Getting ceilings 3 days in advance

[gil_mor]

Hi everybody,
I'm thinking about taking my GF to Santa Fe for her birthday.

The forecast around the route is "Mostly cloudy".
I'm trying to figure out if its going to be mostly cloudy at FL250 or at 2500agl.

Any ideas, other then wait for to the 24 hour forecast?

 

[denverpilot]

Heh. Up until 8 hours before my planned flight to Nebraska today, there was no mention of the wall of ice between here and there.

All those bad non-warm-and-fuzzy things like "freezing fog" didn't show up until last night.

The 12 and 24 hour outlook charts published about mid-day yesterday started hinting at problems but weren't screaming "no-go" yet. The Surface chart looked "confused" like it always does under multiple high pressure sustems with a ridge aloft. Plenty of big stationary fronts to keep you guessing.

By last night the outlook charts had areas of potential IFR covering the route. By this morning, the METARs showed where the weather had formed and the PIREP by some kind soul in a Cessna 208 over Grand Island at 3000' was key info to back up a full-stop no-go decision. (Thanks to that FedEx driver -- I'm assuming!)

Sometimes you just have to wait for the prognostications and the METARs and hopefully some PIREPs to form a complete picture.

 

[poadeleted20]

Try here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/index.html
Ceiling, vis, precip forecasts several days out. Of course, the farther out, the less reliable, but it's better'n nothin'.

 

[TangoWhiskey]

While normal outlook forecasts have a 6- or 12- hour granularity, there is a model that produces 3 hour interval data, the NWS GFS MOS output. You can read through it (make sure you have the KEY!), but US Airnet depicts it nicely and graphically. Here's the output for KSAF:

http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?state=NM&sta=KSAF

 

[gil_mor]

denverpilot - Yea, I was following your "Proctology procedure" there, sometimes weather can change Real fast (flying wild Alaska anyone?).

Gotta love PIREPs

Ron and TW - this is EXACTLY what I wanted, appreciate it!
Both are now bookmarked.

I know it can all change quickly, but it gives me something to work with.
I already gave my GF the "There's always a chance we wont make it there, or stay there longer then planned, or divert, or whatever".
Right now its looking good, but we are working on plan B.

Why? to avoid get-there-itis.

 

[denverpilot]

Ooh. More cool weather toys.

http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?state=NE&sta=KLNK

Tomorrow sure looks better than this afternoon!

 

[TMetzinger]

Also, look at the temperature and humidity predictions for those days.

Mostly cloudy with lower temps and high humidity generally means a close temp/dewpoint spread, which means lower bases.

 

[gil_mor]

Also, look at the temperature and humidity predictions for those days.

Mostly cloudy with lower temps and high humidity generally means a close temp/dewpoint spread, which means lower bases.

Good point!

 

[n20junkie]

Over 24 hours out is a 50/50 crap shoot during the transition from fall to winter.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

I know it can all change quickly, but it gives me something to work with.
I already gave my GF the "There's always a chance we wont make it there, or stay there longer then planned, or divert, or whatever".
Right now its looking good, but we are working on plan B.

Why? to avoid get-there-itis.

My favorite aviation quote, which is by yours truly:

"Flying is always an adventure - It's just not necessarily the adventure you'd planned on."

Some of the best stories come from the unexpected diversions, unplanned stops, unforecast weather, etc... The key to it all is to be flexible and enjoy the adventure as it comes.