Bo down Pembroke Pines, FL

[FastEddieB]

Disagree. Both issues are equally relevant to the outcome. Accident was survivable had the pilot not made a decision which was clearly contrary to training. This is pretty much the classic illustration of why pilots are taught not to turn back. And it lead directly to the death of a kid, because the pilot gave away his ability to select his impact point.

I think a fallacy we can easily fall victim to is called “hindsight bias”. In other words, we know how things turned out, but are free to speculate on alternatives while the actual outcome is set in stone.

Imagine if he had gone straight, or nearly so, and skidded across a schoolyard full of kids, or hit a school bus while trying to land on an E/W road. Then we might have been speculating that a turn back to the runway could not have turned out any worse.

That said, much of my flying and instructing was done from E/W runways at N. Perry and Opa Locka. Neither has many options when taking off to the east, though Opa Locka did at the time have at least some open areas - a truck training area and flea market parking.

That said, I think my training in that scenario would have me going straight ahead or turning no more than about 30° to find the best available bad option. But in times of stress, as Warren Zevon sang, “You’re a whole ‘nother person when you’re scared”.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

I think a fallacy we can easily fall victim to is called “hindsight bias”. In other words, we know how things turned out, but are free to speculate on alternatives while the actual outcome is set in stone.

Imagine if he had gone straight, or nearly so, and skidded across a schoolyard full of kids, or hit a school bus while trying to land on an E/W road. Then we might have been speculating that a turn back to the runway could not have turned out any worse.

That said, much of my flying and instructing was done from E/W runways at N. Perry and Opa Locka. Neither has many options when taking off to the east, though Opa Locka did at the time have at least some open areas - a truck training area and flea market parking.

That said, I think my training in that scenario would have me going straight ahead or turning no more than about 30° to find the best available bad option. But in times of stress, as Warren Zevon sang, “You’re a whole ‘nother person when you’re scared”.

Post #148 above looked at these possibilities in some detail for this airport.

Particularly if the run up was at all questionable, this pilot should have been briefing what to do in the event of failure below a specific altitude. Fundamentally made two errors. Ignored results of run-up and did not properly brief take-off.

 

[Ed Haywood]

Imagine if he had gone straight, or nearly so, and skidded across a schoolyard full of kids, or hit a school bus while trying to land on an E/W road. Then we might have been speculating that a turn back to the runway could not have turned out any worse.

The fallacy in that statement is the presumption that either choice had an equal probability of success, and the outcome was thus just random luck. That is wrong. Going straight would have preserved the pilot's ability to control his aircraft, maneuver to avoid obstacles, and select the point of impact, thus lessening the chances of hitting a schoolbus or whatever. Attempting to turn at that altitude caused a stall/spin and ensured loss of control of the aircraft. The pilot clearly made the wrong decision. No speculation needed.

 

[TrueCourse]

Going straight would have preserved the pilot's ability to control his aircraft, maneuver to avoid obstacles, and select the point of impact, thus lessening the chances of hitting a schoolbus or whatever.

This statement implies that the pilot, in a very heightened state of stress, will see choices that are well defined and his execution of his choice will have less damage or loss of life. We can not presume his performance would result it that outcome. Yes, he would have had a better chance of avoiding a stall-spin at a higher altitude, but that’s about it.

 

[TrueCourse]

That said, I think my training in that scenario would have me going straight ahead or turning no more than about 30° to find the best available bad option. But in times of stress, as Warren Zevon sang, “You’re a whole ‘nother person when you’re scared”.

This paragraph is one of the better ways to look at this event. And, repetitive training, mental or operational, is what is supposed to kick in ‘when you’re scared”.