Crap! Go - No Go Decision

bstratt

bstratt

Cleared for Takeoff
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Canuck
The wife and I had planned to leave Chicago and go back to Toronto to spend Easter with the family. I took this Friday (Good Friday) and Monday as vacation time and booked the plane for the four days. Long range weather forecast shows Thursday having good weather the whole way but Friday shows showers, low ceilings and highs in the mid to low 40's, raising the specter of possible icing. My wife is a nervous flyer at best and going to see family is about the only reason I can get her in the plane. Accordingly I want the flight to be as "easy" as possible.

My choices as I see them: 1) take an extra vacation day on Thursday and fly up then; 2) spend 11 hours in the car driving up on Friday.

While very unreliable that far out, Monday is looking good.

I hate these choices!
 
What happens if you book the plane for Thursday now, and then let go of it if the forecast for Friday improves?
 
It's stuff like this that draws me to ownership. Just got to finish up the house remodeling first.
 
I don't *think* the issue here is reserving the plane so much as it is the icing conditions forecast for Friday...

Ownership doesn't stop ice. :)
 
11 hours in a car versus taking an extra day off work? No choice for me. Look at it this way. You've worked hard, and you've earned the extra day off.

Jim G
 
Greebo said:
I don't *think* the issue here is reserving the plane so much as it is the icing conditions forecast for Friday...

Ownership doesn't stop ice. :)
Click to expand...
No, but ownership extends flexibility of scheduling. A Thursday afternoon/evening flight wouldn't have to be scheduled and waiting for later in the day on Friday wouldn't feel like a waste of the plane (my perception, not his).

I have to reserve a plane a week in advance and cross my fingers on the weather lately. And I have no wiggle room on my return time since someone is usually waiting for it when I land.
 
Absolutely Chuck. I am a 1/5 owner so getting the plane is not a problem. The issue is really a trade off - is burning another day's vacation worth the benefit of flying vs driving. I didn't mention that the forecast for Friday also includes the possibility of embedded thunder storms (no Stormscope/Strike finder on board). So between the TS possibility and the real threat of icing, basically I've given up the thought of flying on Friday. As the weather is supposed to turn Thursday evening and continue through Saturday, its either go Thursday morning or drive.

Another niggling concern is that the forecast for Monday may change which may impact on my ability to get back.
 
Barry, aviation forecasts are accurate up to two hours in advance, if that. I wouldn't make any decisions based on a long-term forecast. While the weather can be worse than predicted, it can also be better. And things that aren't forecast may surprise you, such as severe turbulence on a clear sunny day.

My suggestion is to keep your current plans, and not squander a day off unless you'd like an extra day in Toronto. Just be prepared to hop in the car Friday morning if the weather is unsuitable.

Any GA trip is prone to complications, and you always need a backup mode. The list of things that can screw up your trip is endless and keeps growing. I had a new one a couple weeks ago. Missed a couple hours skiing at Taos because a King Air was blocking my hangar egress, and I had to wait for people to show up and move it.

Cheers,
Jon
 
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Barry:

Many a time, any GA pilot has faced your choices. In light of what you're saying, I'd certainly watch the weather, but you need to make your decision one day early. Any chance you could work 1/2 a day Thursday and go late in the day? If you wait until Friday to make that decision, flying may be eliminated as an option unless you could leave Saturday and return a day later.

Best,

Dave
(who hope the forecast and actual weather improve for you.)
 
I did manage to book the plane and the day off for Thursday but I've been watching the weather closely and unfortunately the prognosis for Toronto has deteriorated somewhat. Snow & low cloud Thursday, rain/snow Friday, Sat & Sun, Snow & low cloud- Monday - Temps at ground level ranging from 51F (10C) as a high to 38F (3C) as a low. With no de-ice equipment I'm just too worried about icing while in the clouds. So I cancelled and will drive instead. Sigh!!
 
Barry,

Probably a good call.

Looking at the progs, my guess would be that there is a reasonable chance of making the flight on Thursday.

However, Sunday looks like it could shape up to be ugly.

Score one for K-Ice equipment.
 
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