Flooding Creating Weather?

Jay Honeck

Jay Honeck

Touchdown! Greaser!
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
11,571
Location
Ingleside, TX
Display Name
Jay Honeck
Home Airfield
KTFP - Ingleside, TX
Here in South Texas, we have been getting massive amounts of rain. For the last five months, lines of storms have swept through ever 24 - 72 hours, dumping unheard of amounts of rain. Last week alone, my island received 15 inches of rain!

When we fly around here now, during the brief respite between storms, the area is starting to look like the Everglades. Farmers who lost their crops during our awful 5 year drought have now lost them due to flooding. Everything is waterlogged and/or submerged.

During this period I have noticed that our aviation weather forecasts have grown increasingly inaccurate. Almost every day, they call for "4000 BKN" (for example), and we end up with 1200 SCT, with multiple broken layers.

So, long story short: Are we seeing localized weather being generated by 10,000 square miles of standing water? Are these cloud layers becoming self-generating?

When I lived up North, we had a phenomenon each winter that meant it would get colder -- and stay cold longer -- once we had a solid snowcover. Made sense, since once you've covered 10,000 square miles with ice you've created a giant cooler. Are we seeing something similar in Texas?
 
Jay Honeck said:
During this period I have noticed that our aviation weather forecasts have grown increasingly inaccurate. Almost every day, they call for "4000 BKN" (for example), and we end up with 1200 SCT, with multiple broken layers.

So, long story short: Are we seeing localized weather being generated by 10,000 square miles of standing water? Are these cloud layers becoming self-generating?
Click to expand...
My guess would be yes, but it's hard to believe the local forecast office (which generates the TAFs) isn't taking water vapor from standing water evap into account. Are these cloud layers widespread? How much local variation has there been in rainfall? Maybe you just got inundated on the island and the rest of the area was less hard hit? Remember that TAFs are only intended for use within something like 5 miles of the airport they're published for.
When I lived up North, we had a phenomenon each winter that meant it would get colder -- and stay cold longer -- once we had a solid snowcover. Made sense, since once you've covered 10,000 square miles with ice you've created a giant cooler. Are we seeing something similar in Texas?
Click to expand...
That's part of it, but also remember that snow-covered ground is white. Duh, right? But being white, it also reflects more of the Sun's energy than ground that isn't covered by snow. More energy reflected means less absorbed, therefore less heating.

But no question that lots of standing water on the ground is going to mean lots of fog and low clouds for a while. It's very hard to believe the weather forecast wouldn't take that into account unless it's very localized, and even so, there should be some mention of it in the forecast discussions.

Edited to add: just checked the sectional and your closest TAF is probably KNGP, right? Too far away to be useful, and as MAKG points out you're on an island.

Have you considered getting an instrument rating?
 
Last edited:
Jay, you live on a barrier island. What's so unusual about having lots of water around?
 
This is a picture I took last month of the areas around our airport, which is on the mainland. This was taken BEFORE last weeks epic rain. Those fields are normally dry.

0c980b9f9b9d3246d149c37a63624067.jpg


Here's what our island airport looked like a few days ago. There is NOT supposed to be a lake behind Mary. That's where we usually park airplanes!

9feff91aed7c007a5b0feb3f4ffc6b6c.jpg


It's been incredible. Lake Corpus Christi (our main source of drinking water) went from critically low to overflowing in just a few months.
 
MAKG1 said:
Jay, you live on a barrier island. What's so unusual about having lots of water around?
Click to expand...
The weather is often quite different over our island, versus just a few miles inland. Often (in normal times), it will be crystal clear over the island and overcast over the land.

I always attributed this to the sun heating the dry land, versus the relatively cooler water. Well, now the water extends many miles inland, essentially, thanks to flooded fields -- but instead of extending the clear skies inland it seems to have extended the overcast? Nah, I don't think it works that way.

More likely, we are simply in a devastatingly persistent rainy weather pattern which is overriding that local phenomenon.

I have read that the Everglades creates it's own localized weather. It seems we might be seeing some of that?
 
azure said:
Have you considered getting an instrument rating?
Click to expand...

Although there are instances when the IR would help, that's not what is preventing us (and everyone else) from flying down here.

We are still flying every few days, as always -- but we don't dare fly any distance from home for fear of being trapped behind or under one of these long-lived lines of storms that keep developing and persisting. It's the same with everyone I talk to -- they just can't risk it, so they drive, instead, or just stay home.

We went from a historic drought and water rationing to historic flooding in a very few months. The only good thing: I have never seen South Texas so incredibly GREEN.
 
Lucky break. Not long ago cattlemen were selling herds, pictures of baked farm land, etc. Good for the aquifer , good for the future.
 
Jimmy cooper said:
Lucky break. Not long ago cattlemen were selling herds, pictures of baked farm land, etc. Good for the aquifer , good for the future.
Click to expand...
Yes, but it can stop now! All the lakes are full to overflowing.

Personally, I love a good drought. Nothing is better for a beach community, my business, or flying.
 
We've gone from historic drought to a 500 year flood in only 4 weeks here in WFalls. This is our 2nd 500-yr flood in 8 years.
 
While those of us in the Central Texas area have also seem unbelievable amounts of rain our lakes are still below 50% but rising...woohoo!.
Unfortunately the chances for flying are fewer here also. I had to cancel an IFR flight this morning because all the surrounding airports were below minimums.
Used to be when you thought of flying in Texas you thought hot and dry and sunshine....like those to the south it feels like the whole nature of weather has changed here. It seems we get rain daily and overcast.
I have an office with enough windows that usually during the day time I don't need a light. I have a light on almost every day.
Pretty strange weather.
The rivers are so muddy with run off I havent even tried flyfishing in what is usually gin clear spring fed limestone rivers.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Although there are instances when the IR would help, that's not what is preventing us (and everyone else) from flying down here.

We are still flying every few days, as always -- but we don't dare fly any distance from home for fear of being trapped behind or under one of these long-lived lines of storms that keep developing and persisting. It's the same with everyone I talk to -- they just can't risk it, so they drive, instead, or just stay home.

We went from a historic drought and water rationing to historic flooding in a very few months. The only good thing: I have never seen South Texas so incredibly GREEN.
Click to expand...
Too bad you can't just split the rain with California, where they're still in dire need.

Eventually the weather pattern will change. It has to, it's the nature of the beast. Here in the Northeast we suffered through one of the harshest winters anyone can remember, with a polar airmass in place for what seemed like forever. Then a couple of weeks ago everything changed and we had to open windows and run fans to keep cool (very few houses have AC up here). Then tonight there's a freeze warning out again, but by next week we should be flirting with 90 again.

Hopefully the crops will survive - that's what I'd worry about most.
 
Send some of that rain over here to Cali. I will gladly give up some flying days to get some water here. We are in serious trouble right now.

-Brian
 
AustinFisher said:
While those of us in the Central Texas area have also seem unbelievable amounts of rain our lakes are still below 50% but rising...woohoo!
Click to expand...

Good, I was hoping that the Austin area was getting some of this too. Lake Travis is a mudhole.

Texoma on the other hand is reported to be 18ft OVER!
 
Jay Honeck said:
This is a picture I took last month of the areas around our airport, which is on the mainland. This was taken BEFORE last weeks epic rain. Those fields are normally dry.

0c980b9f9b9d3246d149c37a63624067.jpg


Here's what our island airport looked like a few days ago. There is NOT supposed to be a lake behind Mary. That's where we usually park airplanes!

9feff91aed7c007a5b0feb3f4ffc6b6c.jpg


It's been incredible. Lake Corpus Christi (our main source of drinking water) went from critically low to overflowing in just a few months.
Click to expand...

Can you ship some that extra water into the Colorado River? It will flow to where needed from there. We need to fill up Lake Mead.
 
Forecast models are probably having trouble handling all the new moisture. What are the forecast dewpoints compared to actual?
 
Local radio here was saying that despite all the rain and all the flooding and all the lakes (except one) being above capacity, we still have not recovered from the drought. Once the rain stops, we will need to be careful about using water again. Don't know how much more rain it will take to fix that.

Edit: We cannot fly because the taxiways and runway are too soft. The other day hubby got the riding mower stuck in the mud and we had to let it sit out overnight to get the ground hard enough to shove it out.
 
Here's a picture of our beach, taken today. There are tens of thousands of tourists here for the Memorial Day holiday, and they are making do -- but the beach road is in bad shape.

It's amazing what massive rainfall every few days for FIVE MONTHS will do. That area next to the (VERY green) dunes is the "Beach Road", and is normally as nice as a paved highway, even though it's hard-packed sand. (They run a road grader up and down it daily, to keep it smooth.)

BTW: Until recently, those dunes were nothing but bare sand with a very thin layer of hardy grass in spots. Now, they look like verdant hills up North!

11231865_850278115008084_7707687187372173552_o.jpg
 
Jay Honeck said:
Yes, but it can stop now! All the lakes are full to overflowing.

Personally, I love a good drought. Nothing is better for a beach community, my business, or flying.
Click to expand...

But.. Lake Travis still has 32 feet to go until its full... Its up 10 feet in the past few days and 20 feet in a month..
 
It's turning into May 1990 around here. There was some pretty bad flooding, especially in Hot Springs.
 
Doggtyred said:
But.. Lake Travis still has 32 feet to go until its full... Its up 10 feet in the past few days and 20 feet in a month..
Click to expand...

It went up 8.75' between Saturday morning and Sunday morning.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top