Calling all weather nerds

[Chrisgoesflying]

I'm looking to fly into North Dakota this Friday coming from the north, which means, I'll have to land in either Williston (preferred) or Minot. We have a high pressure over the entire region right now, which is supposed to stick around over the weekend which is great timing to get in on Friday and out on Saturday to fly south, or so I thought. Today, looking at METARs and TAFs, I'm seeing a lot of low ceilings, MVFR at best with the occasional IFR. Every now and then, it goes to VFR (but not very comfortable VFR) for like an hour and then back to MVFR or IFR. Looking at the low clouds forecast on Windy for Friday, the ECMWF forecast says there is no way we can get into Williston and a maybe for Minot (but no way to get out on Saturday). Other models are a bit more optimistic. Why is there so much cloudiness in this high pressure?

 

[WDD]

Flying in from Canada, eh?

Why clouds in the forecast when you now have a High Pressure system and clear skies? Maybe the forecasts are now seeing the High Pressure system not sticking around, and thus the change. And/or the sunny weather produces a lot of thermals (especially if the farmland has been harvested and dark ground is more visible), thermals rise, cool, and clouds. Which goes against the downward air you get with a high pressure.

Just guessing.....

 

[PaulS]

High pressure doesn't necessarily mean good weather in some conditions. Read the forecast discussions, which will give you a better idea of what's going on.

 

[Chrisgoesflying]

Flying in from Canada, eh?

Why clouds in the forecast when you now have a High Pressure system and clear skies? Maybe the forecasts are now seeing the High Pressure system not sticking around, and thus the change. And/or the sunny weather produces a lot of thermals (especially if the farmland has been harvested and dark ground is more visible), thermals rise, cool, and clouds. Which goes against the downward air you get with a high pressure.

Just guessing.....

Yup, flying from Canada. I doubt thermals are to blame. It's 0 F here lol.

 

[NealRomeoGolf]

That high is stuck behind the low that is creating all the weather. I don't think you get the clear out until Saturday.