Fly IFR or VFR

[MyassisDragon]

Just got back from a quick trip to pick up a kid from college it was about 30 minutes each way and I found myself in a quandary and would like to know what some other seasoned pilots would have done.

When I departed (non ice plane)
- A low pressure front just passed about an hour before (was still 30.5 on ALT)
-Temp dew point spread was around 2 degree (-10 & - 12)
-Icing AIRMET surface to 18000msl
-Ceilings were 2000-2800AGL for the entire route
-Light snow was predicted in the general area
- MVFR conditions the whole route (and all day on the TAF)
-A few surrounding airports were Broken 2200 Overcast 6-7000

My gut was saying I would get a double layer of clouds and be clear at 4-5000 foot, so here is what I ended up doing.

I filed for IFR clearance on both legs of the trip at 4000 & 5000 respectively, Took off from un towered airports (each way) and contacted approach, but instead of opening my IFR clearance on file I just requested flight following and remained clear of clouds around 2700ft in VFR with some snow.

My thought was if I could find a broken layer I could see if it was double layer and had some clear space to fly in but I didnt want to take a chance going into VMC cloud with such a close DP/Temp spread only to find find out it was solid crud up to 10k or something (its only a 30 minute flight)

It wasnt until on my way home did the clouds break up enough to see that I was indeed flying under a thin low cloud layer from the front and that the second layer was indeed up there around the 7000 mark.

I dont love flying in MVFR with snow conditions at 2500ft (not quite scud running but not a many options for an out) but it seemed much more conservative than jumping up into the clouds for that chance of clear sky.

Keep in mind I do live along the lakeshore in Michigan so its snowing 6 days a week here and MVFR flight in snow is pretty common on almost every flight I make in winter so this is not the question at hand

The question I have for all the experienced IFR pilots here is, What Would you have done???
1) Opened the IFR clearance and flown to the first assigned altitude to see what was there?
2) Did what I did and remain clear of cloud VFR but in snow?
3) Or are there other options?

I look back and see I could have easily had a cool flight in clear air between two decks of clouds, but I didnt, and am a little bummed.

Fine print : Please don't quote regs regarding the legality of filing IFR when there is an icing Airmet or that snow is known ice ect, I understand the regulations and that is not the topic here.

 

[JHW]

A review of the skew t chart might have confirmed your gut about the 2 layers. Still, you did nothing wrong. For such a short flight I would have planned it VFR just the way you flew it.

 

[frfly172]

Think the VFR flight was a good. Choice given the circumstances. Why play with icing if you don't have to.

 

[MyassisDragon]

A review of the skew t chart might have confirmed your gut about the 2 layers.

I have done a little research regarding the Skew-T charts but still find it a little confusing.

Any suggestions for learning to use them (layman's format of course)?

 

[peerlesscowboy]

...............
- A low pressure front just passed about an hour before (was still 30.5 on ALT)

......................................................

My thought was if I could find a broken layer I could see if it was double layer and had some clear space to fly in but I didnt want to take a chance going into VMC cloud with such a close DP/Temp spread only to find find out it was solid crud up to 10k or something (its only a 30 minute flight)

It wasnt until on my way home did the clouds break up enough to see that I was indeed flying under a thin low cloud layer from the front and that the second layer was indeed up there around the 7000 mark.

................................

I look back and see I could have easily had a cool flight in clear air between two decks of clouds, but I didnt, and am a little bummed.

Keep in mind that the weather is dynamic, if you were flying the first flight just behind the front that had "just passed about an hour before" you might assume that the visibly improved conditions you observed later on the return flight wouldn't have been present for the earlier flight. That's not to say the first flight wouldn't have been safe to make IFR but that conditions would certainly have been worse closer behind the front.
All that said, what would I have done? Prob'ly would have depended somewhat on how widespread were the marginal visibilities in snow. For a short 30 minute flight if they were snow showers that I could easily deviate around I'd prob'ly just go VFR. OTOH if conditions were widespread minus five miles in light snow I'd prob'ly pick up the clearance.

 

[peerlesscowboy]

Just got back from a quick trip to pick up a kid from college it was about 30 minutes each way and I found myself in a quandary and would like to know what some other seasoned pilots would have done.

When I departed (non ice plane)
- A low pressure front just passed about an hour before (was still 30.5 on ALT)

..................................

3) Or are there other options?

Another option if there was concern about the weather might have been to delay the flight a few hours?

 

[midlifeflyer]

I have done a little research regarding the Skew-T charts but still find it a little confusing.

Any suggestions for learning to use them (layman's format of course)?

Best choice is still ultimately membership at Scott's http://avwxworkshops.com/. His courss and material are the best and always completely up-to-date. But for a good intro course check out Ed Williams' "Weather in the Vertical." It's in 2 parts and available on YouTube:

Part 1 of the presentation, dealing primarily with parcel theory, stability and its efects is at http://youtu.be/2pMYkSwZp0g .

Part 2, dealing primarily with the Skew T itself is at http://youtu.be/SU_ecI-vcNY.

Even if you're only interested in the Skew T itself, I recommend both programs unless you already have a basic grounding in parcel theory. After all, it one thing to be able to read the graph; it's entirely another to understand what it is telling you.

Disclaimer:
As some already know, I was tangentially involved in the project some 3 or so years after the fact. Some may recognize Ed Williams as a pilot/instructor/professor formerly out of Livermore, CA, perhaps best known in aviation circles for his "Aviation Formulary," a work on the calculations used in aviation. The YouTube videos are bases on two 2008 talks Ed did for a pilot group at his home base.

Ed made his presentation avaiable on his website (http://williams.best.vwh.net/) as a pdf of the presentation slides and downloadable mp3 audio, which is how I came across it. I thought the material worthwhile enough to ask Ed if he would mind sending me the PowerPoint files so I could edit it into a self-running video presentation.

Strictly selfish - it would make it easier for me to watch and learn.

 

[Blatham489]

I know you're looking for weather analysis in order to learn but the practical answer for a 30minute flight is to drive. I have to believe the door to door time is essentially the same with much lower risk.

 

[MyassisDragon]

Had a good discussion with a seasoned pilot friend last night about this trip and he confirmed my choice (not that I was questioning this) would have been his but the initial reason he gave without even thinking about it was different, thought I would share.

First thing he asked about was the MEA and MOCA, well they were 3000 and the MOCA was about 2700.
Since I was flying at 2500-2700 and just barley remaining VFR had I opened the IFR clearance and found ice at 4-5000 ATC may not have been able to get me back down to a vectoring altitude below the clouds and out of ice. So my out would have been questionable.