Extended Go, No-Go

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Final Approach
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Ben
I'm making my MD-MA trip again. Seems like Wednesday will work, and I have the airplane reserved from Tuesday to Friday. C172 G1000, with excellent weather avoidance (on the displays, not the aircraft, of course!). Question is, Friday. Most of what I'm seeing looks like a crappy or nail-biting ride back! So here's the question: even if Wednesday is a Go, do you still go, not being sure what Friday might be like?
 
I'm making my MD-MA trip again. Seems like Wednesday will work, and I have the airplane reserved from Tuesday to Friday. C172 G1000, with excellent weather avoidance (on the displays, not the aircraft, of course!). Question is, Friday. Most of what I'm seeing looks like a crappy or nail-biting ride back! So here's the question: even if Wednesday is a Go, do you still go, not being sure what Friday might be like?

Ben,

What's the route again?
 
FWIW I don't believe in Santa, lottery and five days forecast. I would reserve the plane and decide go/no-go couple hours before departure.
 
I am with Artiom on this one. The only thing that is sure to happen with a five day forecast is that it will change five times. What happens if you can't get back Friday?
 
The cosequence of a failed return is the question. Any problem with coming back on sat or sun? The old saying is appropriate: Time to spare? Go by air!

As others have noted, watch the forecast and patterns then make the decision shortly before the flight. It helps to think through the delay contingencies beforehand. I'm still in the have an extra day mode on return flights and will leave early if it looks necessary.
 
Thanks guys!

The route is KFDK to 7B2, and it goes generally Northeastward, up through Lancaster, Scranton, Kingston, Bradely, then Northampton.
 
Ben, I haven't seen anywhere in this thread where you've stated the consequences of not being able to return Friday. I assume you must realize that no forecast will guarantee that you can make it home that day, even one issued Friday morning. If the need to make your schedule is very strong, flying yourself probably isn't a good idea regardless of the weather forecasts, you'd be putting too many eggs in one basket and too much pressure on yourself to complete the flight.
 
Ben, I haven't seen anywhere in this thread where you've stated the consequences of not being able to return Friday. I assume you must realize that no forecast will guarantee that you can make it home that day, even one issued Friday morning. If the need to make your schedule is very strong, flying yourself probably isn't a good idea regardless of the weather forecasts, you'd be putting too many eggs in one basket and too much pressure on yourself to complete the flight.

Thanks, Lance. I would really -like- to return Friday, but just in case, I've extended the reservation through Saturday. I hope that would be enough cushion!
 
Hey Ben,

You wouldn't happen to know when our new tower is scheduled to open?

And watch the NOTAMS. I understand that both the FDK VOR and the ILS are OTS. If so, the weather on the return becomes much more important.
 
And watch the NOTAMS. I understand that both the FDK VOR and the ILS are OTS. If so, the weather on the return becomes much more important.

They are, but there are a few GPS approaches which are almost as good as the ILS (in terms of minimums). It is a bit weird, though, that both the VOR and now the ILS is out.
 
I just love it when Scott shows up to a go/no-go thread. Thanks, Scott!
 
The cosequence of a failed return is the question. Any problem with coming back on sat or sun? The old saying is appropriate: Time to spare? Go by air!

As others have noted, watch the forecast and patterns then make the decision shortly before the flight. It helps to think through the delay contingencies beforehand. I'm still in the have an extra day mode on return flights and will leave early if it looks necessary.

Remember, it could be weather, Mx, or illness that keep you there. In any case, the smart thing is to accept that there is always a possibility that you won't be able to get back when planned. That goes for the airlines, as well as GA.

I think Scott being here is probably why these threads get posted - When he shows up, we learn! :yes:
Yup! I always appreciate Scott's input.

Coming back from New Orleans in March, I was watching the weather carefully, because there was a front moving in that was slated to totally block my path northward. I was all prepared to launch a day early in order to beat it, only to find that it travelled faster than expected, blocked my route out on Saturday, and gave me good weather on Sunday, my originally planned departure date. Thing is, I was all ready to launch on Saturday if the weather looked good. Flexibility is the name of the game here!

I typically find that I can leave later than planned and/or return earlier than planned in order to give the needed flexibility. I try, however, to set it up so that I could return a day later if needed with no adverse effects. Note that I'm not considering plane availability here. If I have to keep it an extra day or two, or even a week, in order to be safe, I'm going to do it. The FBO would MUCH rather inconvenience a handful of customers a week than to have to try to repair or replace a broken airplane, or, even worse, deal with an injured or (heaven forbid) deceased renter.

So the FBO knows when I'm going a long distance, and can take the measures they need to take. If Wx looks like it'll delay me, I'll inform them. I did that coming back from the Bahamas in 2005. Heck, coming back from the Bahamas, I was a ful week late because I had my father's death to deal with! I try to put down the day following my planned return as a tentative day off from work and avoid scheduling meetings if possible. Work knows I fly, and I am going to make the decision that will keep me alive, not trying to make it to a meeting in which I can just as well participate via conference call. Hopefully, from the Bahamas, Key West or New Orleans! :)
 
Not sure what day you were planning to leave, but assuming you were planning to leave today (Tues) or tomorrow (Wed) that appears to be more of an issue than your return trip on Friday. I see a risk of thunder on both days along your route. Right now, early Tues, I believe is the best opportunity, but the overcast will begin to build down throughout the day based on forecast soundings.

We're thinking of leaving tomorrow morning. The aircraft does have weather uplink AND a stromscope, so as long as ATC cooperates, I think it might work.

So, you think Friday looks alright? Up in New England, the surface weather looks like rain and lower 50s. That would give me about to 4,000 feet for the freezing level, right?
 
Well, the biggest threat of thunder is going to be between 20Z and 23Z tomorrow. Appears that a line of storms will develop and move through the route. But that's not the worst threat.

I don't like the looks of the IFR conditions that will exist tomorrow morning in the Northeast. Like I said, Tuesday morning was your best opportunity. Depending on your destination you could be facing ceilings in the low or very low IFR category especially as you get closer to the coastline.

I see. I am current, and just last week shot approaches with my CFII in actual--bumpy, and unstable CU and rain. We will leave at around 14Z, and arrive at about 16:30Z, so I guess we can avoid the thunder.


Actually if you are using the standard lapse rate to calculate the freezing level, then you are going to be disappointed most of the time. Given the cold air moving in on Friday, the freezing level will likely be a couple thousand feet AGL. But if you look at the weather on Thursday, the surface temps are going to be about the same as Friday, but the freezing level will be greater than 12,000 feet. The standard lapse rate should NEVER enter into your preflight weather analysis as I mention in this e-Tip that I sent to my members.

Thanks for that tip! Well, then I hope it is clear, because there are very few MEAs that are only 2,000 MSL around the area. If I go, I guess I'll have to be careful of that one!
 
Also depends on your comfort level with turb.

Even with a plane with twin turbos, FIKI, O2, NEXRAD and a ceiling of 25k, I think twice when there are big frontal systems -- anything with convective possibility gives me pause.

If it's a question of yellow/red returns, no lightning, no CB, well, depends on how widespread, and a lot of other factors. Do I REALLY need to make the flight? Like, REAAAAALLLLLYY? Enough to want to deal with the nonsense? Will I have pax? My family has varying degrees of stomach for turbulence and, obviously, I am limited by the lowest common denominator.

Plus, what will winds be like? Shear?? I had a really exciting landing on Sun coming home from FLA. At 15k things were great, with a nice tailwind push. Dropping through 6k, things got unfun, and final was a real treat with direct 18g26 crosswinds. Runway was 22. Wind at 4k was 60@280. Ya gotta come down, if yer gonna go up.

Follow Yoda Dennstadt! He preaches a "total awareness" of weather which i have found extremely useful in making my go-no go decisions.

In the end, I repeat the perennial truism: It's better to be on the ground, wishing you were in the air, than on the ground, wishing you were in the air.

It's a really effective go-no go decision tool. Seriously.
 
In the end, I repeat the perennial truism: It's better to be on the ground, wishing you were in the air, than on the ground, wishing you were in the air.

Uhhhh... What? :dunno:

Was that a Freudian thing? Or should there be a ≥ instead of a > there, to make it mathematically correct? ;)
 
Hello everyone!

I woke up early and called the briefer, then looked at the weather. I decided to go--with the airlines. Here was my reasoning:

I knew I -could- make the trip, since I'm current and proficient, but I knew that conditions would be low. Also there would be turbulence. That, combined with the fact that I was taking my wife (who can get queasy), made me think about how much I didn't want to be searching for alternates in the bumpy soup.

Next, I couldn't NOT make this trip, and though I could extend to Saturday, I really -should- be home Friday. Coming back tomorrow would be too early. A set-up for "get-there-itis," maybe? Another few points for the airlines.

Finally, though I have nexrad and stormscope, there was supposed to be a heavy line of thunderstorms I would be outrunning. (I don't know if they came or not.)

I felt stupid and even a bit emasculated on the airliner with my wife, but she understood that I was going with safety first. THEN, on approach, we got good bumps in the soup, and landed out of a real low overcast. I asked the pilots, and they said it was right at minimums. (The METAR said KBAF 202353Z 18003KT 7SM OVC005 08/07 A2979. . .--so not quite, I guess, BUT--the pilots were the ones flying and observing!)

As we drove to our destination from the airport, we encountered heavy fog and rain, and it has been this way up until now.

Thank you, Scott! And I hope this helps others!
 
Last edited:
Hello everyone!

I woke up early and called the briefer, then looked at the weather. I decided to go--with the airlines. Here was my reasoning:

I knew I -could- make the trip, since I'm current and proficient, but I knew that conditions would be low. Also there would be turbulence. That, combined with the fact that I was taking my wife (who can get queasy), made me think about how much I didn't want to be searching for alternates in the bumpy soup.

Next, I couldn't NOT make this trip, and though I could extend to Saturday, I really -should- be home Friday. Coming back tomorrow would be too early. A set-up for "get-there-itis," maybe? Another few points for the airlines.

Finally, though I have nexrad and stormscope, there was supposed to be a heavy line of thunderstorms I would be outrunning. (I don't know if they came or not.)

I felt stupid and even a bit emasculated on the airliner with my wife, but she understood that I was going with safety first. THEN, on approach, we got good bumps in the soup, and landed out of a real low overcast. I asked the pilots, and they said it was right at minimums. (The METAR said KBAF 202353Z 18003KT 7SM OVC005 08/07 A2979. . .--so not quite, I guess, BUT--the pilots were the ones flying and observing!)

As we drove to our destination from the airport, we encountered heavy fog and rain, and it has been this way up until now.

Thank you, Scott! And I hope this helps others!
Sure sounds like you made the right decision! While I've certainly been disappointed that I wasn't able to do a flight by GA, I've never regretted making the no-go decision. Now you'll have a chance to do it all again sometime! AND your wife will continue to be willing to fly with you, as she knows that you have her safety and comfort in mind. Congrats!
 
Ben I would have figured that one to be a lot of work even with FIKI. Had to have a darned good reason to do that one in the bird.
 
Sure sounds like you made the right decision! While I've certainly been disappointed that I wasn't able to do a flight by GA, I've never regretted making the no-go decision. Now you'll have a chance to do it all again sometime! AND your wife will continue to be willing to fly with you, as she knows that you have her safety and comfort in mind. Congrats!

Thanks, and good point about what one's wife thinks!
 
Ben I would have figured that one to be a lot of work even with FIKI. Had to have a darned good reason to do that one in the bird.

Thanks Bruce. I was thinking about would I have gone even in an airplane equipped like yours!
 
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