Go/No-Go 5/29 morning flight BJJ-PDK

Morne

Morne

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Morne
Along the same lines as my last thread, but this time looking at a future flight:

Tuesday 5/29 morning I need to fly my 182 from BJJ to PDK. My bad weather alternative is to fly commercial from CAK to ATL (always seats available, even short notice).

Looking at the 48 hour prog chart it seems that I'll once again be in between the bad stuff, depending on how the feeder bands from the tropical storm play out.

I plan on two legs with a stop for fuel around DWU or so. My bird has standard range tanks and I personally like to flight plan for 3 hours or less. Add in the mountains just NE of Atlanta and I figure that it is better to be safe than sorry.

Thoughts/suggestions/observations/critiques?
 
You'll be able to pick your way through, stay low, there's plenty of big low passes through all the those hills, this time of year the bloods will only be down covering the tops of the highest 30% anyway. The most time I've ever spent rerouting on that path even in the crappiest of non winter weather has added up to an extra hour. Since there's lots of small airports with fuel every way you cut through, it's not a major issue. If storm bands are playing through, you land nearest, ask em to stuff it in a hangar and ask where's to go eat. By the time your back, the band is gone and you're flying again. This is what I do when I'm helping clear planes out as hurricanes are coming since we don't start moving stuff till 24 hrs out when there's a better chance of figuring what needs to go and where to take it.

There is very little summer weather that cannot be flown VFR, and typically for small planes in summer weather it's a lot safer under the clouds than I them.
 
6AM monday looks okay as of now, but that's Waaaayyyy to soon to tell. sigh.

What are you flying?
 
The lions cage eyes wide open is the safest place to be when you know the lions and can see them. Being in the lions cage blindfolded is what concerns me much more. If I see the lions, I can get out of the cage before they kill me. With a blindfold on, my chances are not so good. I know the lions that live in those clouds, I've made my living for the last 25 years under them watching what they do and what drops out of them. I have a very healthy respect for them. Like in the circus, I climb in the cage knowing full well I'm dealing with a force that is infinitely more powerful than I, therefore I like seeing what's going on.
 
scottd said:
The 48 hour prog chart only takes you to 00Z Tues. I don't think at 12Z on Tuesday you'll be "in between" the bad stuff; you'll likely be *in* the bad stuff. I'd expect to see a line of convection extending from Upstate NY down through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the morning. This convection will continue to progress east impacting the Atlanta area through the early to mid-afternoon.

There's an upper level trough passing through the Great Lakes that is expected to achieve a negative tilt on Tuesday. So, this means the potential for some severe weather (mostly to the north and east of your proposed route).

Given the current subtropical storm (expected to become tropical storm soon), I can't imagine trying to pick my way through this area down low. That's like asking to change seats at the circus to the lion's cage because the view is better. Tropical systems such as this tend to bring in a lot of low-level moisture keeping the bases of the clouds rather low. I'd expect to see some IFR and MVFR ceilings covering a good portion of Georgia - especially early.

Not only that, but often the cells associated with the storm can produce severe weather (including small tornadoes) with no lightning and rather benign-looking NEXRAD.

My thoughts are that the weather early morning Tuesday may not allow you to launch from Ohio. Waiting for a few hours might allow the weather to move through your area and improve with the weather to the west much less threatening. So, I would be looking to make my fuel stop west of a direct route hoping that Beryl doesn't linger too long or doesn't make its way further west than expected.
Click to expand...
Wow. Dude. IMPRESSIVE.

Thanks for the assessment. Honestly I didn't think you could get a severe cell with a tornado but no lightning. Learn something new every day.

Yes, this is stil very early to be judging Tuesday morning. But I'd rather watch how the forecast develops and changes from as far out as possible so I can make an informed decision.
 
Why do you mean by cheap seats? Non-sarcastic question.
 
I prefer the Lion's cage at FL 20-23, and navigating around the lions in VMC. But that may not be an option for in a 182.

I have gotten undergross 182s up at 16,000 but the top of the embed is commonly FL 18.
 
TAFs are looking marginal - might be time to fly the airlines.
 
Of course, now, the weather is teasing you. 6PM Z (or 2PM) now looks like it'll work.

I should follow more closely. Are you IR'd?
 
Working on IR, not yet done
 
If you have decent visibility staying low is fine. Sure you have gust fronts etc but if you can see more than 10 or 15mi and avoid any rain shafts and anything else that looks ugly you'll be ok.

If you have low vis due to typical summer haze, this can be a real problem. And/Or severe weather which you should stay 20 plus miles from

Speaking of gust fronts and outflow boundaries... This is one of the two correct?

ae6d07dd-2303-58e3.jpg
 
Airline ticket in hand. Looks like if I had departed early this morning, like right now, I could have made it ALMOST all the way there with clear skies. But PDK has 2100' BKN and only likely to get worse, I am not going into that.

No-go.
 
Morne said:
Airline ticket in hand. Looks like if I had departed early this morning, like right now, I could have made it ALMOST all the way there with clear skies. But PDK has 2100' BKN and only likely to get worse, I am not going into that.

No-go.
Click to expand...

Good call, everything in the area is either MVFR or IFR currently and the forecast is not good. Ford Tri Motor might be stuck here in Atlanta today.
 
Glad to have made the no-go call. Weather late morning was a beast. The only sucky part is that tomorrow would be a beautiful flight home. Oh well, another time.
 
The Ford Tri Motor actually took off around 10:45 am yesterday and maybe got to the SC border on its way to Concord, NC before it turned back. Even multi thousand hour pilots can make the wrong call sometimes.
 
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