For my 7 year-old Niece

Rigged4Flight said:
... I'm fairly certain that global warming was not caused by humans.
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Based on what?

Some of us look for correlations or lack thereof in the data before making such strong conclusions. If this is based on wishful thinking, it is highly counterproductive noise.

The thing is, natural variability can be measured by several methods, and compared to recent variability. Those who discount them because the conclusions are inconvenient either don't understand it or have agendas.
 
PuertoRicoFlyer said:
No. An airplane flies due to relative wind over the wing regardless of what is happening across the ground. If the treadmill is going backwards at the same speed the airplane is "trying" to move forward the relative wind speed is 0 and it goes nowhere. But if the airplane moves forward faster than the treadmil is going backwards then the relative wind over the wing may be enough to get it airborne.

Just like taking off with a tailwind, flying a glider or lifting off in a helicopter. B)
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4owlyCOzDiE

Once the plane overcomes the initial rolling friction of the wheels then it'll move forward, the same as if there were not treadmill. It's counter intuitive but that's the way it works.
 
MAKG1 said:
Based on what?

Some of us look for correlations or lack thereof in the data before making such strong conclusions. If this is based on wishful thinking, it is highly counterproductive noise.

The thing is, natural variability can be measured by several methods, and compared to recent variability. Those who discount them because the conclusions are inconvenient either don't understand it or have agendas.
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Okay.

The earth has been warming ever since the ice sheets that started during the Pleistocene period stopped advancing. Find a scientist that disagrees with that statement.

Since that time, the Earth has been gradually getting warmer. Find a scientist that disagrees with that statement.

This happened without human involvement. In fact, there is considerable evidence that the Earth has done this before, and no human involvement has ever been necessary for the process to start. Find a scientist that disagrees with that statement.

Just like any ice cube left on a counter in a room with a higher-than-freezing temperature, the rate that the ice melts increases as the volume of ice decreases and a larger percentage of the remaining ice is exposed to the warmer air. I personally believe this is what we are seeing with the remainder of the global ice sheets. It makes sense logically, but I admit that I am not a scientist and my understanding of the facts may be off.

Please don't misunderstand what I'm saying. I'm not saying that it's okay to trash the planet, and I'm not saying that humans have no effect on the rate of global warming. I'm saying that there needs to be some logic and truth applied to our decision making. Because if it's important enough to warrant the attention of the entire world, then it's important enough to remove the hype and FUD factor so that we can make informed and considered decisions.
 
No one is claiming the climate wouldn't warm at all without human involvement. On the other hand, there are some people with certain political agendas that claim that human involvement makes no difference.

You're arguing against a straw man.

Though a couple of your details are wrong. Warming since the Pleistocene has not been monotonic, even with the usual 30 year smoothing.
 
MAKG1 said:
You're arguing against a straw man.
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As are you. Neither of my posts claimed that humanity had zero effect on global warming.

Though a couple of your details are wrong. Warming since the Pleistocene has not been monotonic, even with the usual 30 year smoothing.
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I didn't say that there weren't peaks or valleys in the warming. There was a time when the earth was a virtual freezer compared to today. The intervening years between that time and now have seen a significant climate change. That process began and continued for centuries with zero involvement by humans. I have no doubt that humanity can speed the process up, but I highly doubt that humanity can stop it, even if we removed every trace of humans from the planet overnight. It started without our involvement, and it will run its course with or without our involvement. The only question is how fast.

The global climate engine is much, much more powerful than anything we can bring to the table.
 
Rigged4Flight said:
As are you. Neither of my posts claimed that humanity had zero effect on global warming.

I didn't say that there weren't peaks or valleys in the warming. There was a time when the earth was a virtual freezer compared to today. The intervening years between that time and now have seen a significant climate change. That process began and continued for centuries with zero involvement by humans. I have no doubt that humanity can speed the process up, but I highly doubt that humanity can stop it, even if we removed every trace of humans from the planet overnight. It started without our involvement, and it will run its course with or without our involvement. The only question is how fast.

The global climate engine is much, much more powerful than anything we can bring to the table.
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Dude, "I'm fairly certain global warming wasn't caused by humans" is a quite strong statement that is categorically wrong. That is not a straw man. It's probably poor communication on your part.

Your statement above about the "global climate engine" is also wrong; it doesn't understand feedback control, and if it's true, transistors don't work and you're not using a computer right now because they are impossible.

These are not straw men. They are YOUR statements.

You also said
Since that time, the Earth has been gradually getting warmer.
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This is also wrong -- it's pretty clear it wasn't gradual during the entire most recent interglacial period -- and it does imply no significant peaks and valleys.
 
Right. This isn't the SZ and one of us has to stop before the thread is locked. It will be me.
 
I've enjoyed all of the posts responding to my question. :)
 
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