F33 Bonanza down in Oklahoma City - 3 Fatal

srp_4737

srp_4737

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sr_4737
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Appears weather changed drastically right around the time the accident occured which was 6 December 0320z (5 December 9:20pm).

KRCE 060255Z AUTO 02009KT 10SM CLR 11/09 A2975 RMK AO2
KRCE 060315Z AUTO 01010KT 10SM CLR 11/09 A2975 RMK AO2
KRCE 060415Z AUTO 03013G18KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC003 10/10 A2977 RMK AO2
KRCE 060535Z AUTO 04012KT M1/4SM FG OVC002 10/10 A2978 RMK AO2
KRCE 060815Z AUTO 04006KT 1/2SM FG OVC002 10/10 A2978 RMK AO2
KRCE 060835Z AUTO 36005KT 1/2SM BR OVC002 10/10 A2979 RMK AO2

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N9142Q/history/20221206/0315Z/KRCE/KRCE
 
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That is a quick change with the weather, though, 0320z it still looked ok.
 
dang; <1hr from caam to lifr.

who is the dude with the historical taf google-fu?
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
dang; <1hr from caam to lifr.

who is the dude with the historical taf google-fu?
Click to expand...

LOL. It's actually historical METAR data, not TAF.

http://aviationwxchartsarchive.com/product/metar

Airport was closed for a while yesterday... not sure if it was related. Pilot's name is Chris Lamb. Pretty active on Facebook with his flying endeavors recently and seems decently experienced. Airman database shows ASEL, AML, Instrument Airplane. The accident airplane is in his cover photo on FB.
 
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srp_4737 said:
LOL. It's actually historical METAR data, not TAF.

http://aviationwxchartsarchive.com/product/metar

Airport was closed for a while yesterday... not sure if it was related. Pilot's name is Chris Lamb. Pretty active on Facebook with his flying endeavors recently and seems decently experienced. Airman database shows ASEL, AML, Instrument Airplane. The accident airplane is in his cover photo on FB.
Click to expand...

No, we used the historical tafs on the KGAI Mooney-in-the-wires event to know what the pilot was being fed as predicted weather. We need the historical TAFs here.
edit: LOL backacha.
 
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Let'sgoflying! said:
dang; <1hr from caam to lifr.

who is the dude with the historical taf google-fu?
Click to expand...

KOKC 051739Z 0518/0618 22013KT P6SM SKC
FM060000 02011KT P6SM SCT250
FM060500 36007KT 3SM BR BKN008
FM060900 34006KT 1/2SM FG OVC002
FM061600 33008KT 2SM BR OVC005

KOKC 052325Z 0600/0624 02009KT P6SM SCT200
FM060400 03010KT 4SM BR OVC008
TEMPO 0610/0614 1SM BR OVC003
FM061700 33009KT P6SM BKN012
FM062100 34007KT P6SM
 
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Thanks

hmm I'da been concerned.
Not saying I'm a better interpreter of the weather but you definitely knew there was something coming.

KOKC 051739Z 0518/0618 22013KT P6SM SKC
FM060000 02011KT P6SM SCT250
FM060500 36007KT 3SM BR BKN008
KOKC 052325Z 0600/0624 02009KT P6SM SCT200
FM060400 03010KT 4SM BR OVC008 TEMPO 0610/0614 1SM BR OVC003
Click to expand...
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
Thanks

hmm I'da been concerned.
Not saying I'm a better interpreter of the weather but you definitely knew there was something coming.
Click to expand...

Well, that’s the second accident in two weeks where we’ve seen a TAF indicate something coming, but the timing was a little off and seemed to catch folks off guard. Granted, there’s a bit of survivorship bias there - I guarantee this happens all the time, but flights complete safely. As with the GAI accident, I’d like to go back and see the big picture forecast charts - progs, etc. TAF is only a part of the story.
 
Flying Keys said:
..we’ve seen a TAF indicate something coming, but the timing was a little off and seemed to catch folks off guard...
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Thus year especially, the models and forecasts in general seem to be underperforming relative to other years.

I’d really like to see batting averages for the forecasts, models, and forecasters because right now I’m having a hard time trusting anything coming out of my local weather office and the EWC.
 
TCABM said:
Thus year especially, the models and forecasts in general seem to be underperforming relative to other years.

I’d really like to see batting averages for the forecasts, models, and forecasters because right now I’m having a hard time trusting anything coming out of my local weather office and the EWC.
Click to expand...

I’d love to see an analysis of that as well. The data exist, you just have to commission someone to do a study. Theoretically, you could go back several decades.
 
It gets back to pilots using their skilled skepticism to anticipate forecast failure.

When I see good ones I am hopeful - but truly, I plan for a complete disconnect from reality.

If there is bad weather predicted 2 hours after my arrival time, I'm thinking it certainly could be there when I arrive.
 
I find a weather map as useful as anything. Definitely enough weirdness on OKC that day to be extra dialed in on conditions.

weather okc.PNG
 
TCABM said:
Thus year especially, the models and forecasts in general seem to be underperforming relative to other years.

I’d really like to see batting averages for the forecasts, models, and forecasters because right now I’m having a hard time trusting anything coming out of my local weather office and the EWC.
Click to expand...

I would be happy to go through the historical forecasts and correlate them with the actual recorded weather data of that day, and provide average accuracy numbers for you, as long as I get a sufficient commission for doing so. :D
 
Ed Haywood said:
I find a weather map as useful as anything. Definitely enough weirdness on OKC that day to be extra dialed in on conditions.

View attachment 113013
Click to expand...
Oh for sure, prog charts are absolutely useful for the big picture, especially if you have the ability to interpret them.

Low pressure moving overhead/nearby, warm front pushing ahead, dragging a trough and a cold front behind? Probably not a good day to be flying a small airplane VFR. Depending on the wind, icing, and convective situation, might not be good at all. But if nothing else, it should alert you that things are going to change pretty soon.
 
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