Bad weather briefs

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redlineshifts

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Redlineshifts
Unforecasted Icing

Got a weather brief this morning, icing level was 8k. We took off and popped in the clouds around 1200 agl. We started picking up ice on the canopy by 2500(filed for 5k).

Pitot heat didn't work and we lost airspeed indications by 3500 msl. The canopy defog also did nothing to help us out. We turned around and returned to our home airfield shortly after, never made it to 5k. We were unable to climb at all without sacrificing airspeed(down to about 90knots ground speed at this point). By the time we were on the approach we were at 70-80'ish knots to maintain.

Flew the ILS back to our airfield, luckily I got a visual on the runway out the right window due to a crosswind. We had to fly beside the runway until we both had a visual out the side windows and put it down.

edited: More tools should have been used to prevent this from happening in the first place. The indicators were out there, and we failed to get them by not utilizing all the tools that are available now. Hopefully someone else learns something from this(I know I did).

Glad everything worked out and center was very helpful.

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Glad everything worked out for you. You need to go post those pictures in the thread where people are debating about whether or not to tackle known icing in a 172.
 
Everskyward said:
Glad everything worked out for you. You need to go post those pictures in the thread where people are debating about whether or not to tackle known icing in a 172.
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With 200hp this got pretty uncomfortable. I'm not sure how it would have ended with 160.

Sent from my SPH-M950 using Tapatalk 2
 
check your scat tubing to the defrost under the panel. about half the time it isnt even there!
 
What did the skewT look like?
 
DrMack said:
What did the skewT look like?
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I'll be honest, skewT isn't something I was familiar with. This was the last skewT out before we took off. They look similar throughout the duration of our flight.

Edit: learned how to use a new tool.
 

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bad photo link on my ipad

edit @5:15 photo link works now.
 
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Good on you for getting down..it takes a decisive PIC to get it done!

Dude you picked up some ICE...be glad you had a fat PA28 wing..in a SR-22 or similar airfoil it would have been over...always watch that OAT probe...its your icing indicator.


Keep in mind the briefer CANT give you the CIP/FIP otherwise known as the icing map.
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/icing/icingnavicg_type=CIPSEVO_00&height=050 great tool, usually overpredicts ice if anything..look at all the "slices" of altitudes from your cruise to the ground to build a picture of what your facing.

according to the last AC you must have composite information that you will not enter icing conditions on your flight..this usually for me involves a pretty clear CIP/FIP ,favorable freezing temps, favorable pireps , favorable TAF metar..and no SIGMET but Airmets are OK if I can verify they arent reality where I am flying.
 
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Kinda fascinated that it was possible for ice to form and stay on the spinner. and the shape of the crystals is a neat look.
 
I'm not very experienced yet with skewT's, but doesn't that one show zero spread slightly below freezing from the surface to about 6000 feet (i.e., icing likely)?
 
MAKG1 said:
I'm not very experienced yet with skewT's, but doesn't that one show zero spread slightly below freezing from the surface to about 6000 feet (i.e., icing likely)?
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Totally. The idea is to see that the ambient temp (red) and dew point (blue) have no spread up to about 7000 so there's your visible moisture. Also note that the temp is below 0 deg-C (skewed red scale). Classic recipe for severe icing.
 
A similar thing happened to me but the ice was gone by the time I landed. Goes to show the weather can be different than predicted, and it can change. Fortunately it's rarely an issue where I fly but you can get icing at higher elevations though.
 
Re: Unforecasted Icing

scottd said:
When did you depart? Out of MHK? You say, "unforecast icing?" Was this just not conveyed to you via FSS?
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1500z. The icing level according to 1800wxbrief was 8k.
 
Re: Unforecasted Icing

redlineshifts said:
1500z. The icing level according to 1800wxbrief was 8k.
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Are you sure they didn't say icing tops? In that skew-T, the T and DP curves diverge around 7000 feet or so, so 8k as the tops of the icing layer would make sense. I wouldn't be caught dead flying in those clouds, you were VERY lucky you were able to make it down in one piece.

edit: never mind, Scott knows whereof he speaks. Listen to him.
 
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Re: Unforecasted Icing

Holy cr_p. The area between 880 and 790 mBar in which the temp = dewpoint at less than 0 C with the very low slope- that's killer. And zero at the surface- bad on you!

I'd say Ice, was predicted. LOTS of it.
What do you think that warm (but not warm enough) nose is, from right to left poking from about minus 10 to -2 between 880 adn 790 mBar? That's LOADS of moisture. I'll climb through that but I have to have a good reason, and I have two fire breathing 220 hp engines and known ice.

No financial relationship, but you don't know what you're reading. Take Scott's course so maybe we won't read about you. It's not about the freezing level. it's about what is where in the atmosphere, by layer.
 
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Re: Unforecasted Icing

scottd said:
Actually the AIRMET was from the freezing level to FL180. The freezing level varied over the AIRMET region from the surface to 8,000 feet. That may have been the confusion. In fact, the Current Icing Product was showing a good chance of SLD at 3,000 feet out of MHK.

This kind of situation is exactly why I try to encourage pilots to look beyond FSS and learn to do this better on their own. For some situations, FSS is just an accident waiting to happen. I have talked to dozens of pilots (I lost count years ago) that ended up in this same situation.
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I won't disagree even slightly. Unfortunately I went with FSS's brief and didn't check out the skewT(honestly wasn't aware of it). I am very confident that FSS said the icing level STARTED at 8k and went up.

Agreed that things turned out well and I was lucky. Will be doing more research and learning on the matter.
 
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Re: Unforecasted Icing

scottd said:
I don't know if this happened, but I often run into pilots that will *hear* 8,000 to FL180 in these situations or the FSS specialists reads it wrong. In reality, the AIRMET was for icing from the freezing level to FL180 with the freezing level varying from the surface to 8,000 feet over the AIRMET. Quite a difference. You hear 8,000 and immediately think that's the base of the icing. You'd have to do an FOIA request to get the FSS tapes to hear what was said.

Either way, I still believe pilots should never solely rely on FSS unless that's the only choice. This kind of event shouldn't happen. There are too many great products to view that tells a more complete story in time and space.
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Thanks for the help/input. I will definitely be more cognizant of how icing is reported and will spend a good amount of time reading on the matter.
 
Re: Unforecasted Icing

scottd said:
You need to definitely get some additional training - it'll help avoid these mishaps in the future. I'll post some details on your flight tomorrow when I get a chance. For now, I'm happy to see you made it back. Even with a certified IPS, this would have been interesting. Stratocumulus clouds are nasty when it comes to ice...I've developed several workshops on them because no instructor will ever train you on their dangers with respect to ice (they've never heard of them) and it's not in any of the FAA curriculum.
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Thanks for any help/insight you can provide.
 
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Well, the group has pretty much beat up on you about flying into known icing (also a regulatory no-no) so I'll let that be.

What I am alarmed about is that you did not preflight the ship.
Verifying that the pitot heat pulls current when turned on is part of the required preflight along with feeling the probe to be sure it is getting warm.
And 'knowing' that the windshield defrost is working.
My best advice is to have a conversation with some old, beat up, CFI who can't walk faster than a shuffle. He is old enough to have seen it all.
Learn from him, grasshopper. And maybe you will last long enough to get old and beat up.
 
Dr. O said:
Well, the group has pretty much beat up on you about flying into known icing (also a regulatory no-no) so I'll let that be.

What I am alarmed about is that you did not preflight the ship.
Verifying that the pitot heat pulls current when turned on is part of the required preflight along with feeling the probe to be sure it is getting warm.
And 'knowing' that the windshield defrost is working.
My best advice is to have a conversation with some old, beat up, CFI who can't walk faster than a shuffle. He is old enough to have seen it all.
Learn from him, grasshopper. And maybe you will last long enough to get old and beat up.
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to be followed by the same practical execution of the flight. It doesn't matter what you think you heard in the forecast if the OAT you observe at the cloud bases is cold enough. And if you are going to fly in the winter, take the OAT out of the airplane, dip it in some ice water and mark where the actual 0C point is.
 
Dr. O said:
What I am alarmed about is that you did not preflight the ship.
Verifying that the pitot heat pulls current when turned on is part of the required preflight along with feeling the probe to be sure it is getting warm.
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That's the first thing I check - Master on, lights and pitot heat on, landing/taxi lights off as soon as I check them, quick walk around the plane to ensure all the other lights are on, a quick pull of the stall warning vane if it's electric, and a grab of the pitot to ensure it's warm before shutting it all off and starting the rest of the preflight, giving the battery a chance to rest before engine start.

The Mooney's pitot heat is actually too good, and I check it earlier than I do on other planes - If I give it the length of time it takes me to walk around the airplane once, it'll burn me, and it has twice (I'm a slow learner sometimes :rofl:).

And 'knowing' that the windshield defrost is working.
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That's hard to know in most airplanes, since you get little to no heat without the engine having been run hard and airspeed high enough to get some air moving. Another thing I like about the Mooney, the defrost actually has a fan in it, so I turn that on right away when I start up to ensure the fan works. It also gets a little bit of heat going prior to takeoff.

My best advice is to have a conversation with some old, beat up, CFI who can't walk faster than a shuffle. He is old enough to have seen it all.
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Unfortunately, most of those "old, beat up" CFII's would have launched on this flight. Most of them don't know about products like the Skew-T, CIP/FIP, etc. because they've gone most of their careers without them and the good ol' airmets and pireps have always worked just fine, right? No, I think the trick is to either go with Scott's courses or find a CFII who is knowledgeable on the products and can show you how they work.

The FAA also should do a better job disseminating information about these new products. If you only pay attention to the FAA's official documentation, I don't think you'd ever know they exist. I certainly wouldn't know about them without PoA. I'd bet that a large majority of CFII's aren't aware of them and don't teach them.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Unfortunately, most of those "old, beat up" CFII's would have launched on this flight. Most of them don't know about products like the Skew-T, CIP/FIP, etc. because they've gone most of their careers without them and the good ol' airmets and pireps have always worked just fine, right? No, I think the trick is to either go with Scott's courses or find a CFII who is knowledgeable on the products and can show you how they work.
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But they would have pointed out some other sources of information. Like looking at the thermometer.

Really, have we gotten to the point that the airplane can only be flown in a manner that was predicted on the computer? Why not just stick with radio controlled toy planes inthat case?
 
JHW said:
But they would have pointed out some other sources of information. Like looking at the thermometer.
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True.

Really, have we gotten to the point that the airplane can only be flown in a manner that was predicted on the computer? Why not just stick with radio controlled toy planes inthat case?
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Not at all - But being a pilot is about making decisions. The more good information you have to make those decisions, the better. I can and do fly steam-gauge airplanes in IMC all the time. I also fly a glass panel airplane. All else being equal, I'll take the glass panel any day of the week. I prefer the Mooney over the DA40 mainly because of its extra performance, and I really wish I could trade with the guy in the next row of hangars that also has a Mooney Ovation, since he's got a G1000 and FIKI on his.

Can I fly steam? Sure, and I do, but I prefer the extra information that the glass panel gives me. Can I fly with paper charts? Sure, but I prefer using my iPad/Stratus for additional/easier situational awareness and onboard weather, especially if I'm not flying the DA40 with its G1000 and onboard weather.

The new products that are available are MUCH better at predicting icing than the old way. Sure, we flew without them before they were available, but we picked up inadvertent ice a lot more often. The more tools we have available to do that, the better, and since we have the tools, we should use them, don't you think??
 
scottd said:
No, but making an accurate assessment prior to departure using a computer is a way to avoid such an encounter - no working themometer needed. There are plenty of times where the surface temperature is near freezing and it's perfectly safe to fly in the clouds above.
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my point is that it should have been obvious to the OP that actual conditions were not matching the forecast (or his interpretation of the forecast) before he ever got into trouble. The tone of the post is that a near death experience was due to an improper forecast.
 
scottd said:
Many SR22s have the inadvertent icing TKS panels that are great for this kind of encounter. They will generally keep the surfaces pretty clean including the windscreen, prop and lifting surfaces.
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I used to fly one professionally for several years ..by far the worst plane I've ever seen in ice, just a trace to light cost me about 30 KIAS in a few moments the wing profile is far closer to a jet ..you cannot get around ice in those ..flew a Fiki Bo , even punching through stratified imc it barley blinked .
 
Here is the closest METAR I can find:


METAR KMHK 101452Z 01012G20KT 5SM -RA BR OVC012 01/M01 A2980=


This alone would have given me extreme caution and a 90% no go. 1 degree above freezing with light rain and mist. You have to assume that it will get colder as you go up, with the clouds at 1200, I would expect ice immediately upon entering them.

I would not have gone into the clouds without knowing the tops and having some form of icing Pirep.

Where there any holes in the cloud cover, that would have been my first choice?

What I wouldn't like about the situation is no outs. Can't really stay underneath with much margin, can't warm up and melt ice, can't be sure to get on top, I don't know the MEA's but I suspect you couldn't even duck back under just to stop the buildup.

IMO no skew-T, or advanced double secret weather briefing needed, the physical situation alone dictates a no go.

BTW- Thanks to the OP for posting, I'm just offering my decision process based on the information not specifically criticizing.
 
JHW said:
my point is that it should have been obvious to the OP that actual conditions were not matching the forecast (or his interpretation of the forecast) before he ever got into trouble. The tone of the post is that a near death experience was due to an improper forecast.
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My interpretation was due to lack of knowledge of some tools that were available.

Airmets and sigmets did not provide an accurate picture of the act actual conditions.

Realizing that we were picking up ice and the pitot failing were almost simultaneous. Believe me when I say it all happened very quickly. The pitot heat worked on preflight.

I have learned a lot from this experience. Hopefully someone else can learn from my mistakes.

A more appropriate thread title would be a standard weather brief isn't always enough.

Sent from my SPH-M950 using Tapatalk 2
 
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I have learned to love the Skew-T and ScottD's materials have been absolutely invaluable in understanding it. There is a great application for iPad/iPhone called Skew-T Log Pro which is always a part of my briefings now.
 
scottd said:
It's actually quite worse than that. Based on Flightaware I believe he departed at 16Z, not 15Z. If that's the case, note that at 1613Z, light freezing rain was being reported. Not uncommon in these situations with very warm cloud tops.

KMHK 101652Z 34010G20KT 4SM -FZRA BR BKN014 OVC018 M01/M03 A2985 RMK AO2 UPE13FZRAB13SNB1553E06 SLP114 P0001 T10061028
KMHK 101636Z 35009G22KT 3SM -FZRA BR BKN009 OVC015 M01/M02 A2984 RMK AO2 UPE13FZRAB13SNB1553E06 CIG 008V012 P0001
KMHK 101620Z 34009G17KT 2SM -FZRA BR BKN009 OVC015 M01/M02 A2983 RMK AO2 UPE13FZRAB13SNB1553E06 CIG 007V012 P0000
KMHK 101613Z 33009G22KT 2SM -FZRA BR BKN011 OVC017 00/M02 A2983 RMK AO2 UPE13FZRAB13SNB1553E06 P0000
KMHK 101558Z 34010G21KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR BKN009 OVC014 00/M02 A2983 RMK AO2 UPE53SNB53 CIG 008V012 P0000
KMHK 101552Z 35011G21KT 2SM UP BR BKN012 OVC017 00/M01 A2982 RMK AO2 RAE49UPB49SNB50E52 SLP104 P0000 T00001011
KMHK 101452Z 01012G20KT 5SM -RA BR OVC012 01/M01 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP095 P0000 60000 T00111011 53022
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We were on the ground and out of the aircraft with it back in the hangar by 1630z. Actual departure time was about 1540z

Sent from my SPH-M950 using Tapatalk 2
 
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have you fixed the pitot heat yet ? Sometimes you can change the elements in the piper's without getting a while new mast
 
redlineshifts said:
My interpretation was due to lack of knowledge of some tools that were available.

Airmets and sigmets did not provide an accurate picture of the act actual conditions.

Realizing that we were picking up ice and the pitot failing were almost simultaneous. Believe me when I say it all happened very quickly. The pitot heat worked on preflight.

I have learned a lot from this experience. Hopefully someone else can learn from my mistakes.

A more appropriate thread title would be a standard weather brief isn't always enough.

Sent from my SPH-M950 using Tapatalk 2
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Bravo for your candor. There is no shame in sharing our mistakes in aviation. It is a gift giving culture. You nearly paid for this present "gift" to us with your life.

I highly recommend that every pilot, especially instrument rated, to cough up the chump change required to purchase Scott D's course on Skew-T/LogP mastery. I promise it will completely change the way you plan all your flights.
 
redlineshifts said:
I'll be honest, skewT isn't something I was familiar with. This was the last skewT out before we took off. They look similar throughout the duration of our flight.

Edit: learned how to use a new tool.
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Oh MY!
 
taters said:
I used to fly one professionally for several years ..by far the worst plane I've ever seen in ice, just a trace to light cost me about 30 KIAS in a few moments the wing profile is far closer to a jet ..you cannot get around ice in those ..flew a Fiki Bo , even punching through stratified imc it barley blinked .
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Was it TKS inadvertent, or full FIKI SR22?
 
scottd said:
. . . There are plenty of times where the surface temperature is near freezing and it's perfectly safe to fly in the clouds above. . . .
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Can you give an example? I am studying all of this, and have learned to love the skew-T, but I more is better!
 
Re: Unforecasted Icing

scottd said:
You need to definitely get some additional training - it'll help avoid these mishaps in the future. I'll post some details on your flight tomorrow when I get a chance. For now, I'm happy to see you made it back. Even with a certified IPS, this would have been interesting. Stratocumulus clouds are nasty when it comes to ice...I've developed several workshops on them because no instructor will ever train you on their dangers with respect to ice (they've never heard of them) and it's not in any of the FAA curriculum.
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Maybe OK in the flatlands but, the safe success of any contemplated flight in a non-K aircraft near mountainous terrain, with conditions anywhere close enough to icing so as to require such detailed meteorological analysis as you discuss, has already entered and is likely to remain in the realm of roulette odds.
 
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Re: Unforecasted Icing

Dave Krall CFII said:
Maybe OK in the flatlands but, the safe success of any contemplated flight in a non-K aircraft near mountainous terrain, with conditions anywhere close enough to icing so as to require such detailed meteorological analysis as you discuss, has already entered and is likely to remain in the realm of roulette odds.
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+1. Some areas are not covered at all by a Skew-t sounding anyway.
 
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