Fuel cost in California increase

[AlphaPilotFlyer]

I am reading a lot about closing of 2 significant gasoline refineries in California and the increase price of car gas. I read projections of $8-12 per gal by end of this year for regular ethanol gas, not premium. I wonder how or if this will affect AVGS or its recent STC’d alternatives in the state. Not sure where the state’s AVGAS is currently is produced. Likewise for the alternatives.

Anyone know if theses refineries were producing AVGAS or portions of the alternatives?

I fly out of LAX and often rent cars and used to seeing gas about $4.90-5.80 (higher near the rental car facilities as the last opportunity to gouge the tourist), but seen prices well above $6/gal last week. So I expect AVGAS would see some increase as well.

At my home airport in Colorado, I was paying about $2.25 about a month ago, now closer to $2.70 ish for regular 10% ethanol 85 octane I use in my experimental Cessna. Home airport Avgas is typical above $7., currently $7.22/gal, but available for less within a short flight closer to $5.50- 6 ish.

When out of country I sometimes ask AVGAS costs and its normally about $10/usg in Europe, about double in Japan, and China FBO wouldn’t tell me. Was also told, you may have to pre order it at some GA airports potentially by the barrel. There’s was also some confusion about taxes that may not necessarily be included in per gallon coat and not known until I commit to buy it. So we enjoy a significant cost benefit here in US. Years ago I flew a lot out of Venezuela where gas was heavily govt subsidized and remember it Being about 50-75 cents/gal, at least for non USA aircraft.

I hope the new owners of the STC’d fuels won’t use/reference foreign markets to figure price elasticity for US market, as they will be as of year 2030 be a binopoly,…especially in California where state taxes increase cost even more.

Anyone with real insight please chime in about how California gets is AVGAS and its source of STC’d alternatives, and if there are additional state taxes on it.

 

[decalogue]

It’s not a real cost, based on anything but mindless bureaucratic nonsense

Also who cares how much the euros over pay for gas, same folks thought a tax added value (VAT) lol


I mean I could add a $50 per gallon tax to save the unicorns, only is a issue if enough suckers buy off on it

Sorry, was this an advertisement post for your product?

 

[Hang 4]

Three aviation base stock capable refineries in CA - Torrance, Martinez, Carson. None of those are on the currently slated to close list. What I don't know is the production profile of each of those and how it might affect the portion allocated to avgas vs mogas. The two refineries that are closing are 17% of CA production capacity
Easy answer is price is likely to go up. Nothing to do with aviation and everything to do with CA politics. Chevron has moved their HQ to Texas for example.

 

[Hang 4]

Also your comment about availability in other places is often driven by the jet/piston mix in that area. Look at the around the world flight report that was up on POA a couple years ago. Can't remember the pilots name, but one of his major logistics challenges was getting 100LL to some of the airports he flew into as they pretty much only saw jets. Remote islands in the Pacific were one example. Cost must have been ungodly high, but not due to any dark forces, just no supply.

 

[AlphaPilotFlyer]

California has been trying to get rid of leaded AVGAS for decades when I was flying out of SMO and VNY, even threatening to arrest distributors at one point. I believe it’s still the first GA piston state, sometimes changing places with TX depending on matrix, then FL. There was talk of adding a a fee at some point for mitigating effects of lead emissions near airports but got a lot of resistance from flight schools that feared it would make them less cost competitive with other states and larger schools may move out. I remember one of the California refineries produced significant avgas for multiple states but not sure if still the case.

As a AVGAS consumption has decreased, so has some of the distribution options, which further placed pressure on price points. I spoke with fuel buyer for a FBO chain recently about their concerns for migrating off leaded gas by 2030…. told they are concerned bout limited distribution effecting smaller airports off normal truck supply routes, but not too concerned about larger markets. He added considering adding non ethanol mogas as more aircraft can use but considering if enough to warrant another fuel truck.

I hope any of the refineries slated to close don’t make avgas. Additional costs on top of typical state taxes could have significant effects on GA’s substantial market there, as well as boarding states.

Seems new LSA cat aircraft will likely become more primary aircraft option, which can burn rec mogas. I expect you will see operators using mostly this in next 3-5 years, or certified airplanes with mogas STC option , which would mitigate much of the risk and expense, as diesel options remain substantially more initial and operating expensive in markets as the US where mogas and STC’d fuels remain readily available. Most airports have mogas available for ground vehicles and equipment, just not advertised as for sale…..I have used this option a few times at different airports but taxes can become an issue as it’s not normally sold….so this could change as well if ethanol gas becomes a GA option, as well.

California often leads the win GA matters so hope there are additional options being considered as avgas days count down.

 

[Hang 4]

I hope any of the refineries slated to close don’t make avgas

You might read what I posted, none of the avgas refineries are on the current close list.