Dick Collins reminisces about N40RC

Ted DuPuis said:
I agree that I'd like to see diesels and have the option to burn Jet-A without a turbine.



My real question is regarding the 100LL replacement. I'd also be happy burning MoGas. I could adjust my engines to do it just fine.
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I don't hold out much hope for the 100LL replacement. Whatever they come up with will be likely more expensive and even more of a niche product, with even more limited supply.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
You should be able to do a good overhaul or factory reman on your 540 for under $30k all in.
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I have a recent quote from a very reputable shop to O/H a 540 and do a minor conversion on it for ~$23k.

Diesel may be big in other parts of the world, but it won't be here unless the FAA completely botches the drop-in replacement for 100LL.
 
FormerHangie said:
Dick detailed his reasons for quitting here: http://airfactsjournal.com/2011/12/going-out-on-top/ . Basically, he enjoyed flying the airplane cross country in all kinds of weather, and when he felt his age prevented him from doing that any longer, he stopped.
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I completely get that. If I couldn't fly like that, I'd likely hang it up, too. If my budget could only get me a 172, I'd definitely hang it up.

dans2992 said:
I don't hold out much hope for the 100LL replacement. Whatever they come up with will be likely more expensive and even more of a niche product, with even more limited supply.
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kyleb said:
I have a recent quote from a very reputable shop to O/H a 540 and do a minor conversion on it for ~$23k.

Diesel may be big in other parts of the world, but it won't be here unless the FAA completely botches the drop-in replacement for 100LL.
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I agree with Kyle. And I don't think the replacement will get botched.
 
dans2992 said:
I don't hold out much hope for the 100LL replacement. Whatever they come up with will be likely more expensive and even more of a niche product, with even more limited supply.
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How would it be "even more of a niche" than it already is, unless they try to sell both at the same time (which would be rather silly)?
 
dmspilot said:
How would it be "even more of a niche" than it already is, unless they try to sell both at the same time (which would be rather silly)?
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Surely both will be in the pipeline at some point. Do you think everyone will "trust" the new fuel right out of the gate?

Also, I believe many of these formulas have been developed by specific companies. How many refiners will they allow to make the product? How willing will those refineries be to develop a new manufacturing process and how many will just say "the hell with it - it's not worth it for this low volume?"

100LL isn't exactly setting any volume records as it is. The replacement is also likely to be more expensive, even further decreasing demand... Death spiral.

Jet A supplies will be solid as long as there's oil being pumped out of the ground. It would be the "safer" bet if a reasonably economical diesel were available.
 
dans2992 said:
Surely both will be in the pipeline at some point. Do you think everyone will "trust" the new fuel right out of the gate?

Also, I believe many of these formulas have been developed by specific companies. How many refiners will they allow to make the product? How willing will those refineries be to develop a new manufacturing process and how many will just say "the hell with it - it's not worth it for this low volume?"

100LL isn't exactly setting any volume records as it is. The replacement is also likely to be more expensive, even further decreasing demand... Death spiral.

Jet A supplies will be solid as long as there's oil being pumped out of the ground. It would be the "safer" bet if a reasonably economical diesel were available.
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+1. I'd look for some sort of mogas based fuel for the lower compression engines, and a diesel replacement for the high compression ones.
 
So in other words, all of the folks who have higher powered engines should pony up $150k+ for a diesel STC'd engine?
 
Ted DuPuis said:
So in other words, all of the folks who have higher powered engines should pony up $150k+ for a diesel STC'd engine?
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Either that, or figure out some way to backgrade to a mogas derived fuel.

These are not my rules, it's my guess that any avgas replacement is, in short order, going to go up in price sufficiently to where its sales volume will decline, which will lead to more price hikes, until the sales volume becomes so low that availability will start to suffer.

I do believe the same would be true for 100LL if it were kept in production. Leaded fuel creates a number of handling problems in an unleaded world.
 
So, if the replacement fuel is unleaded, fixing the "handling problems", is it possible the price could go _down_?

(Doubt it, but we can always hope)
 
dans2992 said:
So, if the replacement fuel is unleaded, fixing the "handling problems", is it possible the price could go _down_?

(Doubt it, but we can always hope)
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A 100LL replacement may actually have the potential to be cheaper, at least long term. My suspicion is you'll see it be not a ton different than today at first. R&D efforts will need to be recovered, but the oil companies know that if cost is much different it will reduce consumption substantially, and they want to make money.
 
Will there be more than one manufacturer, or will the winning formula remain proprietary to the company that develops it?
 
dans2992 said:
Will there be more than one manufacturer, or will the winning formula remain proprietary to the company that develops it?
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Unknown, it depends on the solution. However I'd guess multiple is more likely, at least eventually.
 
dans2992 said:
So, if the replacement fuel is unleaded, fixing the "handling problems", is it possible the price could go _down_?

(Doubt it, but we can always hope)
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It should reduce the transportation costs. Whether or not that will show up in the retail price I can't say. From looking at the prices in my area, which range from $5.28 to $8.99, it just might be that retailer markup has more to do with what you pay than does cost.
 
The price will be set at what the market will bear. It ain't going to be pretty.
 
ClimbnSink said:
The price will be set at what the market will bear. It ain't going to be pretty.
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BINGO, we have a winner.

The price of oil has nothing to do with the price of fuel.

Unleaded gas is no secret. Just don't add tetra ethyl lead to the gas.

Unleaded high octane race gas has been around for years, at least 24 years that I know of.
 
ClimbnSink said:
The price will be set at what the market will bear. It ain't going to be pretty.
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Zeldman said:
BINGO, we have a winner.

The price of oil has nothing to do with the price of fuel.
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...and unfortunately, we have demonstrated that the market will bear the current 100LL pricing.

The 100LL substitute will not be priced below its current levels, and may likely be higher, as the initial development investment is recovered and the new market is exploited. :(
 
A few of us at Gaston's agreed that the P210 is one of the...if not the...fugliest "mainstream" airplanes ever.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
I completely get that. If I couldn't fly like that, I'd likely hang it up, too. If my budget could only get me a 172, I'd definitely hang it up.
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Oh...I could see me in one of these when I decide I don't want/need to be flying "for real" anymore.

new-BYF-001.jpg
 
timwinters said:
Oh...I could see me in one of these when I decide I don't want/need to be flying "for real" anymore.

new-BYF-001.jpg
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As I've said elsewhere, I count it as a blessing to be one of the tiny percentage of humans ever to have existed on this planet to be able to fly.

I've "stepped up" to Light Sport and my enjoyment factor has never been higher.

But to each their own.
 
I totally get the appeal of light sport, but not for transportation.
 
dans2992 said:
I totally get the appeal of light sport, but not for transportation.
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Most people go LSA because they don't care about transportation, they care about being in the sky.
 
dans2992 said:
I don't hold out much hope for the 100LL replacement. Whatever they come up with will be likely more expensive and even more of a niche product, with even more limited supply.
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A perfectly good 100LL replacement is and has been available from Sunoco for years, they just don't want to touch the market. The racing market is much better and bigger plus doesn't have the liability issues.
 
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