Now for extra credit: Will the recently enacted changes to healthcare finance increase or decrease the role of the concept 'OPM'. What effect will those proposed changes have on global cost structure. Discuss
As to the "global cost structure" question, it is just the wrong question ... or too short term in scope to be addressed. The global cost structure won't change a bit in the near term because the path we've picked simply does not structurally change the demand profile or the incentives.
The recent changes to healthcare will, eventually, put an upper cap on the spending of OPM. Think Medicaid ... limited budget and, at the individual level, unlimited demand. The result is that it is becoming ever more difficult for Medicaid patients to find service providers (there can be no arguing this point). If you take this to a national system, you get the exact same results.
So as our debt approaches 100% GDP and are taxes become "too high" (whatever we collectively decide that is), we will be FORCED to answer the ultimate question - HOW WILL WE RATION MEDICAL CARE?
Today:
* The wealthy - I'm going to see my doctor for this problem and then find out who the best damn specialist is and see him/her!
* The middle class - I hope I don't canned at work because the treatment cost for my daughters (insert problem) is expensive, but at least she's being cared for well.
* The poor - I've got blood in my urine again, but this time it looks bad, maybe I should go to the ER because I never got around to seeing that doctor who accepts Medicaid 30 miles away.
* System - health care by lottery
Tomorrow (after the new system is in place):
* Everyone - Yippee, I get to see the doctor, get the best medical services and it's free!
* System - damn the torpedoes (budget, debt), health care for everyone!
Day After Tomorrow (after new system in place for a few years):
* Everyone but the rich - What do you mean, a CAT scan is going to take 4 months to get scheduled! I'm sick, I need help!
* The rich - Wow, this new private hospital concept in Cancun is great. A vacation and a tune-up. I really like the idea of the concierge health care plan administered out of the Cayman Islands. It's expensive, but everything is covered, I have access to the worlds best doctors with nothing more than a call and a brief flight on the private jet and I can afford it.
* System - health care rationing by queue (unless you are rich)
So the inevitable is clear:
1) We will ration health care.
2) The rich will always get the best service.
When we collectively accept that reality, we as a nation can finally have an intelligent discussion.
* Do you want to trust the people who brought you trillion dollar deficits, the TSA and the Bob Hoover incident, or do you want to harness the innovation that made this country great.
* No matter what, the rich will get richer, and you and your family won't get all the medical services you want.
What path forward - government bureaucracy or capitalism driven solutions with all its unfairness and inequity? Answer that question and we can discuss global cost structure.
P.S. - The US drives the global health care cost structure. We're the innovators and the consumers. That great red menace China did 200,000 orthopedic operations last year. The great state of IN did more than that last month.