25,000 foot ceiling, 1250 lb useful load, 1345 nm range, take off and land over a 50 ft. obstacle in 2000 feet, standard AC, true cabin class and new for 2018 G1000 Nxi, not to mention pressurized so you can really use the flight levels.... The Saratoga was a nice plane, but not in the same ballpark as the M350.
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He's talking about actual airplanes...1250 useful load is a six-seat glider.

Unless it burns hydrogen. ;)
 
MauleSkinner said:
He's talking about actual airplanes...1250 useful load is a six-seat glider.

Unless it burns hydrogen. ;)
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Don't disagree on the useful load observation. Quite a different airplane from the 6/Saratoga.

Seems one has to move up to the 600 shp kerosene version of the same airframe to solve the useful load problem. ;)
 
My heart goes out to the poor CFIs who are going to be training the pilots over there lol.
 
drotto said:
Honestly I think there is a market for a piston six to replace the Saratoga line. I know Diamond is brining out the DA50, and the Bonanza is availible. That market could really use a true six seater, and not the barely 4 the current Bonanza is ( yes I am aware is is a great plane).

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Click to expand...

Textron is shutting down the Bonanza and Baron production soon (TTx already done)
 
drotto said:
This is a fairly big deal and should make them stable for the next several years at least. Some new products would be nice however.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/us-...sell-152-planes-to-chinese-flight-school.html

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Like the M600? I would like to see
MauleSkinner said:
He's talking about actual airplanes...1250 useful load is a six-seat glider.

Unless it burns hydrogen. ;)
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I disagree. With 1250 lbs of useful load For the FAA family with 2-4 kids, you can fill all 6 seats and have room for 90 gallons of fuel which gives you 3 hours of flight time and reserves. In a 200 knot airplane, that is pretty good. Plane only burns 120 lbs of fuel per hour, (180 lbs the first hour) so do the math. Don't need to carry very much fuel. Used to have a Mirage, and had all 6 seats filled plenty of times.
 
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Rockymountain said:
I disagree. With 1250 lbs of useful load For the FAA family with 2-4 kids, you can fill all 6 seats and have room for 90 gallons of fuel which gives you 3 hours of flight time and reserves. In a 200 knot airplane, that is pretty good. Plane only burns 120 lbs of fuel per hour, (180 lbs the first hour) so do the math. Don't need to carry very much fuel. Used to have a Mirage, and had all 6 seats filled plenty of times.
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He did say a "true six seater", which I would take to mean six adults. The Bonanza he mentioned as not being adequate also has room for a family with 2-4 kids.

A true six seater to me would be six adults plus gas...probably closer to 1500 lbs useful load. While the Saratogas I flew were probably heavier, the Cherokee Sixes I've flown had 1500-1600 lbs useful.
 
Would be nice to get something fresh in the 6 place ga market

I think the biggest obstacle though is price. At $800K or more for a proper Cirrus I can only image what a Cirrus equivalent true 6 place would run you.. at that point VLJs, TBMs, etc are likely more appealing. I *love* the DA62.. but if I actually had the $$ for one I'd be buying something else

Just like vernier knobs and retractable gear I think the (true) 6 seat piston single market will be a shrinking breed unfortunately
 
RudyP said:
Textron is shutting down the Bonanza and Baron production soon (TTx already done)
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Rudy, do have a link or any other information about this? I tried to verify but could only find a dated beechtalk discussion about it with no real evidence supporting it.
 
Radar Contact said:
Rudy, do have a link or any other information about this? I tried to verify but could only find a dated beechtalk discussion about it with no real evidence supporting it.
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I do not. So it could be rumor but unfortunately, I have heard it from a pretty solid source. Feel free to take with a grain of salt though.
 
RudyP said:
Textron is shutting down the Bonanza and Baron production soon (TTx already done)
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Is there a press release about cancelling TTx production? I couldn't find anything on the Textron website.

The Bo, Baron and TTx all sold reasonably good numbers in 2016...by the pathetic standards of the piston aircraft market. Maybe not enough by the volume required to survive in Textron's stable, given their model revenue numbers probably don't move the needle much on the income statement.
 
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RudyP said:
I do not. So it could be rumor but unfortunately, I have heard it from a pretty solid source. Feel free to take with a grain of salt though.
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Thank you. I'm only interested in that I prefer twins and eventually the twin cessna fleet will be too old to maintain. I guess they've already produced a Baron that will outlast me so not too big of a deal...
 
I wouldn't be surprised at the Tax cancellation, they sell in the single digits yearly. The Bo and the Baron are surprising, you'd think there'd be a market. But I don't know how many airframes they've been delivering.
 
steingar said:
I wouldn't be surprised at the Tax cancellation, they sell in the single digits yearly. The Bo and the Baron are surprising, you'd think there'd be a market. But I don't know how many airframes they've been delivering.
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Through three quarters last year, 9 Bonanzas and 13 Barons.
 
GRG55 said:
Is there a press release about cancelling TTx production? I couldn't find anything on the Textron website.

The Bo, Baron and TTx all sold reasonably good numbers in 2016...by the pathetic standards of the piston aircraft market. Maybe not enough by the volume required to survive in Textron's stable, given their model revenue numbers probably don't move the needle much on the income statement.
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No press release that I know of but you can’t order a TTX any more.
 
steingar said:
Ouch, not many. then again, isn't that like $30 million in sales? most companies would be pretty happy with that.
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That's a lot compared to what it was. There was one year they sold 4 Bo's and one year they sold none.
 
flyingron said:
There was one year they sold 4 Bo's and one year they sold none
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I should really don a flak jacket for this, hopefully someone doesn't pull my millennial ejection handle... but why would someone buy a brand new Bonanza? Looking at their site now I am showing that a brand new G36 gives you:

176 TAS (max cruise)
1,063 useful load
920 nm range

**For $400K you can get a 2000 (still relatively new in plane terms) A36 that has almost 200 lbs more useful load and is a fraction of the cost
**Or, for comparable money (if you really want to buy new) then you can get a Cirrus and get 213 KTAS and 1,242 lbs useful load with more range

They're a sweet looking plane, but I don't get the obsession with Bonanza... they're kind of not that great?? If I wanted a big, capable plane, and had less than $300K to spend then a Bo would be a serious candidate.. but I'm not surprised they're not selling new ones in the $500K+ range
 
It's like taking a 1970s Suburban, putting bluetooth in it and a GPS, and trying to sell it for the same amount of money as a Porsche Cayenne or Range Rover.. some diehards will get the suburban for the nostalgia factor or whatever, but that's why one sells 300+ in a year and the other sells 4...
 
MauleSkinner said:
He did say a "true six seater", which I would take to mean six adults. The Bonanza he mentioned as not being adequate also has room for a family with 2-4 kids.

A true six seater to me would be six adults plus gas...probably closer to 1500 lbs useful load. While the Saratogas I flew were probably heavier, the Cherokee Sixes I've flown had 1500-1600 lbs useful.
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I guess you can define "true" humans any way you want, but 6 humans is 6 humans. Still a 6-seater if you ask me ;-) Anyway barring the obesity epidemic in our country, carrying some combination of adults and or children is doable in the Mirage, and like I said, I have had all 6 seats filled numerous times. No modern Saratoga, bonanza or any other piston 6-seater is going to beat the useful load of the Mirage for a given range. If you really want to carry 6 adult "Merican's" and baggage, you are in turbine country anyway ;-)
 
flyingron said:
That's a lot compared to what it was. There was one year they sold 4 Bo's and one year they sold none.
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According to the GAMA statistics Textron sold 25 Bonanzas and 20 Barons in full year 2016 (and 31 TTx).

According to the GAMA data there is no year from 2003 (the earliest year of data in the 2016 yearbook) where either the Bonanza or the Baron sold in single digits. Not even during the financial crisis years that hit GA so hard.

Haven't seen the full year 2017 stats yet. And rumours of the models being discontinued are unlikely to support sales volumes.
 
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Clark1961 said:
Not if it cost them 31 million to produce...
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New aircraft have to recover the enormous cost of certifying them. The Bonanza and Baron certification costs have long ago been paid back. But Textron does need to sell some minimum number each year to recover the annual fixed costs of keeping the line operating.

If the best of the legacy piston aircraft can't be kept in production, I doubt we will see very many newly certified designs take their place. Even Cirrus is unliklely to ever do much more in the piston space other than put out more refined/tweaked versions of the planes they already produce.

Against selling Caravans and Citations (and some day the Denali turboprop) I imagine the margin/effort ratio to move each Beechcraft compares poorly for Textron.
 
Tantalum said:
It's like taking a 1970s Suburban, putting bluetooth in it and a GPS, and trying to sell it for the same amount of money as a Porsche Cayenne or Range Rover.. some diehards will get the suburban for the nostalgia factor or whatever, but that's why one sells 300+ in a year and the other sells 4...
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Where did you get 4?
 
RudyP said:
No press release that I know of but you can’t order a TTX any more.
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You would think a corporation the size of Textron/Cessna would take it off the website then?

And I would also have expected outfits like Flying Magazine to have sniffed that out as well. Not a peep.
 
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GRG55 said:
New aircraft have to recover the enormous cost of certifying them. The Bonanza and Baron certification costs have long ago been paid back. But Textron does need to sell some minimum number each year to recover the annual fixed costs of keeping the line operating.

If the best of the legacy piston aircraft can't be kept in production, I doubt we will see very many newly certified designs take their place. Even Cirrus is unliklely to ever do much more in the piston space other than put out more refined/tweaked versions of the planes they already produce.

Against selling Caravans and Citations (and some day the Denali turboprop) I imagine the margin/effort ratio to move each Beechcraft compares poorly for Textron.
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You are forgetting product insurance cost in your pontification. That’s okay you aren’t expected to be accurate on POA.
 
Tantalum said:
I should really don a flak jacket for this, hopefully someone doesn't pull my millennial ejection handle... but why would someone buy a brand new Bonanza?
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Accelerated depreciation schedules can be used to reduce tax liabilities for small businesses. The schedule only applies to purchases if new items.

*I’m not a business owner or CPA, so this is worth what you paid for it.
 
Clark1961 said:
You are forgetting product insurance cost in your pontification. That’s okay you aren’t expected to be accurate on POA.
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I see I am not alone in that skill.

Product liability is a function of the legacy fleet already out there. It doesn't go away when a company stops making new widgets on the same certificate.

It's perhaps one advantage Cirrus enjoys over Cessna, Piper, et al. For now.

Looking forward to your elucidating on the specific inaccuracies you found in my last post.
 
GRG55 said:
I see I am not alone in that skill.

Product liability is a function of the legacy fleet already out there. It doesn't go away when a company stops making new widgets on the same certificate.

It's perhaps one advantage Cirrus enjoys over Cessna, Piper, et al. For now.

Looking forward to your elucidating on the specific inaccuracies you found in my last post.
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Really? Rolling insurance cost into overhead is simple. You failed to mention insurance costs and it is significant. Sorry if your failure bothers you. HAND.
 
Piper should resurrect the PA28-140(150) as a 2-seat training, same design as the 1977 model they phased out. It's a simple, solid, dependable airplane. If you train in a Piper, you'll probably buy and fly Pipers. It would be a lot better for them that the 162 debacle was for Cessna. The Cherokee, and it's descendents are iconic aircraft, and remain GA favorites.
 
GRG55 said:
You would think a corporation the size of Textron/Cessna would take it off the website then?

And I would also have expected outfits like Flying Magazine to have sniffed that out as well. Not a peep.
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Yes, although I could also see it being one of those things where no one is in a huge hurry to make the announcement. Not exactly an exciting story to tell (or report).

But again, feel free to take what I’m saying with a grain of salt. I believe it to be accurate (based on source) but even I can’t stand by it with 100% certainty. I certainly don’t expect you to believe me (a random person on the internet to you) and am not offended if you do not.
 
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