AvGas Sales in Steep Decline

Jay Honeck

Jay Honeck

Touchdown! Greaser!
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Jun 6, 2008
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Ingleside, TX
Display Name
Jay Honeck
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KTFP - Ingleside, TX
The chart says it all. :nonod:

The general trend is not good. Worse, after a nice, post-Great Recession recovery, it appears that lots of us have stopped flying our piston-powered aircraft.

10940984_10155138503680408_782731769413842540_n.jpg


Source: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=c400000001&f=a
 
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I wonder why the big rise from 2009 to 12 then it fell off a cliff?
 
I'm sure there are lots of factors involved. One big one: Charters now rarely use piston powered planes, having switched mostly to turbine powered planes.

Still, despite adding almost 100 million people, sales have declined. That's bad.
 
Avgas usage and PoA post counts appear to be inversely proportional
 
General Population is probably the dumbest number to measure against.

And while my income has not tripled since I started flying, the price of AvGas has.
 
Brenham may be an exception I'm aware, but lately it seems a little more active.

An L-39 flew in the other day and I haven't seen one of those in ages.

Beech 18's are flying in. 195's....some of the more aggressive burning types are showing up more than they were last year and year before. :dunno:
 
N801BH said:
Yup.....

There are more and more experimentals in the air and..... alot burn auto fuel.....

We have seen the light...
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Except they don't account for that considering 20% of the fleet burns 80% of the Avgas. Plus, planes like mine aren't STC'd for it. Your precious mogas locks up the engine. And based on the number of field that aren't selling Mogas, I would say that's not even close to the answer.
 
It's funny -- I'm flying more than ever, but burning less avgas, because we downsized from an O-540 to an O-360-powered aircraft.

So I'm burning 25% less fuel, and flying 25% faster. Added together, that's a lot less avgas.

On the flipside, for most of the 1990s, we burned car gas. Now that we're burning all 100LL, we should be on the up-side of the graph from then.
 
EdFred said:
Except they don't account for that considering 20% of the fleet burns 80% of the Avgas. Plus, plane like mine aren't STCs. Your precious mogas locks up the engine.
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Well.... That 20% surely ain't flying much then...:rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
N801BH said:
Well.... That 20% surely ain't flying much then...:rolleyes::rolleyes:
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Look at the planes that burn it, and look how many aren't flying. It's your big piston twins, and they just aren't being used that much at $6/gallon.
 
EdFred said:
Look at the planes that burn it, and look how many aren't flying. It's your big piston twins, and they just aren't being used that much at $6/gallon.
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That was my point exactly.....

And, whether you want to admit it or not.... Experimentals are growing in fleet population...:yes:
 
EdFred said:
Look at the planes that burn it, and look how many aren't flying. It's your big piston twins, and they just aren't being used that much at $6/gallon.
Click to expand...

I remember when most of the charters were flown in Navajos and 421s.

Now, they're flown in King Airs and PC-12s. I suppose we should be looking at non-airline Jet-A sales, to see if there's a corresponding increase?
 
The chart doesn't just reflect gas consumption, whether that be Avgas or auto gas it doesn't matter. It reflects the pilot population decline and the GA decline in annual flight hours flown.
 
Jay Honeck said:
I remember when most of the charters were flown in Navajos and 421s.

Now, they're flown in King Airs and PC-12s. I suppose we should be looking at non-airline Jet-A sales, to see if there's a corresponding increase?
Click to expand...

It would be interesting to see if sales are segregated that way...
 
N801BH said:
That was my point exactly.....

And, whether you want to admit it or not.... Experimentals are growing in fleet population...:yes:
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Except I'm 99% sure the guys flying mogas RVs didn't sell their Navajo to do so. It has way, way, way more to do with the thirsty planes not flying, or people not flying period. Before Avgas tripled I was flying about triple what I am now.
 
EdFred said:
Except I'm 99% sure the guys flying mogas RVs didn't sell their Navajo to do so. It has way, way, way more to do with the thirsty planes not flying, or people not flying period. Before Avgas tripled I was flying about triple what I am now.
Click to expand...

Yup... All of your comments apply...
 
Let's look at that chart in another year if oil stays around $50 per as some experts suggest it will. It's been another bad winter for flying around here, but if AVGAS continues to decline in price, my corresponding hours will increase, all other factors being equal.
 
iflyvfr said:
Let's look at that chart in another year if oil stays around $50 per as some experts suggest it will. It's been another bad winter for flying around here, but if AVGAS continues to decline in price, my corresponding hours will increase, all other factors being equal.
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Yeah, the 50 cents that it dropped at my home field. Yippie skippie. Triple the price and then drop it less than 10%. Not really going to make much difference at this point.
 
The flight school here starting using mogas a few years back. That's about 30,000 gallons per year of Avgas not being used at one small airport. I'd wager that at least 50% of the aircraft owners here have gone mogas as well. Besides that, isn't the piston fleet shrinking everyday? I can't imagine there are very many new planes being bought to replace the old ones going to the scrap heap.
 
EdFred said:
Yeah, the 50 cents that it dropped at my home field. Yippie skippie. Triple the price and then drop it less than 10%. Not really going to make much difference at this point.
Click to expand...

91 octane mogas = $2.45 /gal
100ll AV gas= $5.75 /gal

Do the math. ;)
 
Geico266 said:
91 octane mogas = $2.45 /gal
100ll AV gas= $5.75 /gal

Do the math. ;)
Click to expand...


Maybe you need to actually read what I said in a previous post. No STC for my plane. And where am I going to get a 4 seat 1250lb useful load Experimental for under 60k?

And Mogas here is nowhere near $2.45 The closes airport with mogas is 30nm away and it's $4.75. And there's only 5 fields within 100nm that even have it.

Sometimes the amount of dumb I see on here astounds me.
 
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Well, I did my part, going from about 15 gph of AVGAS in a Cirrus to about 6 gph of (mostly) MOGAS in my Sky Arrow.

With ROTAX sales through the roof, that's got to play a role as well.
 
Traded a beech Travelair 20 gph for my liberty 6 gph,now that price of fuel is down flying more than ever. Will be interesting to see what happens to the figures after this year.
 
Some factors seem to be affecting 100LL sales that have nothing to do with crude oil price. The only time this chart flattens out the least bit is around 1998, when we had $10 oil.
During the time period of this chart, avgas sales looks to be on a constant decline. Crude oil prices, the raw material, had big ups and downs during this time.
 
EdFred said:
Maybe you need to actually read what I said in a previous post. No STC for my plane. And where am I going to get a 4 seat 1250lb useful load Experimental for under 60k?

And Mogas here is nowhere near $2.45 The closes airport with mogas is 30nm away and it's $4.75. And there's only 5 fields within 100nm that even have it.

Sometimes the amount of dumb I see on here astounds me.
Click to expand...

Maybe you need to not get get your panties in a wad.

Why be a prick about it? A lot of people burn "precious" mogas. You can't, so big deal. We all know that some engines can't burn it, but there is a crap load of engines that can, and do. Why would that not be a contributor?
 
It looks like it was recovering nicely post 2008 until 2013. (Not what it was in the '80s but hey! neither am I.) Then the cliff last year. I'd be suspicious of a data error just looking at the chart with no knowledge of the provider of data. (I'm not saying anyone did anything nefarious.) Just based on analyzing data a fair amount my first reaction is data error.

Anyway, I'm flying more this year than last. So far. And I plan to do more.

It ain't cheap, but it an't gettin' any cheaper so I'll do it while I can.

John
 
OkieFlyer said:
Maybe you need to not get get your panties in a wad.

Why be a prick about it? A lot of people burn "precious" mogas. You can't, so big deal. We all know that some engines can't burn it, but there is a crap load of engines that can, and do. Why would that not be a contributor?
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Geico thinks the solution to everything is Mogas and experimental. He's a broken record about it The problem is, the rest of the world doesn't exist for him. "Just get an RV!" But lets to the math on that. I want a 4 seat plane with a useful load of 1250 pounds. SO my only option is the RV10. I can pick one of those up for around 200k. (I'm not building it myself - and even if I did the number is still $200k) What a deal. I can pick up a Comanch or Bo for 50k. That leaves 150k worth of avgas to burn. Even at $6/gallon and running rich at 15gph that's 1600+ hours of fuel to burn before I've even bought the RV10, and at the same out of pocket cost, I have flown the RV a big fat 0 hours.

Using $6 vs $2.50 and a more realistic 13gph, the break even point is at about 3300 hours. I will never have 3300 hours in my logbook unless I get paid to fly.
 
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EdFred said:
Geico thinks the solution to everything is Mogas and experimental. He's a broken record about it The problem is, the rest of the world doesn't exist for him. "Just get an RV!" But lets to the math on that. I want a 4 seat plane with a useful load of 1250 pounds. SO my only option is the RV10. I can pick one of those up for around 200k. (I'm not building it myself - and even if I did the number is still $200k) What a deal. I can pick up a Comanch or Bo for 50k. That leaves 150k worth of avgas to burn. Even at $6/gallon and running rich at 15gph that's 1600+ hours of fuel to burn before I've even bought the RV10, and at the same out of pocket cost, I have flown the RV a big fat 0 hours.

Using $6 vs $2.50 and a more realistic 13gph, the break even point is at about 3300 hours. I will never have 3300 hours in my logbook unless I get paid to fly.
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I agree that RV-10s are not a money saving option for anyone, yet. (Give them another 20 years, and they will be cheap.)

There's always the Velocity, however. If I had a need for a 4-seater, I would be flying one.

http://www.barnstormers.com/Experimental, Velocity Classifieds.htm
 
EdFred said:
Geico thinks the solution to everything is Mogas and experimental. He's a broken record about it The problem is, the rest of the world doesn't exist for him. "Just get an RV!" But lets to the math on that. I want a 4 seat plane with a useful load of 1250 pounds. SO my only option is the RV10. I can pick one of those up for around 200k. (I'm not building it myself - and even if I did the number is still $200k) What a deal. I can pick up a Comanch or Bo for 50k. That leaves 150k worth of avgas to burn. Even at $6/gallon and running rich at 15gph that's 1600+ hours of fuel to burn before I've even bought the RV10, and at the same out of pocket cost, I have flown the RV a big fat 0 hours.

Using $6 vs $2.50 and a more realistic 13gph, the break even point is at about 3300 hours. I will never have 3300 hours in my logbook unless I get paid to fly.
Click to expand...


You keep using fuel only as the calculator.... You need to use the ENTIRE cost structure for owning a certified over an experimental...

For instance.. I can buy 8 NEW pistons, rings, rod and main bearings, full set of gaskets.. Basically everything I need to ZERO time my motor... In the certified world, you get just 12 new fine wire spark plugs for the same amount of money........

Pick your poison....:rolleyes:.......:)
 
N801BH said:
You keep using fuel only as the calculator.... You need to use the ENTIRE cost structure for owning a certified over an experimental...

For instance.. I can buy 8 NEW pistons, rings, rod and main bearings, full set of gaskets.. Basically everything I need to ZERO time my motor... In the certified world, you get just 12 new fine wire spark plugs for the same amount of money........

Pick your poison....:rolleyes:.......:)
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And then...there's avionics.

My new panel cost $11,500, in the RV-8A, and is more sophisticated than the $50,000 panel I was quoted for my Piper.

The difference is astounding. And sad.
 
N801BH said:
You keep using fuel only as the calculator.... You need to use the ENTIRE cost structure for owning a certified over an experimental...

For instance.. I can buy 8 NEW pistons, rings, rod and main bearings, full set of gaskets.. Basically everything I need to ZERO time my motor... In the certified world, you get just 12 new fine wire spark plugs for the same amount of money........

Pick your poison....:rolleyes:.......:)
Click to expand...

RV-10 has an O-540 in it. I have an O-540 in mine. Pistons and rings cost, oh, exactly the same.
 
All the experimental stuff is really cool. I love the way RVs look and I'd really like to fly one someday. And Ben your plane looks like a real hoot! And a lovely piece of work.

But 4 passenger experimentals are rare (and/or expensive) and I still need 3 seats. And my wife is interested in something with room and load for 6. So now I'm in the twin range (or Bo, 210, Malibu). I'm out of luck for rentals around here as well.

Where's all the cool experimental stuff for me?

John
 
jsstevens said:
All the experimental stuff is really cool. I love the way RVs look and I'd really like to fly one someday. And Ben your plane looks like a real hoot! And a lovely piece of work.

But 4 passenger experimentals are rare (and/or expensive) and I still need 3 seats. And my wife is interested in something with room and load for 6. So now I'm in the twin range (or Bo, 210, Malibu). I'm out of luck for rentals around here as well.

Where's all the cool experimental stuff for me?

John
Click to expand...

Twin-velocity.jpg


The twin Velocity! :yes:
 
EdFred said:
Geico thinks the solution to everything is Mogas and experimental. He's a broken record about it The problem is, the rest of the world doesn't exist for him. "Just get an RV!" But lets to the math on that. I want a 4 seat plane with a useful load of 1250 pounds. SO my only option is the RV10. I can pick one of those up for around 200k. (I'm not building it myself - and even if I did the number is still $200k) What a deal. I can pick up a Comanch or Bo for 50k. That leaves 150k worth of avgas to burn. Even at $6/gallon and running rich at 15gph that's 1600+ hours of fuel to burn before I've even bought the RV10, and at the same out of pocket cost, I have flown the RV a big fat 0 hours.

Using $6 vs $2.50 and a more realistic 13gph, the break even point is at about 3300 hours. I will never have 3300 hours in my logbook unless I get paid to fly.
Click to expand...

I hear ya. I just didn't see any need to call anyone stupid. The thread has zero to do with your needs or wants, however, a growing experimental fleet and greater numbers of folks switching to mogas does seem to have some validity in regards to the decline in avgas sales. Between the two view points expressed by you and Geico, his sounded at least somewhat credible, and you sounded like you were just being an azz. That's the reason for my less than friendly reply and I appologize if I mistook your meaning.

My point is, just because you can't make use of an experimental or mogas, doesn't mean there aren't oodles of other people who can, and in fact are. Therefor, whether Geico is a broken record or not, the viewpoint makes some sense in this discussion about declining avgas sales. Your personal needs are moot in this discussion, however.

P.S. that velocity is one of few experimentals that tickles my fancy. Bitchin!
 
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I was all hot to trot for an RV-8 until I rode in the back of one. I don't fit. Sure wouldn't want to ride very far back there.

For me, an 8 would only serve my purpose if I were up front all the time with a munchkin or no one in the back.

After I struggled and got out, we went up in the skywagon and I felt like OMG! this is like a DC-3 compared to that! :redface:
 
Geico266 said:
Or pilots have wised up and are burning mogas?
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Oil field workers and utility planes. The oilfields have basically shut down most all of their programs and laid everyone off, watch it get worse.


Yeah, all the "cheap" planes are going away, I wonder what the Jet A chart looks like?
 
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