Exactly how rough?

dell30rb

dell30rb

Final Approach
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Ren
I'm taking two first timers on a trip this evening from Sanford NC to Wilmington NC. Departing about 6PM. Should take just under an hour. A cold front has just come through and its quite blustery, forecasting 10g28 subsiding to 9 knots at 7pm. Sky clear at departure and destination

My concern is that there is an airmet tango for low level turbulence (15,000 - SFC) along my entire route of flight. No wind shear or anything, and the winds at my destination should be reasonable so I'm not concerned about safety. However i'm worried about my passengers decorating the airplane with vomit. What are the odds I can find an altitude that is relatively free of turbulence?
 
I would not make that flight with first timers.
 
If the winds will die down that much in 2 hours I'd just wait 2 hours to depart (you're night current for pax, right?). Also, introduce the first timers to dramamine.

What aircraft?
 
should I wait an extra hour and depart at sunset? the forecast for surface winds subsides considerably at 7pm, steady at 9 knots with no gusts. Its usually quite smooth at night.

the plane is our mode of transportation for the weekend and since there is no safety concern, I have a fair amount of get there itis.

I am night current and the aircraft is a PA-28. Will be loaded to gross so that will help with the rough air a bit. It has no wheel fairings and can't even accelerate past Va loaded to gross



PS thanks for the input everyone
 
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Play it by ear, but the diminishing winds give hope.

I'd check Pireps right before your departure time, and if these, as well as the reported winds, do not indicate trouble, then you're good to go.

If at all in doubt, like Ed says, knock it off.
 
Looking at the ADDS Turbulance charts, I'd avoid it with first time passengers. at 11,000' (lowest on the graph) TB is likely.
 
Why guess, or use estimates from somewhere far away and far above? Why don't you head out to the airport and go around the patch once by yourself to see how rough it is? It might be a good use of ten or fifteen minutes. Your passengers will appreciate your thoughtfulness if it's really uncomfortable, and you find some other way to amuse them. On the other hand, if it's become nice and smooth, the clear air right after a front goes through is a sight to behold.
 
wsuffa said:
Looking at the ADDS Turbulance charts, I'd avoid it with first time passengers. at 11,000' (lowest on the graph) TB is likely.
Click to expand...

Here is the chart for the 5pm turb forecast. My flight would be entirely in the green (light), but very close to the yellow (moderate or greater). In the next (8pm) forecast the yellow area recedes farther north and it is clear that my flight would not go so near the yellow areas.

I'm thinking i'll go for it. Safety is not at risk. These are 20 something year old guys and I think they can handle it. I'll have a nice tailwind and the flight should only be 45 min. If I avoided all of the green and yellow areas in this chart I would not be able to fly in 75 percent of the country.

11,000 is a long way to climb but the chart shows just a few patchy spots of light (green) turbulence for 5pm. If its uncomfortable down low i'll just keep the throttle firewalled and the trim rolled back. With the expected tailwind I should be able to make 100 knots over the ground in a Vy climb.

I've been keeping an eye on the pireps. Couple for moderate turbulence
 

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I have found turbulence airmets are like the briefer always telling you vfr not recommended. Most times towards the end time of the airmet you probably won't have any problem. I have also flown when there are no turbulence airmets and gotten the crap kicked out of me. Go fly. Don
 
yakdriver said:
I have found turbulence airmets are like the briefer always telling you vfr not recommended. Most times towards the end time of the airmet you probably won't have any problem. I have also flown when there are no turbulence airmets and gotten the crap kicked out of me. Go fly. Don
Click to expand...

Same here...I bet it won't be that bad especially at 6-7pm.
 
I didn't look at the METARs for the area, so sure maybe the surface wind might settle down later, but the winds aloft aren't forecast to change much. I don't know your local area, but I normally use that as my first estimate of how bumpy it's going to be from winds blowing over ridges and whatnot. (Also lets me know which side of the ridge is going to be smooth air.) Bouncing around at night probably will be less comfortable than during the day. Night time has it's own stress. You don't need to double up.
 
Just saw this, left Southport for Chapel Hill about 1100 today, smooth flight at 6500 to stay above the scattered layer. A little choppy getting into Chapel Hill. Needless to say, I didn't have a tailwind.
 
Ah. I made it all the way up to 5500. Thought i'd never get there. Hopefully my flight home sunday will have light winds so i'll have the coveted net tailwind
 
Just got home tonight, smooth at 5500, could see the Oak Island lighthouse flashing just after Fayetteville, about 10 knot tailwind, decent night landing. Overall excellent flight.
 
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