Balloon Crash

It was only a matter of time for something to happen. There are dozens of balloons in the air in different sections of the valley in both the morning and evening. Statistically, something was bound to happen sometime.
 
I spoke with a woman once who gave her husband a balloon ride and stood and watched him jump to his death when the balloon snagged a power line and then caught fire.

This very sad and I would hope it' s not the pilots fault but possibly getting caught in downdraft. (well that still might be his fault)
 
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Brian Austin said:
It was only a matter of time for something to happen. There are dozens of balloons in the air in different sections of the valley in both the morning and evening. Statistically, something was bound to happen sometime.
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Brian, on paper, with zero influence from other factors, your statement would be correct. But factor in crew experience and a host of other things and your statement becomes patently false.

Put another way, statiscally we're all going to suffer, say, a unintentional gear up landing. That is, unless we intervene.
 
Richard said:
Brian, on paper, with zero influence from other factors, your statement would be correct. But factor in crew experience and a host of other things and your statement becomes patently false.

Put another way, statiscally we're all going to suffer, say, a unintentional gear up landing. That is, unless we intervene.
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The more that's in the air, statistically there is a better chance of SOMEONE having a problem, regardless of the source.

You can't factor crew experience, maintenance, etc., in right now. Nor can you look up in the sky and point to one saying "he's doomed today". But STATISTICALLY, with more balloons in the air and more hours put on each balloon, it's more LIKELY that something is going to happen.

Statistically, yes, it's possible every one of us is going to suffer a gear up landing...except me 'cause I only fly fixed gear right now. ;)
 
Brian, would you be so kind to clarify that 1st sentence? As it is written all I understand is that you're saying SOMEONE (which is random) is going to suffer. I can be more precise than that: all of us have the same statistical chance of something happening. That is, my opportunity to learn (euphemism for incident/accident) is not increased because you increased your hours in the air.

Also, reread your last sentence; stats have little to do with possibilities but much to do with probabilities. I'm not arguing semantics, simply that a phrase like, "Anything is possible." is probably true whereas a phrase like, "It's probable you'll be physically injured in an aircraft accident." leaves a lot of wiggle room if one doesn't count those factors I mentioned previously. To reiterate, the thousands of hours flown by others do nothing to increase the chance I will suffer an accident.
 
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Statistically, yes, it's possible every one of us is going to suffer a gear up landing...except me 'cause I only fly fixed gear right now. ;)[/QUOTE]

Ever seen a plane laying on its topside ? Sorry to shatter your stats...
 
I'm thinking of going ballooning in NZ - now I'm wondering if it is a good idea. :(
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You have to analyse all the available data before making an informed decision about participating in any activity, especially those known to be higher risk.
Don't let one accident report put you off or you would never do anything.
Ask around, do some research, checkout the place offering you a ride, determine if the risks involved do or don't exceed your personal limit of risk acceptance. I have accepted all the types of airplane flying I do, carte blanche. I have a much lower tolerance for ultralight flying (but that might change) so I don't do much of that. Apparently now I can live with the risk of parachuting in some forms.
Also in many of my risk acceptances; it is conditional on some factors. I would go balloon flying IF the wind was less than 3kts and forecast to be that way for the duration of the flight plus 2hrs, something like that. The equipment would have to look in good condition, the operator would have to have considerable experience and give me good vibes with his attitude and knowledge.
If you lock out all opportunities based on one incident then you will never be available to do any of these things. That is what 90% of the public who is afraid of flying has done. It seems to be a natural instinct to some extent.
 
Richard said:
Brian, would you be so kind to clarify that 1st sentence? As it is written all I understand is that you're saying SOMEONE (which is random) is going to suffer. I can be more precise than that: all of us have the same statistical chance of something happening. That is, my opportunity to learn (euphemism for incident/accident) is not increased because you increased your hours in the air.
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No, YOUR accident probability hasn't changed. However, the probability of someone having an accident is increased by every balloon in the air.

Richard said:
Also, reread your last sentence; stats have little to do with possibilities but much to do with probabilities. I'm not arguing semantics, simply that a phrase like, "Anything is possible." is probably true whereas a phrase like, "It's probable you'll be physically injured in an aircraft accident." leaves a lot of wiggle room if one doesn't count those factors I mentioned previously. To reiterate, the thousands of hours flown by others do nothing to increase the chance I will suffer an accident.
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The thousands of hours flown by others doesn't affect you, correct. But the thousands of hours flown by others makes it more likely that one of those others may have an accident. If you're in the air with them, you're simply part of that statistical group. Do your chances increase? No. But the entire GROUP'S chances increase as more variables are added.

Put 1 balloon in the air, six days a week, twice a day (which is about what some of them fly). It's unlikely that something will happen but still possible. Put 100 more balloons up on the same timescale (which is typical for the Phoenix and Tucson areas during any period other than high summer). The possibilities of an accident increase, simply because of more balloons in the air. We haven't had a balloon accident here for quite a while.
 
woodstock said:
I'm thinking of going ballooning in NZ - now I'm wondering if it is a good idea. :(
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Not a good idea,
unless you're really up for a challenge and find a ballonist with lots of ACTUAL experience IN NZ. Since they're down under the Earth, the ballons there will hover to the surface and the gondola will need to be accessed by traversing the surface of the balloon. I've not done it myself, but can figure these things out, and am glad to help you. They probably use a rope ladder or maybe a chopper to get into the gondola.

Anyway be careful, it's weird.
 
Dave Krall CFII said:
Not a good idea,
unless you're really up for a challenge and find a ballonist with lots of ACTUAL experience IN NZ. Since they're down under the Earth, the ballons there will hover to the surface and the gondola will need to be accessed by traversing the surface of the balloon. I've not done it myself, but can figure these things out, and am glad to help you. They probably use a rope ladder or maybe a chopper to get into the gondola.

Anyway be careful, it's weird.
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:confused:

:D

well, it's bound to be some beautiful pictures anyway. it's at dawn.
 
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