Extended Weather Maps and Discussions

SCCutler

SCCutler

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Spike Cutler
I recall seeing, from time to time, maps and discussions of weather beyond the 48-hour timeframe I find at ADDS. I refer to NWS weather, not a commercial product.

Can anyone guide me?
 
spike,

on any NWS website, type your favorite city/state to get the weather. down towards the bottom, after the 7 day forecast etc. is a box of "Additional Forecast Information" and included in there is "Forecast Discussion" which I think is what you are looking for.
 
http://www.accuweather.com

Click on 15 day forecast for your zip code. Although, as you know, that long out typically doesn't have much accuracy.
 
Spike,

My favorite is this:
http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi
I think it is just the output of a model and isn't super accurate. But does it matter? Long-range forecasts for aviation are nearly worthless anyways. This just makes me feel better with pretty pictures :)
 
jesse said:
Spike,

My favorite is this:
http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi
I think it is just the output of a model and isn't super accurate. But does it matter? Long-range forecasts for aviation are nearly worthless anyways. This just makes me feel better with pretty pictures :)
Click to expand...

USAirnet is probably the most accurate medium-range tool there is. I've been using it extensively for years, and it's surprisingly accurate.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
USAirnet is probably the most accurate medium-range tool there is. I've been using it extensively for years, and it's surprisingly accurate.
Click to expand...

I agree. And like Jesse, I like the visual presentation of trends like visibility, winds, and ceilings.
 
scottd said:
Yes, it does matter. When no TAF is issued beyond 24 hours (except for 30 hours for 32 high-impact airports), knowing what might occur at an airport 48 hours from now may be useful.
Click to expand...
Scott--I think you might have misinterpreted me. I meant, that the model isn't all that accurate, but as a long range tool it doesn't matter that much because few of them are.

As far as planning a flight or any decision around a 48 hour forecast..I don't bother..I just don't understand weather as well as you do and have found that what determines a go/no go for me is a very fine line that a weather model doesn't have the resolution for. Basically, I have yet to make a decision based on a 48 hour forecast that is right the majority of the time. I really don't even bother anymore.
 
i really like using the MOS forecasts that are buried in the NWS site, as scott suggests. they give a national "big" picture vs. the local snapshot you get from USAirnet.
 
I can often scrub a mission on a 48-hour forecast, if it's bad enough and the cost of late-cancellation is significant... but I always remain ready to cxl on short notice if the WX calls for it.

I am a weather *****, and that's OK by me.
 
SCCutler said:
I can often scrub a mission on a 48-hour forecast, if it's bad enough and the cost of late-cancellation is significant... but I always remain ready to cxl on short notice if the WX calls for it.

I am a weather *****, and that's OK by me.
Click to expand...
Understand Spike--makes perfect sense if you must make the trip.
 
jesse said:
As far as planning a flight or any decision around a 48 hour forecast..I don't bother..I just don't understand weather as well as you do and have found that what determines a go/no go for me is a very fine line that a weather model doesn't have the resolution for. Basically, I have yet to make a decision based on a 48 hour forecast that is right the majority of the time. I really don't even bother anymore.
Click to expand...
I think it's important to look at long range forecasts as tools to understand what's out there, not to make a go/no-go decision (in all but the easiest of circumstances).

I'll agree long range forecasts are not very helpful for short local flights but for longer flights I find them very useful. For me knowing what kind of weather to expect in a large area helps determine routing, and what kind of flying to expect, CAVU VFR or picking my way through LIFR.

Joe
 
Areeda said:
I think it's important to look at long range forecasts as tools to understand what's out there, not to make a go/no-go decision (in all but the easiest of circumstances).

I'll agree long range forecasts are not very helpful for short local flights but for longer flights I find them very useful. For me knowing what kind of weather to expect in a large area helps determine routing, and what kind of flying to expect, CAVU VFR or picking my way through LIFR.

Joe
Click to expand...

I suppose Joe--to each their own--I can't control the weather and just take what nature throws at me. If nature throws too much I don't fly. I don't stress myself out over the weather.

For me, looking at long range forecasts, generally provide little value because I don't make any decisions based on them. If I'm not going to make a decision that influences my flight I don't see a point in putting too much time towards watching them. I'm not going to drastically change my route. It is too expensive to do that--if I can't get there in a semi-direct fashion I won't be flying there.

The only real time that I bother with trying to look at weather more than about 12 hours in advance is when I must be there. If I must make it to the destination I calculate how long it will take me to drive and I make my go/no-go at that moment in time.
 
jesse said:
I suppose Joe--to each their own--I can't control the weather and just take what nature throws at me. If nature throws too much I don't fly. I don't stress myself out over the weather.

For me, looking at long range forecasts, generally provide little value because I don't make any decisions based on them.
Click to expand...
I understand and hope I didn't imply that you were doing anything wrong.

One of my favorite Dennstaedt quotes is that a surface analysis or weather depiction chart is like a photo of a pool table, it will tell what's out there but not what's happening. Well that's more of a paraphrase than a quote.

Looking at the last few days of surface analysis charts (like these) and the forecast charts is how I build my mental picture of what's going on so I can decide how it affect my flight.

Now don't get me wrong on this, I live in Southern California and for flights in the area, a headset, maybe a chart and some TFR awareness is all I need most of the time.

Joe
 
Areeda said:
...

Now don't get me wrong on this, I live in Southern California and for flights in the area, a headset, maybe a chart and some TFR awareness is all I need most of the time.

Joe
Click to expand...


...that, and thirty seconds of IMC flight per IFR clearance. :wink2:
 
Farmer's Almanac
 
I look at the week ahead forecast for the Jet Stream. Much more than that is hocus pocus.
 
I guess the way I see it, current weather metars, surface analysis, weather depiction tell me where things are but not what's going on while forecasts tell me what's going on but not where it will be (at least not very accurately).

Joe
 
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