Forecast/outlook accuracy?

RyanB

RyanB

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Ryan
My 4th attempt at my checkride is supposed to be tuesday the 15th. On the prog charts its showing a cold front moving through the area that day and they are calling for a 50% chance of rain as of now. I know its still 5 days in advance but on average how accurate do you think this is? Are forecasts this far in the future accurate or could things change?
 
Try to fly mid morning. I think your front is in my yard right now. Clear AMs, but but 1400 the TS kick off. We have been getting BR till 0800 or so.

I'd say the progs are fairly reliable, but in any case, it's just a best guess.
 
Unit74 said:
Try to fly mid morning. I think your front is in my yard right now. Clear AMs, but but 1400 the TS kick off. We have been getting BR till 0800 or so.

I'd say the progs are fairly reliable, but in any case, it's just a best guess.
Click to expand...

I'm scheduled for a 9am ride, hopefully its intermittent. All i need is a 3 hour window. (crossing fingers) :wink2:
 
This will be good practice for your wx decision making. You will be staying close to home, preferably flying to the North in case you need to head South back to base. A cold front this time of year is usually a weak one, but always be prepared. As the front approaches on Monday, get back on here and we can discuss if you like. Good luck on your check ride.
 
5 days out... Anything can happen. All you can do is watch, study, and chair fly. I'd spend more time on the last two....
 
RV10flyer said:
This will be good practice for your wx decision making. You will be staying close to home, preferably flying to the North in case you need to head South back to base. A cold front this time of year is usually a weak one, but always be prepared. As the front approaches on Monday, get back on here and we can discuss if you like. Good luck on your check ride.
Click to expand...

Agreed on all parts! Wx practical real-world decision making will be a huge part of your life as a "pilot" and what a great way to use it early. You do what you would do if you were taking your family member on the same ride. You make the decision based on those factors and your personal minimums.
As far as the prog charts, they will show you patterns to watch for. So keep watching the forecasts as they develop for that area. Watch for patterns of weather that occur daily, weekly, etc. Try and use the tools to build a mental weather picture in your mind of what you think it will be. Then you adjust as you get closer, and eventually in the plane.

You'll do great!
 
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