Engine Failure Probability

Dan Thomas said:
Landing on a road, especially the typical highway, can get you killed quicker than putting it in the trees. Cars and trucks aren't expecting something to appear from above. And if you cause an accident while doing so, the lawyers get all excited and rub their hands together.

Dan
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Who said anything about landing on a road?

You follow roads so rescuers can get to you in less than a week.
 
MAKG1 said:
You follow roads so rescuers can get to you in less than a week.
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Putting expectations on other people to bail you out is the problem. When I fly remote areas, I can survive for 2 weeks without leaving the crash site. I count on only 1 person to help me: Me.
 
Capt. Geoffrey Thorpe said:
Another aircraft that the old man had sold was departing from what is now VLL and lost power on takeoff (blamed on auto fuel in an aircraft not approved for auto fuel by the NTSB ) and put it down on the rail road tracks (about the only open area there is). Occupants were OK, but the aircraft was totaled.
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Obviously he was taking off on 27. On 9, the only successful off-field landing I've heard of was someone in a Cherokee who managed to put it into the Walmart parking lot after hours. During the day, that would not have been an option.

Even on 27, if it quits too soon, you're going into the Home Depot or one of the other stores in the mall there.
 
I'll add that knowing and listening to your airplane is paramount. People downplay this all the time. I know my bird like the back of my hand, I know all the temps, gauge readings, noises, etc. If any little thing doesn't seem right I don't go. How many engine failures had some warning on the ground and someone decided to takeoff anyway? How many people knew they had some maintenance issue that wasn't 100% and they took off anyway? How many people had some warning of an issue in flight and continued?

Just recently I was flying along, everything running perfect, when I noticed my oil pressure was just a little lower than normal although still in the green. I never took my eyes off it again and made for the shop. They initially couldn't find the problem, but I refused to take it until it was found. Turned out to be an oil pressure relief ball spring that had become weak for whatever reason. If it had failed I would have lost oil pressure and eventually the engine.
 
Geico266 said:
What Sac Arrow was trying to say is you are more likely to run out of fuel than have an engine failure.
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I keep a can of gas, a camshaft and an extra piston in my baggage compartment just in case I have an in flight engine failure.




:lol:
 
EdFred said:
Putting expectations on other people to bail you out is the problem. When I fly remote areas, I can survive for 2 weeks without leaving the crash site. I count on only 1 person to help me: Me.
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Umm, how are you going to LEAVE the crash site?

Your plan sounds like you'll just take two weeks longer to die.

Rescuers doesn't necessarily mean someone with an ambulance. It can very well mean someone with a car. Or a working cell phone to get a ride.

If you're going to walk out (which is NOT recommended, as it precludes any possibility of rescue), it's a substantially easier walk when there is a road nearby.
 
MAKG1 said:
Umm, how are you going to LEAVE the crash site?

Your plan sounds like you'll just take two weeks longer to die.

Rescuers doesn't necessarily mean someone with an ambulance. It can very well mean someone with a car. Or a working cell phone to get a ride.

If you're going to walk out (which is NOT recommended, as it precludes any possibility of rescue), it's a substantially easier walk when there is a road nearby.
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How about do the simplest things.

Be talking to ATC, lose a motor, tell them, now they KNOW you went down, where, how many, etc.

406 ELT that so many ***** about installing. I'm turning it "on" on the way down. No chance of it getting damaged and not getting a position sent off.

Spot or similar. That way those that actually care have your position. Good if you are forced to walk.

Some of these numb nuts land in the mountains, in winter, in a pair of thongs. Pack and dress appropriately for the conditions below you.
 
Alexb2000 said:
How about do the simplest things.

Be talking to ATC, lose a motor, tell them, now they KNOW you went down, where, how many, etc.

406 ELT that so many ***** about installing. I'm turning it "on" on the way down. No chance of it getting damaged and not getting a position sent off.

Spot or similar. That way those that actually care have your position. Good if you are forced to walk.

Some of these numb nuts land in the mountains, in winter, in a pair of thongs. Pack and dress appropriately for the conditions below you.
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Orthogonal. If you're 100 miles from the nearest road at high altitude, the AFRCC can know exactly where you're freezing to death, and be unable to help.

Be careful about turning that ELT on too early. You may get a crew looking for you where you were when you turned it on. Yes, we're trained about that, but they don't transmit as frequently as they could, presumably to save the battery. And you need it on for at least a minute or you don't bother, as it won't get a ping out before you crash.

Comms with ATC is not always possible over mountains, particularly if you can't make it above the peaks. But it may be with passing airliners. And if you tell ATC a position, be right. A false position report will have us looking for you for hours or days in the wrong place.

Rescuers are not genies. They need a way to get to you. Most likely, the first line of defense is going to be a ground crew in a large SUV. After that, it's going to be on foot. Aircrews can drop you supplies, but there is some risk in that and they can't pick you up.
 
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MAKG1 said:
Umm, how are you going to LEAVE the crash site?

Your plan sounds like you'll just take two weeks longer to die.

Rescuers doesn't necessarily mean someone with an ambulance. It can very well mean someone with a car. Or a working cell phone to get a ride.

If you're going to walk out (which is NOT recommended, as it precludes any possibility of rescue), it's a substantially easier walk when there is a road nearby.
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I have these things called legs, charts, a compass, a last known position, clothing suitable for temps from -20 to +120, and insulation down to -40 in addition to food/water/shelter/and a bunch of other survival gear. Self reliance - look into it. Oh wait, California. Nevermind.
 
MAKG1 said:
Orthogonal. If you're 100 miles from the nearest road at high altitude, the AFRCC can know exactly where you're freezing to death, and be unable to help.

Be careful about turning that ELT on too early. You may get a crew looking for you where you were when you turned it on. Yes, we're trained about that, but they don't transmit as frequently as they could, presumably to save the battery. And you need it on for at least a minute or you don't bother, as it won't get a ping out before you crash.

Comms with ATC is not always possible over mountains, particularly if you can't make it above the peaks. But it may be with passing airliners. And if you tell ATC a position, be right. A false position report will have us looking for you for hours or days in the wrong place.

Rescuers are not genies. They need a way to get to you. Most likely, the first line of defense is going to be a ground crew in a large SUV. After that, it's going to be on foot. Aircrews can drop you supplies, but there is some risk in that and they can't pick you up.
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I'd turn on the ELT as I get close to the ground and let them extrapolate the line as I descend. The reason is I don't want to have the ELT or antenna damaged on impact and then never have sent a signal, like the Bonanza at Johnson Creek last winter.

If I am below primary radar, I still have a GPS for Lat/Long , and VOR's with DME. One or more of the three will certainly work.

I've yet to be unable to talk to an airliner on guard. Maybe some places, but no where in CONUS that I've flown to date.

What are you suggesting as alternatives?
 
MAKG1 said:
Who said anything about landing on a road?

You follow roads so rescuers can get to you in less than a week.
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Airplanes missing for a long time have sometimes been found not far from roads. If the ELT doesn't work (they fail about half the time) and you drop into the trees or deep snow, it's VERY difficult to see the airplane from the air. The occupants are often injured enough that they're not going anywhere.

There have been a couple of accidents not far from here where the aircraft were not found for three to four years, and only then by accident, one by a rancher rounding up cattle in the fall, the other by an overflying aircraft whose pilot got a flash of sunlight off something in the trees. Both weren't far from logging roads that had some traffic.

Dan
 
I can't believe somebody lives a life afraid of a sprained ankle.

Smh.
 
Most engine failures are caused by lack of fuel or oil. Both are typically preventable.

Most of the remaining mechanical failures usually have some warning, as Alex pointed out. Paying close attention to things is a great idea and will minimize your risk of an engine failure. So will running your engine right and paying close attention to temperatures during operation.
 
Since purchasing the Arrow I make it a habit to leave the headset off while starting up and for the first 2 or 3 minutes. I know what it is supposed to sound like and hopefully will notice if it sounds different. Maybe that's dumb but I plan to keep doing that




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