Good day to shoot some approaches?

azure

azure

Final Approach
Joined
Apr 2, 2005
Messages
8,293
Location
Varmint Country
Display Name
Display name:
azure
I'm looking at the weather closely today. Both the FA and the TAFs indicate a good chance of IFR conditions, and best of all, lowest freezing level is about 10,000 feet. The only fly in the ointment is the possibility of convective weather -- I'll have to watch convective outlooks and radar very closely. Well, actually two flies: the column doesn't look very saturated later in the afternoon except up around MBS, which is the earliest I'll be able to get to the airport.

LM LWR MI LH
N HLF..OVC015 TOP 080. TIL 12Z OCNL VIS 3SM BR. BECMG 1820 OVC015
TOP FL240. VIS 5SM -RA BR. OTLK..IFR CIG.
S HLF..OVC015 TOP 080. VIS 3SM BR. BECMG 1416 OVC015 TOP FL240.
VIS 3SM -RA BR. OTLK..IFR CIG.
.
KPTK 091539Z 0916/1012 14008KT P6SM -SHRA SCT007 BKN035
FM091800 14008KT 5SM -RA BKN025 OVC040
FM092300 07004KT 4SM BR OVC007
FM100600 04003KT 2SM -RA BR OVC005

Other than the two products I mentioned above, what forecasting tools do people here use to assess chances of convection? This will be my first thunderstorm season since getting my rating, so I don't have a lot of (actually, any) experience with convective weather.
 

Attachments

  • skewt.26550.gif
    skewt.26550.gif
    28.8 KB · Views: 26
Shoot? And who is this approach guy anyway?

Sorry, too many zero tolerance stories out there.

Although a vfr guy, I generally try to check system movement and fronts three days or so ahead to get a sense of what might be coming in on the day I plan to fly.
 
based on that sounding it's going to need to warm up to about 22C to have to worry about serious convection.
 
tonycondon said:
based on that sounding it's going to need to warm up to about 22C to have to worry about serious convection.
Click to expand...
Actually I just scrubbed because of heavy convection moving in from over Lake Michigan. We're on the north side of the front, but there's a lot of energy on the other side feeding in.
 
It was really bumpy down here in NWOhio last night. Strong headwinds and turbulence! Did get 4 approaches in though with my CFI on board and that was entertaining. The crab angle I had to fly the needles was crazy! I wouldn't have gone out on my own though either.
 
After I posted that I reconsidered going out again, and watched the radar overlay on Foreflight closely for a half hour or so. It was a real eye-opener. There was a large complex of rainstorms, approaching the size of a MCS, that was passing just to our north. Most of it was just light to moderate rain, but there were embedded strong cells up to FL250 and even 350, multiple mesocyclone vortices, and eventually a funnel or tornado, passing by PTK and coming within 10 nm of home field.

Definitely not a good day to be flying in IMC in a spam can. :nonod:
 
CJones said:
Why do you say that?
Click to expand...

that was about how hot i figured it would have to be before a heated particle would condense and go postal. now that i look at it i think it would have to be even hotter. the surface dew point follows the black dashed lines as a particle rises, the temperature follows the diagonal lines up and to the left. you find a temp where the temp line doesn't hit the red line of measured temp before it intersects the lifted dew point. from the point where those two lines meet then you follow the curvy orange line until you eventually hit the red temp line. if you have to go way up to the stratosphere for that to happen you can plan on some thunderboomers.

however in this case there was some frontal action involved which means the measured upper atmosphere was modified and all forecasts based on this sounding are worthless, as was shown.
 
Title came across shortened as "good day to shoot some..."

My first thought...

"One?"
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top