Are NWS marine advisories useful to pilots?

[scottd]

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[Henning]

I prefer FNMOC myself to NWS for maritime activity, better info and world wide.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/public/

 

[Henning]

I don't really look for advisories and warnings, I just take the raw data and interpolate what will be/happen. I'm usually as correct as anyone else.

 

[Richard]

So you are telling me that you would have known that there was a chance of waterspouts off the SC/GA coast the other day based on the raw data?

Maybe not for that one data point. But one would be hard pressed to be wronger when it comes to guessing based on the raw data.

To further address your point, having seen first hand the conditions which are likely for the formation, yes, that experience is at least equal to the chance as implied by the data. Experience sometimes trumps numerical data.

To answer the original question, yes, I often do at least glance at the marine data. As example, sea surface temps can be very useful information.

 

[Henning]

So you are telling me that you would have known that there was a chance of waterspouts off the SC/GA coast the other day based on the raw data?

Whenever there is convective activity in that area it's a given there are chances of water spouts, it wasn't a magical prediction, it was a box stock warning that comes with a given set of conditions. It really doesn't do me any good either as it doesn't tell me exactly where they'll hit. "A chance of water spouts" will not precipitate a "No Go" condition for me, so it is useless info since I stay VFR below the deck on days with TRs and heavy convection. If I see one I avoid it. If I'm on a boat, what the heck am I going to do about it anyway? It's not like there's some magical preventative measure one can take that wards off waterspouts and as I said, this warning will not cause me a "No Go" decision.

 

[Henning]

To each his own, I guess. Personally, looking out the windscreen at three or four waterspouts crossing my planned route would give me some cause for concern. Knowing about an increased risk of waterspouts may cause me to fly a different route perhaps. All information that can be useful to a pilot avoid adverse weather.

??? I've been flying and boating around water spouts for many years now, and a miss is as good as a mile, which is why I stay underneath so I can see them as they develop and drive away from the path I predict. As long as you don't drive right into it, you're good, maybe a bit of a bump. Sailboats we reef sail and hard vang the boom with a preventer as well. Sometimes they'll blow out a sail and damage the rig, but usually not, not if you have the appropriate canvas up and a preventer on. East and West coast waterspouts just don't gain the intensity of tornadoes in the midwest or those spawned by hurricanes.
I passed within 4 miles of the OKC tornado in a Cherokee 180 heading from TX-ND, I wish I would have had a camera, and I wasn't the only one there either. The ride wasn't bad nor was the wind. If you remain in VMC, you're in pretty good condition, and if you pay attention to what the clouds are doing, even at 90 kts you can stay well clear of any Tysonesque punch.

As for the warning value, I always look out for weather anomalies so again, the warning value to me is low. It says basically "Be careful, water spouts are more likely to happen today than the average day." Well good, I do that anyway, I don't just blithely fly along....

That warning is much like AIRMET Sierra or whatever that icing one is over the NE most of the winter. Yes, the possibility exists, however it is not assured that it will happen so you don't make a go/no-go decision based on that. You have to look at what is actually happening right now.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

<SNIP>To each his own, I guess. Personally, looking out the windscreen at three or four waterspouts crossing my planned route would give me some cause for concern. Knowing about an increased risk of waterspouts may cause me to fly a different route perhaps. All information that can be useful to a pilot avoid adverse weather.

Flying- I'd probably avoid the area.

Boats/ships- I tend to side with Henning here. You can usually see and avoid waterspouts. Thunderstorms? Reef down and avoid the shore line. If the boat or ship is built well and I keep my head on straight, nothing will fall off.

 

[Henning]

That's usually what I do as well. No need to add another level of complexity to the flight. Simply avoid the area (if possible) or keep a close eye out for them if you must take that route.

Yes, thank you, I meant Airmet Zulu, it, as well as Sierra (same thing goes for the NWS warning you gave, I've seen it 1000+ times without the warning bearing fruit) are Airmets I have received so frequently when the actual conditions did not exist, that I just ignore them outside of the fact of noting that I should be prepared for the eventuality, which if I am flying at the time they are active, I typically am. FSS typically treats them nonchalantly as a standard read rather than emphasized in the briefing, current weather I'm listening for.

That NWS advisory and picture though at the time of the briefing, nor at the time your XM may receive similar data, is that information real time current to your flying. Someone may choose a path into what develops rather that going to or where the next will develop instead of where what has been and gone. There are many times, especially when flying into So Fla from north doesn't bear the option of going around. Many times I've had to hunt my way through with the XM giving me old and erroneous information.

Again, it's all low value information if it's not something that creates a "Go/No-Go" decision because rerouting to that information will not give you any advantage in 20 minutes from the data point in the vast majority of situations.

Now you can tell me about more information I can get... Guess what, I ain't got time for that. Yep, I said it. It takes me 10 minutes to make a "Go/No-Go" decision on a flight with regards to weather. I either can make it or can't. That NWS warning would not change that if I had the info it was giving. It may be attached to a system that I would have previously found out about that may have caused a "No-Go" decision, again rendering the NWS information useless.

You say I should do this major all encompassing analysis of the weather, and maybe I should, but typically, I'm by myself or am with a pilot more conservative than myself, or I have a boss who is telling me to get going, so my "No Gos" have to be defensible and I only have a limited amount of time.

I'm not saying you're wrong for giving the information, not at all. I just pointed out what I look at and why. I can't be bothered for studying the weather that intently since I'll most likely stay under it where I'm comfortable and where I can see what's going on if it's probably going to spawn severe weather, or I may dodge around at altitude to remain VMC. Typically ATC is pretty good about my deviation requests. "Center, 04Y, like to deviate around a bit to remain VMC, I'd like to keep an eye on these big clouds" and they'll give me a clearance + or - 45 degrees or so. By staying visual I can make a "Go" call for transiting the system. If the system is such that I will not be able to stay visual, and I do not have onboard radar, then I make a "No Go" call on the flight and walk away from the job if I have to. Wouldn't be the first time.

That level of information is brought to me in my first phone call to FSS about an hour prior to my flight & all flights are scheduled "Go" until 1hr before flight.

I am glad you point out many of the various weather products, each of them has a use, and I may use depending on the circumstance. I was just stating what I use in my own forecasting and that in that circumstance, I would not rate that warning highly because it gives me very little information to work with to make a high value judgment call.

For the most part, FSS does as well as anybody giving me weather info, and like I said, I don't have the time to do an exhaustive weather search and use every product every flight. I chose the one or two that will prove me most valuable for a particular flight. For me personally, the FNMOC info will give more information of value to me to do my own forecasting rather than the NWS site which BTW, hasn't ever been a seaman friendly interface. Most boats are on slow satellite service which is even slower when the weather is bad.... click....click....click.....click......click.....click...Ah!!! Some information.
Sorry for the digression, you have connections at NWS though....